Ivo Welch

A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades

An informational cascade occurs when it is optimal for an individual, having observed the actions of those ahead of him, to follow the behavior of the preceding individual without regard to his own information. We argue that localized conformity of behavior and the fragility of mass behaviors can be explained by informational cascades.

Earnings Management and the Long-Run Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings

Issuers of initial public offerings ~IPOs! can report earnings in excess of cash f lows by taking positive accruals. This paper provides evidence that issuers with unusually high accruals in the IPO year experience poor stock return performance in the three years thereafter. IPO issuers in the most “aggressive” quartile of earnings managers have a three-year aftermarket stock return of approximately 20 percent less than IPO issuers in the most “conservative” quartile. They also issue about 20 percent fewer seasoned equity offerings. These differences are statistically and economically significant in a variety of specifications.

Capital Structure and Stock Returns

U.S. corporations do not issue and repurchase debt and equity to counteract the mechanistic effects of stock returns on their debt‐equity ratios. Thus over one‐ to five‐year horizons, stock returns can explain about 40 percent of debt ratio dynamics. Although corporate net issuing activity is lively and although it can explain 60 percent of debt ratio dynamics (long‐term debt issuing activity being most capital structure–relevant), corporate issuing motives remain largely a mystery. When stock returns are accounted for, many other proxies used in the literature play a much lesser role in explaining capital structure.

Rational herding in financial economics

This paper briefly describes recent papers on economics of rational herding in financial markets. Some models can predict perfect herding, in which rational agents all act alike without any counterveiling force. Such herding typically arises either from direct payoff externalities (negative externalities in bank runs; positive externalities in the generation of trading liquidity or in information acquisition), principal-agent problems (based on managerial desire to protect or signal reputation), or informational learning (cascades). The paper also provides a few pointers to related literature and suggests issues to be addressed in future research.

Issuer Expenses and Legal Liability in Initial Public Offerings

Issuers of initial public offerings (IPOs) face numerous decisions, of which the selection and compensation of experts--the legal counsel, the auditor, and the investment banker--are among the most important. Our article investigates the role of the entire IPO coalition (including the legal counsel). In a comprehensive sample of 823 firm-commitment offerings from 1992 to 1994, we examine how expert compensation, IPO underpricing, and IPO underpricing uncertainty are related to (1) expert quality (we provide in the text our directly comparable ranking of the top 50 experts in each category in December 1994), (2) legal caution and liability, (3) nonlegal risk signals, and (4) one another. The results are contrasted with similar results from the 1980s.

An empirical investigation of IPO returns and subsequent equity offerings

Abstract Several recent papers present signaling models in which firms underprice their initial public offerings of equity (IPOs) so that they can subsequently issue seasoned equity at more favorable prices. We test the implications of these models. We find a positive relation between IPO underpricing and the probability and size of subsequent seasoned offerings. Although these results are consistent with the implications of the signaling hypotheses, the economic significance appears weak. We conduct additional tests to evaluate other explanations for these findings and find the alternatives more compelling.

Corporate research & development investments international comparisons

Abstract This paper explores the determinants of corporate R&D for U.S., Canadian, British, European, and Japanese firms. We find last years debt ratio is significantly negatively correlated with current R&D expenditures for U.S. firms, and positively for Japanese firms. Second, we document a significant positive relation between two-year lagged stock return and current R&D expenditures for U.S., European, Japanese, and large-size British firms. Finally, we find a significant positive relation between last years tax payments and current R&D expenditures for Japanese firms, and a significant negative relation for medium-size and small-size U.S. firms.

Liquidity and Financial Market Runs

We model a run on a financial market, in which each risk-neutral investor fears having to liquidate shares after a run, but before prices can recover back to fundamental values. To avoid having to possibly liquidate shares at the marginal postrun price—in which case the risk-averse market-making sector will already hold a lot of share inventory and thus be more reluctant to absorb additional shares—each investor may prefer selling today at the average in-run price, thereby causing the run itself. Liquidity runs and crises are not caused by liquidity shocks per se, but by the fear of future liquidity shocks.

Two Common Problems in Capital Structure Research: The Financial- Debt-To-Asset Ratio and Issuing Activity Versus Leverage Changes

This paper points out two common problems in capital structure research. First, although it is not clear whether non-financial liabilities should be considered debt, they should never be considered as equity. Yet, the common financial-debt-to-asset ratio (FD/AT) measure of leverage commits this mistake. Thus, research on increases in FD/AT explains, at least in part, decreases in non-financial liabilities. Future research should avoid FD/AT altogether. The paper also quantifies the components of the balance sheet of large publicly traded corporations and discusses the role of cash in measuring leverage ratios. Second, equity-issuing activity should not be viewed as equivalent to capital structure changes. Empirically, the correlation between the two is weak. The capital structure and capital issuing literature are distinct.

An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness

This paper models how imperfect memory affects the optimal continuity of policies. We examine the choices of a player (individual or firm) who observes previous actions but cannot remember the rationale for these actions. In a stable environment, the player optimally responds to memory loss with excess inertia, defined as a higher probability of following old policies than would occur under full recall. In a volatile environment, the player can exhibit excess impulsiveness (i.e., be more prone to follow new information signals). The model provides a memory-loss explanation for some documented psychological biases, implies that inertia and organizational routines should be more important instable environments than in volatile ones, and provides other empirical implications relating memory and environmental variables to the continuity of decisions.