Sigrun Kabisch

Actors and factors in land-use simulation: The challenge of urban shrinkage

Both modelers and social scientists attempt to find better explanations of complex urban systems. They include development paths, underlying driving forces and their expected impacts. So far, land-use research has predominantly focused on urban growth. However, new challenges have arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the social and land-use sciences. Therefore, the focus of this paper is a twofold one: Using the example of urban shrinkage, we first discuss the capacity of existing land-use modeling approaches to integrate new social science knowledge in terms of land-use, demography and governance because social science models are indispensable for accurately explaining the processes behind shrinkage. Second, we discuss the combination of system dynamics (SD), cellular automata (CA) and agent-based model (ABM) approaches to cover the main characteristics, processes and patterns of urban shrinkage. Using Leipzig, Germany, as a case study, we provide the initial results of a joint SD-CA model and an ABM that both operationalize social science knowledge regarding urban shrinkage.

Population Decline in Polish and Czech Cities during Post-socialism? Looking Behind the Official Statistics:

The evolving debate on ‘urban shrinkage’ mirrors an increasing interest in demographic phenomena on the part of urban scholars. This paper discusses ambiguous evidence about recent population decline in the large cities of Poland and the Czech Republic, with a particular focus on Łódz and Brno in general and their inner cities more specifically. By applying a mixed-method approach, the paper identifies indications of inner-city repopulation and socio-demographic diversification which are not yet apparent in register or census data. It is argued that there are indications of a silent transformation of traditional residential patterns and neighbourhoods in east central Europe. In the inner cities, this is reflected, amongst other things, by the presence of new households that may be called ‘transitory urbanites’.

Guidelines for the “Perfect Inner City”. Discussing the Appropriateness of Monitoring Approaches for Reurbanization

In this paper, we analyse the appropriateness of monitoring approaches for the observation of inner-city reurbanization processes. Reurbanization is conceptualized here as a process of long-term stabilization of inner-city areas by both a readiness of present residents to stay and an influx of new residents. It has been recently re-set on the top of the European urban research agenda since non-growth has proved to be a major path of future development for many European cities. Recent research evidence across Europe underscores the fact that reurbanization depends much on local settings of institutional, socio-economic and infrastructural factors. To foster a clearer understanding of the nature and dynamics of local reurbanization, to assess its extent and progress and, what is more, to help practitioners to shape sustainable policy initiatives appropriate to the respective context, reurbanization needs to be observed over the long term. The complex character of reurbanization sets new challenges for monitoring approaches and indicator-based tools. Due to the genuine relation of the present debate on reurbanization to the phenomenon of non-growth or the return of the compact city, the focus in this paper is set on demographic development trends and their impact on inner-city change. In this vein, our paper presents a monitoring design and a respective newly developed indicator set for reurbanization which focuses more on the initial recognition of reurbanization than on its long-term stability. Methodically, chances and limits of the integration of household-related indicators and qualitative knowledge on reurbanization into monitoring tools are highlighted. Empirical and statistical evidence is taken from a recently completed EU FP 5 research project and from municipal surveys.

Ostdeutsche Grosswohnsiedlungen zwischen Stabilisierung und Niedergang

Abstract In summarizing academic research on large-scale housing estates in Eastern Germany, totally contrary opinions on the future prospects of these neighborhoods can be found. While some describe these quarters as still integrated neighborhoods with a social status that is much higher than that of their western counterparts, others see them as places of segregation, social problems and decay. Using data from a long-term survey (1979–2004) in Leipzig-Grünau, we argue that both perspectives are misleading. We give an insight into the main trends concerning large estates in Eastern Germany. We concentrate on social and demographic issues, thus showing how inherited problems and new issues interact, leading to a very specific situation with growing differences on a micro-scale.

Stadtumbau unter Schrumpfungsbedingungen

Der Begriff der Schrumpfung steht in einem komplementaren Verhaltnis zum Stadtumbau. Im Rahmen von Stadtentwicklung wird hiermit ein genereller Problemzusammenhang beschrieben. Er druckt die Verringerung der Grose bzw. des Umfangs einer Menge aus (Lang; Tenz 2003, S. 65), die auf die Indikatoren Bevolkerungsentwicklung, Gesamtwanderungssaldo, Arbeitsplatzentwicklung, Arbeitslosenquote, Realsteuerkraft je Einwohner und Kaufkraft bezogen wird (Gatzweiler et al. 2003, S. 564). Aufgrund der wechselseitigen Abhangigkeit und Beeinflussung der Indikatoren ist Schrumpfung als eine negative Zirkularitat zu betrachten. Diese erfordert Gegenreaktionen im Sinne des Stadtumbaus, der seinerseits zu einer Stabilisierung der Abwartsentwicklung beitragen und neue Chancen fur die weitere Lebensfahigkeit von Stadten eroffnen soll.

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

Socio-spatial Differentiation: Drivers, Risks and Opportunities

The unmistakeable pattern that has long divided Santiago de Chile into the ‘rich’ northeastern municipalities and the ‘poor’ rest of the city has recently begun to change. Little is known about the mechanisms that drive these processes of socio-spatial differentiation and their associated opportunities and risks. This chapter explores three trends in socio-spatial change for 39 municipalities of the Greater Metropolitan Area of Santiago: demographic variables such as population trends and intra-metropolitan migration streams, housing and land market trends with respect to construction volume, building permits and land prices, and finally state housing policy with particular reference to social housing programmes. The analysis shows that in combination, these trends have supported the formation of two extreme types of socio-spatial conditions in various locations throughout the city. The chapter stresses the prominent role of state housing programmes. While the contemporary debate on these aspects focuses to a large extent on the agglomeration of low-income groups in social housing schemes on the periphery, the results suggest that the housing policy should give attention to some of the more central locations, where the move towards gentrification could cause the displacement of low-income groups in the future.

