Siew Hong Teoh

Earnings Management and the Long-Run Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings

Issuers of initial public offerings ~IPOs! can report earnings in excess of cash f lows by taking positive accruals. This paper provides evidence that issuers with unusually high accruals in the IPO year experience poor stock return performance in the three years thereafter. IPO issuers in the most “aggressive” quartile of earnings managers have a three-year aftermarket stock return of approximately 20 percent less than IPO issuers in the most “conservative” quartile. They also issue about 20 percent fewer seasoned equity offerings. These differences are statistically and economically significant in a variety of specifications.

Earnings management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings

Seasoned equity issuers can raise reported earnings by altering discretionary accounting accruals. We find that issuers who adjust discretionary current accruals to report higher net income prior to the offering have lower post-issue long-run abnormal stock returns and net income. Interestingly, the relation between discretionary current accruals and future returns (adjusted for firm size and book-to-market ratio) is stronger and more persistent for seasoned equity issuers than for non-issuers. The evidence is consistent with investors naively extrapolating pre-issue earnings without fully adjusting for the potential manipulation of reported earnings.

Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: A Review and Synthesis

We review theory and evidence relating to herd behaviour, payoff and reputational interactions, social learning, and informational cascades in capital markets. We offer a simple taxonomy of effects, and evaluate how alternative theories may help explain evidence on the behaviour of investors, firms, and analysts. We consider both incentives for parties to engage in herding or cascading, and the incentives for parties to protect against or take advantage of herding or cascading by others.

Are Accruals during Initial Public Offerings Opportunistic

We find evidence that initial public offering (IPO) firms, on average, have high positive issue-year earnings and abnormal accruals, followed by poor long-run earnings and negative abnormal accruals. The IPO-year abnormal, and not expected, accruals explain the cross-sectional variation in post-issue earnings and stock returns. The results are robust with respect to alternative abnormal accruals and earnings performance measures. IPO firms adopt more income-increasing depreciation policies when they deviate from similar prior performance same industry non-issuers, and they provide significantly less for uncollectible accounts receivable than their matched non-issuers. The results taken together suggest opportunistic earnings management partially explains the new issues anomaly.

Investor Psychology in Capital Markets: Evidence and Policy Implications

We review extensive evidence about how psychological biases affect investor behavior and prices. Systematic mispricing probably causes substantial resource misallocation. We argue that limited attention and overconfidence cause investor credulity about the strategic incentives of informed market participants. However, individuals as political participants remain subject to the biases and self-interest they exhibit in private settings. Indeed, correcting contemporaneous market pricing errors is probably not governments relative advantage. Government and private planners should establish rules ex ante to improve choices and efficiency, including disclosure, reporting, advertising, and default-option- setting policies. Especially, government should avoid actions that exacerbate investor biases.

Auditor Independence, Dismissal Threats, And The Market Reaction To Auditor Switches

The article presents information on the effect of auditor changes on security prices in both a mechanical decision rule and in the possibility that an adverse audit opinion may lead to dismissal. The analysis implies that the stock price response to the announcement of an auditor change depends on the preswitch audit opinion. The author contends that his research proves auditor switches can be good for investors and that even when they are costless, and there is no collusion between auditor and firm, market reaction can be negative.

The Accrual Anomaly: Risk or Mispricing?

We document considerable return comovement associated with accruals after controlling for other common factors. An accrual-based factor-mimicking portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.16, higher than that of the market factor or the SMB and HML factors of Fama and French (1993). In time series regressions, a model that includes the Fama-French factors and the additional accrual factor captures the accrual anomaly in average returns. However, further time series and cross-sectional tests indicate that it is the accrual characteristic rather than the accrual factor loading that predicts returns. These findings favor a behavioral explanation for the accrual anomaly.

Issues in the Use of the Event Study Methodology: A Critical Analysis of Corporate Social Responsibility Studies:

Organizational researchers are increasingly using the event study methodology to assess the effect of strategic decisions on firm performance. Unfortunately, event studies alone are inadequate because, at best, they provide estimates of the shortrun impact on shareholders only and not on other corporate stakeholders. Furthermore, event study findings are sensitive to even small changes in research design. The authors illustrate the lack of robustness by examining five recent studies of corporate social responsibility (CSR) that report conflicting results. They conclude that these contradictory findings arise from significant differences in research design and implementation. The authors also demonstrate why it is inappropriate to draw conclusions regarding the managerial implications of CSR activities from these studies. Finally, they identify alternative methodologies that organizational researchers could use to supplement the event study approach to assess the overall impact of CSR on stakeholders.

Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets

others only through market price, information transmission and processing is simple (without thoughts and feelings), and there is no localization in the influence of an investor on others. In reality, individuals often process verbal arguments obtained in conversation or from media presentations, and observe the behavior of others. We review here evidence concerning how these activities cause beliefs and behaviors to spread, aect financial decisions, and aect market prices; and theoretical models of social influence and its eects on capital markets. Social influence is central to how information and investor sentiment are transmitted, so thought and behavior contagion should be incorporated into the theory of capital markets.

Overvalued Equity and Financing Decisions

We test whether and how equity overvaluation affects corporate financing decisions using an ex ante misvaluation measure that filters firm scale and growth prospects from market price. We find that equity issuance and total financing increase with equity overvaluation; but only among overvalued stocks; and that equity issuance is more sensitive than debt issuance to misvaluation. Consistent with managers catering to maintain overvaluation and with investment scale economy effects, the sensitivity of equity issuance and total financing to misvaluation is stronger among firms with potential growth opportunities (low book-to-market, high R&D, or small size) and high share turnover.