Siddhartha Saha

Influenza seasonality and vaccination timing in tropical and subtropical areas of southern and south-eastern Asia

OBJECTIVE To characterize influenza seasonality and identify the best time of the year for vaccination against influenza in tropical and subtropical countries of southern and south-eastern Asia that lie north of the equator. METHODS Weekly influenza surveillance data for 2006 to 2011 were obtained from Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Weekly rates of influenza activity were based on the percentage of all nasopharyngeal samples collected during the year that tested positive for influenza virus or viral nucleic acid on any given week. Monthly positivity rates were then calculated to define annual peaks of influenza activity in each country and across countries. FINDINGS Influenza activity peaked between June/July and October in seven countries, three of which showed a second peak in December to February. Countries closer to the equator had year-round circulation without discrete peaks. Viral types and subtypes varied from year to year but not across countries in a given year. The cumulative proportion of specimens that tested positive from June to November was > 60% in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Thus, these tropical and subtropical countries exhibited earlier influenza activity peaks than temperate climate countries north of the equator. CONCLUSION Most southern and south-eastern Asian countries lying north of the equator should consider vaccinating against influenza from April to June; countries near the equator without a distinct peak in influenza activity can base vaccination timing on local factors.

Dynamics of influenza seasonality at sub-regional levels in India and implications for vaccination timing.

Background Influenza surveillance is an important tool to identify emerging/reemerging strains, and defining seasonality. We describe the distinct patterns of circulating strains of the virus in different areas in India from 2009 to 2013. Methods Patients in ten cities presenting with influenza like illness in out-patient departments of dispensaries/hospitals and hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory infections were enrolled. Nasopharangeal swabs were tested for influenza viruses by real-time RT-PCR, and subtyping; antigenic and genetic analysis were carried out using standard assays. Results Of the 44,127 ILI/SARI cases, 6,193 (14.0%) were positive for influenza virus. Peaks of influenza were observed during July-September coinciding with monsoon in cities Delhi and Lucknow (north), Pune (west), Allaphuza (southwest), Nagpur (central), Kolkata (east) and Dibrugarh (northeast), whereas Chennai and Vellore (southeast) revealed peaks in October-November, coinciding with the monsoon months in these cities. In Srinagar (Northern most city at 34°N latitude) influenza circulation peaked in January-March in winter months. The patterns of circulating strains varied over the years: whereas A/H1N1pdm09 and type B co-circulated in 2009 and 2010, H3N2 was the predominant circulating strain in 2011, followed by circulation of A/H1N1pdm09 and influenza B in 2012 and return of A/H3N2 in 2013. Antigenic analysis revealed that most circulating viruses were close to vaccine selected viral strains. Conclusions Our data shows that India, though physically located in northern hemisphere, has distinct seasonality that might be related to latitude and environmental factors. While cities with temperate seasonality will benefit from vaccination in September-October, cities with peaks in the monsoon season in July-September will benefit from vaccination in April-May. Continued surveillance is critical to understand regional differences in influenza seasonality at regional and sub-regional level, especially in countries with large latitude span.

Differences in Influenza Seasonality by Latitude, Northern India

The seasonality of influenza in the tropics complicates vaccination timing. We investigated influenza seasonality in northern India and found influenza positivity peaked in Srinagar (34.09°N) in January–March but peaked in New Delhi (28.66°N) in July–September. Srinagar should consider influenza vaccination in October–November, but New Delhi should vaccinate in May–June.

Rates of respiratory virus-associated hospitalization in children aged <5 years in rural northern India

Summary Objectives Though respiratory viruses are thought to cause substantial morbidity globally in children aged <5 years, the incidence of severe respiratory virus infections in children is unknown in India where 20% of the worlds children live. Methods During August 2009–July 2011, prospective population-based surveillance was conducted for hospitalizations of children aged <5 years in a rural community in Haryana State. Clinical data and respiratory specimens were collected. Swabs were tested by RT-PCR for influenza and parainfluenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus, coronaviruses, and adenovirus. Average annual hospitalization incidence was calculated using census data and adjusted for hospitalizations reported to occur at non-study hospitals according to a comunity healthcare utilization survey. Results Of 245 hospitalized children, respiratory viruses were detected among 98 (40%), of whom 92 (94%) had fever or respiratory symptoms. RSV accounted for the highest virus-associated hospitalization incidence (34.6/10,000, 95% CI 26.3–44.7) and 20% of hospitalizations. There were 11.8/10,000 (95% CI 7.9–18.4) influenza-associated hospitalizations (7% of hospitalizations). RSV and influenza virus detection peaked in winter (November–February) and rainy seasons (July), respectively. Conclusion Respiratory viruses were associated with a substantial proportion of hospitalizations among young children in a rural Indian community. Public health research and prevention in India should consider targeting RSV and influenza in young children.

Divergent seasonal patterns of influenza types A and B across latitude gradient in Tropical Asia

Influenza circulation in tropics and subtropics reveals a complex seasonal pattern with year‐round circulation in some areas and biannual peaks in others.

The cost of acute respiratory infections in Northern India: a multi-site study

BackgroundDespite the high mortality and morbidity resulting from acute respiratory infections (ARI) globally, there are few data from low-income countries on costs of ARI to inform public health policy decisions We conducted a prospective survey to assess costs of ARI episodes in selected primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare facilities in north India where no respiratory pathogen vaccine is routinely recommended.MethodsFace-to-face interviews were conducted among a purposive sample of patients with ARI from healthcare facilities. Data were collected on out-of-pocket costs of hospitalization, medical consultations, medications, diagnostics, transportation, lodging, and missed work days. Telephone surveys were conducted two weeks after medical encounters to ask about subsequent missed work and costs incurred. Costs of prescriptions and diagnostics in public facilities were supplemented with WHO-CHOICE estimates of hospital bed costs. Missed work days were assigned cost based on the national annual per capita income (US

Evaluation of case definitions for estimation of respiratory syncytial virus associated hospitalizations among children in a rural community of northern India.

1,104). Non-medically attended ARI cases were identified from an ongoing community-based ARI surveillance project in Faridabad.ResultsDuring September 2012-March 2013, 1766 patients with ARI were enrolled, including 451 hospitalized patients, 1056 outpatients, and 259 non-medically attended patients. The total direct cost of an ARI episode requiring outpatient care was US

Epidemiology of acute respiratory infections in children - preliminary results of a cohort in a rural north Indian community

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Recrudescent Wave of A/H1N1pdm09 Influenza Viruses in Winter 2012-2013 in Kashmir, India

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Evaluation of data sources and approaches for estimation of influenza-associated mortality in India

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