Reurbanizing Leipzig (Germany): Context Conditions and Residential Actors (2000--2007)

After many decades of inner-city decline and massive suburbanization during the post-socialist transition of the 1990s, in eastern Germany there has been recently evolving a new, specific phenomenon: the simultaneousness of shrinkage, fading suburbanization and rising reurbanization. In this paper, the focus is on processes of reurbanization. Starting from a critical debate of conceptual approaches, the paper aims to scrutinize whether reurbanization can serve as an appropriate explanatory framework for the currently changing patterns of spatial development in eastern Germany. Reurbanization is applied to both processes on the urban macro-scale and the meso-scale of inner-city districts. By using regional, local and small-scale data from municipal statistics and questionnaire surveys, reurbanization processes will be analysed mainly for the city of Leipzig. In our paper, we argue that there is evidence for reurbanization in the sense of the model by van den Berg et al. (1982) mainly for some bigger cities since 2000. It occurs as an increasing in-migration as well as diminishing out-migration from the inner city. Taken together, reurbanization processes lead to a stabilization of the housing function of the core city.

Reurbanisierung aus soziodemographischer Perspektive: Haushalte und Quartierswandel in der inneren Stadt

Als um die Jahrtausendwende herum in Ostdeutschland noch heftig uber die Folgen der Suburbanisierung fur die Kernstadte gestritten wurde und der Wohnungsleerstand in unterschiedlichen Quartierstypen als das gravierendste Problem der Stadtentwicklung galt, war in einigen groseren Stadten parallel zur anhaltenden Wanderung an die Peripherie ein neuer Trend zu beobachten: die Wiederbesiedlung der inneren Stadt durch Bewohnergruppen mit unterschiedlichen soziodemographischen Merkmalen. Die langsame Zunahme der Einwohner- und Haushaltszahlen in diesen Quartieren seit der zweiten Halfte der 1990er Jahre stand in starkem Gegensatz zu ihrer jahrzehntelangen und weit vor dem Systembruch begonnenen Entleerung. Zwar hatte es seit den 1980er Jahren immer wieder Zuzuge durch jungere „Pionierhaushalte“ gegeben, doch wogen diese uber lange Jahre die Verluste nicht auf und konnten auch in qualitativer Hinsicht keine neue Entwicklungsrichtung initiieren. Stattdessen war es die Eigentums- und Steuerpolitik des vereinigten Deutschlands, welche in ihren widerspruchlichen Konsequenzen – schneller Bauboom auf der grunen Wiese, verzogerte, dann aber in einzelnen Quartieren der grunderzeitlichen Innenstadte nahezu flachendeckende Sanierung – die Voraussetzungen fur eine Wiederinwertsetzung und Neubesiedlung dieser lange vernachlassigten Stadtgebiete schuf. Die innere Stadt ist in vielen ostdeutschen Grosstadten durch eine erhaltene Bausubstanz aus der Epoche zwischen 1890 und 1915 gepragt, die nach umfangreicher Sanierung und Renovierung als bauliche Hulle eine hinsichtlich ihrer architektonischen Merkmale hohe Wohnqualitat offerierte. Hinzu kamen die Spezifika der ostdeutschen Wohnungsmarktentwicklung ab der zweiten Halfte der 1990er Jahre, die sich unter anderem in Form relativ niedriger Mietpreise aufgrund des erheblichen Wohnungsleerstandes widerspiegelte. Diese ermoglichten es auch Bewohnergruppen mit mittleren und geringeren Einkommen, sanierte Wohnungen in diesen Quartieren zu mieten. Des Weiteren wurden im Zuge der umfangreichen Sanierungsarbeiten Hinterhofe entkernt, um neue Grun- und Freiflachen zu schaffen. Somit konnten zusatzlich Wohnqualitaten suburbaner Pragung angeboten werden. Alle diese Entwicklungen trugen zu einem Attraktivitatsgewinn der innerstadtischen Gebiete bei und machten sie als Wohnstandort zunehmend interessant.

Achieving a Socio-Spatial Mix? Prospects and Limitations of Social Housing Policy in Santiago de Chile

In the Chilean housing sector, the combination of free-market imperatives guiding investment decisions and a long tradition of social housing subsidies has generally had remarkable success in quantitative terms but has also contributed to the large-scale segregation of poor families on the urban periphery. With the goal of a better socio-spatial mix and, ultimately, social integration, the Chilean government recently revised its guidelines for housing subsidies, promoting small-scale social housing in central locations. This paper examines the early effects of this new housing policy in a cluster of the so-called “pericentral” municipalities in Santiago de Chile. Specifically, it raises the question of whether the policy has a chance of achieving its objectives in light of prevailing free-market conditions. We demonstrate strong interrelations between the current dynamics of real-estate investment and government-led housing programs which together continue to promote uneven socio-spatial development and segregation of the urban poor on a smaller scale.