Shih-Yu Wang

Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013–2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint

The 2013–2014 California drought was initiated by an anomalous high-amplitude ridge system. The anomalous ridge was investigated using reanalysis data and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). It was found that the ridge emerged from continual sources of Rossby wave energy in the western North Pacific starting in late summer and subsequently intensified into winter. The ridge generated a surge of wave energy downwind and deepened further the trough over the northeast U.S., forming a dipole. The dipole and associated circulation pattern is not linked directly with either El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Pacific Decadal Oscillation; instead, it is correlated with a type of ENSO precursor. The connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor has become stronger since the 1970s, and this is attributed to increased greenhouse gas loading as simulated by the CESM. Therefore, there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013–2014 and the associated drought.

Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Rainfall variation of the East Asian summer monsoon has long been believed to be caused by the transition of weather regimes in company with the evolution of monsoon circulation. However, this claim was neither comprehensively analyzed nor convincingly demonstrated. Four datasets [Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) rainfall, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 6-h surface analysis maps, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 6-h tropical cyclone tracks] were used to depict the climatology of the monsoon rainfall variation and to explore the cause of this variation, particularly through the relationship between the seasonal evolution of the monsoon circulation and the associated synoptic disturbance activity. The monsoon life cycle in the southern part of East Asia is basically developed by the sequential passages of the mei-yu rainband in early summer, the western Pacific subtropical high in midsummer, and the tropical cyclone activit...

Interannual Variation of the Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Abstract An effort was made to search for relationships between interannual variations of population, lifetime, genesis locations, and intensity of named typhoons and numbered tropical depressions in the western North Pacific during the 1979–2002 period. To support this research task, climatological relationships of tropical cyclone characteristics were also investigated for these cyclones. Major findings of this study are summarized as follows: Climatology: Measured by the intensity scale of the Japan Meteorological Agency, three groups of tropical cyclones were identified in terms of population versus intensity: Group 1 [tropical depression (TD) + typhoon (TY)], Group 2 (strong + very strong TY), and Group 3 (catastrophic TY). This group division coincides with that formed in terms of lifetime of tropical cyclones versus intensity. Weak cyclones (Group 1) have a larger population than strong cyclones (Group 3), while the former group has shorter lifetime than the latter group. For genesis locations, the...

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate Californias climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

Role of the Monsoon Gyre in the Interannual Variation of Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific

Abstract The south-southeast periphery of a monsoon gyre in the western North Pacific (WNP) is a favorable region for tropical cyclone/tropical depression (TC/TD) genesis. The TC genesis frequency is interannually modulated by the WNP monsoon circulation in response to a change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). These findings from previous studies lead to the hypothesis that the effect of tropical Pacific SST changes on the WNP TC/TD genesis frequency is accomplished through a modulation of the monsoon gyre activity by WNP monsoon circulation variations. The 6-h TC/TD track records and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2002 were analyzed to test this hypothesis. Results show that roughly 70% of WNP TC/TD geneses are linked to monsoon gyres. The interannual variation of these geneses is highly correlated (with a correlation coefficient of 0.89) with that of monsoon gyre activity, which is out-of-phase with the interannual variation of SST over the NOAA Nino-3 region.

Enhancement of Afternoon Thunderstorm Activity by Urbanization in a Valley: Taipei

Abstract Located in northern Taiwan, Taipei is a metropolis surrounded by hills and mountains that form a basin in which two river valleys funnel the surface airflow of this basin to the open sea. Because of the southwest monsoon, summer is a dry season in northern Taiwan but is the season of maximum rainfall in the Taipei basin. This unusual summer rainfall maximum in Taipei is largely produced by afternoon/evening thunderstorms—in particular, on the downwind side and slopes of mountains south of the city. The population in the city of Taipei and the county in which this city is located has more than tripled during the past four decades while land use for building and surface construction increased by a factor of 3. This urbanization may contribute to an increase of 1.5°C in daily mean temperature, a decrease of 1°C in daily temperature range, an increase of more than 67% in the frequency of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, and an increase of 77% in rainfall generated by thunderstorms. These findings may...

Impact of the Intraseasonal Variability of the Western North Pacific Large-Scale Circulation on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Abstract The life cycle of the Southeast Asian–western North Pacific monsoon circulation is established by the northward migrations of the monsoon trough and the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone, and is reflected by the intraseasonal variations of monsoon westerlies and trade easterlies in the form of an east–west seesaw oscillation. In this paper, an effort is made to disclose the influence of this monsoon circulation on tropical cyclone tracks during its different phases using composite charts of large-scale circulation for certain types of tracks. A majority of straight-moving (recurving) tropical cyclones appear during weak (strong) monsoon westerlies and strong (weak) trade easterlies. The monsoon conditions associated with straight-moving tropical cyclones are linked to the intensified subtropical anticyclone, while that associated with recurving tropical cyclones is coupled with the deepened monsoon trough. The relationship between genesis locations and track characteristics is evolved from ...

Observational and Synoptic Analyses of the Winter Precipitation Regime Change over Utah

AbstractPrevious studies have indicated a widespread decline in snowpack over Utah accompanied by a decline in the snow–precipitation ratio while anecdotal evidence claims have been put forward that measured changes in Utah’s snowpack are spurious and do not reflect actual change. Using two distinct lines of investigation, this paper further analyzes the winter precipitation regime in the state of Utah. First, by means of observation-based, gridded daily temperature, precipitation, and remotely sensed data, as well as utilizing a climatological rain–snow threshold (RST) temperature method, the precipitation regime of Utah was scrutinized. Second, a comprehensive synoptic analysis was conducted as an alternate means that is independent from surface observations. It was found that the proportion of winter (January–March) precipitation falling as snow has decreased by 9% during the last half century, a combined result from a significant increase in rainfall and a minor decrease in snowfall. Meanwhile, observ...

The Late-Spring Maximum of Rainfall over the U.S. Central Plains and the Role of the Low-Level Jet

Abstract The seasonal rainfall over the U.S. central plains features a late-spring maximum. A spring–fall annual mode revealed from the empirical orthogonal function analysis on rainfall delineates a maximum center over the central plains that coincides with the large late-spring rainfall. This paper examines the large-scale dynamical and hydrological processes in forming the rainfall center. The NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis 2 data reveal that the baroclinic structure of the continental-scale circulation during late spring (May and June) induces a vertically out-of-phase divergent circulation forming strong convergence of water vapor flux over the central plains. Such circulation features generate concentrated convective activity in this region. The upper-level anticyclone development with the North American monsoon in July replaces the late-spring baroclinic structure and, in turn, reduces the convective activity. The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) plays a role in the downscaling process ...

North Atlantic hurricanes contributed by African easterly waves north of the African easterly jet

Abstract A majority of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic develop from African easterly waves (AEWs), which originate along both the southern and northern flanks of the midtropospheric African easterly jet (AEWS and AEWn, respectively). The purpose of this note is to identify the contribution of AEWSs and AEWns to North Atlantic tropical cyclones that develop from AEWs. Applying a manual backtracking approach to identify the genesis locations of AEWS, it was found that the population ratio of tropical cyclones formed from AEWSs to those formed from AEWns is 1:1.2. Because the population ratio of AEWSs to AEWns is 1:2.5, the conversion rate of the former AEWS to tropical cyclones is twice as effective as the latter waves. In addition, it was found that AEWns travel farther and take longer to transform into tropical cyclones than AEWSs, which is likely because the AEWns are drier and shallower than AEWSs. An analysis of various terms in the moisture and vorticity budgets reveals that the monsoon trough...