Annegret Haase

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AS A FUTURE CHALLENGE FOR CITIES IN EAST CENTRAL EUROPE

Abstract. Contemporary cities in East Central Europe (ECE) represent a hybrid type of urban development which is still generally considered to be a special case and is only exceptionally referred to in the recently intensified debate over the European city. Our paper argues that such exclusion is short‐sighted because ECE cities face structural problems similar to those of their Western pendants. Therefore, the contextual frame of urban research needs to be widened and can no longer be restricted to post‐socialist transition. In this regard, one of the main challenges for future urban development will be the consequences of demographic change. Ageing, new patterns of fertility behaviour and more diversified household structures in line with the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) will have significant implications for urban structures and housing markets, as already known for Western Europe. The purpose of this paper is to work out new questions and hypotheses for future urban research with special respect to Polish and Czech cities. Besides West European experience, recent developments in eastern Germany are taken as a frame of reference, assuming that this specific transition case may, in many respects, be regarded as a forerunner for similar developments in its neighbouring countries.

Varieties of shrinkage in European cities

The issue of urban shrinkage has become the new ‘normal’ across Europe: a large number of urban areas find themselves amongst the cities losing population. According to recent studies, almost 42 per cent of all large European cities are currently shrinking. In eastern Europe, shrinking cities have formed the overwhelming majority – here, three out of four cities report a decrease in population. Shrinkage has proved to be a very diverse and complex phenomenon. In our understanding, a considerable and constant loss of population by an urban area classifies it as a shrinking city. So, while the indicator of shrinkage used here is rather simple, the nature of the process and its causes and consequences for the affected urban areas are multifaceted and need to be explained and understood in further detail. Set against this background, the article presents, first, urban shrinkage as both spatially and temporally uneven. Second, this article shows that the causes of urban shrinkage are as varied as they are numerous. We explore the ‘pluralist world of urban shrinkage’ in the European Union and beyond. The article provides an original process model of urban shrinkage, bringing together its causes, impacts and dynamics, and setting them in the context of locally based urban trajectories. The main argument of this arrticle is that there is no ‘grand explanatory heuristics’ of shrinkage; a ‘one-size-fits-all’ explanatory approach to shrinkage cannot deliver. To progress and remain relevant, one ought to move away from outcome-orientated towards process-orientated research on urban shrinkage.

Actors and factors in land-use simulation: The challenge of urban shrinkage

Both modelers and social scientists attempt to find better explanations of complex urban systems. They include development paths, underlying driving forces and their expected impacts. So far, land-use research has predominantly focused on urban growth. However, new challenges have arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the social and land-use sciences. Therefore, the focus of this paper is a twofold one: Using the example of urban shrinkage, we first discuss the capacity of existing land-use modeling approaches to integrate new social science knowledge in terms of land-use, demography and governance because social science models are indispensable for accurately explaining the processes behind shrinkage. Second, we discuss the combination of system dynamics (SD), cellular automata (CA) and agent-based model (ABM) approaches to cover the main characteristics, processes and patterns of urban shrinkage. Using Leipzig, Germany, as a case study, we provide the initial results of a joint SD-CA model and an ABM that both operationalize social science knowledge regarding urban shrinkage.

Conceptualizing urban shrinkage

Since the second half of the 20th century, urban shrinkage has become a common pathway of transformation for many large cities across the globe. Although the appearance of shrinkage is fairly universal—typically manifested in dwindling population, emerging vacant spaces, and the underuse of existing urban infrastructure, ranging from schools and parks to water pipelines—its essence is hidden from view. Phenomena related to shrinkage have been discussed predominantly using terms such as decline, decay, blight, abandonment, disurbanization, urban crisis, and demographic change. Amongst others, these concepts were typically related to specific national contexts, installed in distinct explanatory frameworks, based around diverging normative accounts, ultimately leading to very different policy implications. Yet there is still a lack of conceptualization and integration of shrinkage into the wider theoretical debates in human geography, town and country planning, urban and regional studies, and social sciences at large. The problem here is not only to explain how shrinkage comes about, but also to study shrinkage as a process: simultaneously as a presupposition, a medium, and an outcome of continually changing social relationships. If we wish to understand shrinkage in a specific location, we need to integrate theoretical explanations with historical trajectories, as well as to combine these with a study of the specific impacts caused by shrinkage and to analyse the policy environment in which these processes take place. The authors apply an integrative model which maps the entire process across different contexts and independently of local or national specifics; it covers causes, impacts, responses, and feedback loops, and the interrelations between these aspects. The model does not ‘explain’ shrinkage in every case: instead, it builds a framework into which place-specific and time-specific explanations can be embedded. It is thus a heuristics that enables communication, if not comparison, across different contexts. With the help of this model, the authors hope to find a way in which shrinkage can be studied both in a conceptually rigorous and in an historically specific way. Instead of an invariant ‘process of shrinkage’, they portray a ‘pluralist world of shrinkages’.

Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990–2000 and 2000–2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these “double-declining” cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number “automatically” solve the global problem of land consumption.

Evolving Reurbanisation? Spatio-temporal Dynamics as Exemplified by the East German City of Leipzig:

After a decade of tremendous population loss indicating severe decline, some large east German cities have been displaying signs of reurbanisation since the late 1990s. Using the city of Leipzig as an example, this paper identifies the major characteristics, progress and underlying spatio-temporal dynamics of reurbanisation, and examines whether it is a long-term process of urban living or features only short-term tendencies. Socio-demographic indicators are used to observe the development of inner-city districts. At the spatial scale of municipal districts, time-series data are analysed for the years 1993 to 2005. The paper argues that reurbanisation has occurred primarily in inner-city districts and has progressed considerably since the early 1990s. However, the spatio-temporal distribution of the relevant indicators shows that reurbanisation is far from being a homogeneous process. In light of this, the paper presents a ring of reurbanisation-sensitive municipal districts around the city centre.

How does(n't) Urban Shrinkage get onto the Agenda? Experiences from Leipzig, Liverpool, Genoa and Bytom

This article discusses the question of how urban shrinkage gets onto the agenda of public-policy agencies. It is based on a comparison of the agenda-setting histories of four European cities, Liverpool (UK), Leipzig (Germany), Genoa (Italy) and Bytom (Poland), which have all experienced severe population losses but show very different histories with respect to how local governments reacted to them. We use the political-science concepts of ‘systemic vs. institutional agendas’ and ‘policy windows’ as a conceptual frame to compare these experiences. The article demonstrates that shrinkage is hardly ever responded to in a comprehensive manner but rather that policies are only implemented in a piecemeal way in selected fields. Moreover, it is argued that variations in institutional contexts and political dynamics lead to considerable differences with regard to the chances of making shrinkage a matter of public intervention. Against this background, the article takes issue with the idea that urban shrinkage only needs to be ‘accepted’ by policymakers who would need to overcome their growth-oriented cultural perceptions, as has been suggested in a number of recent writings, and calls for a more differentiated, context-sensitive view.

Land use impacts of demographic change – lessons from Eastern German urban regions

Demographic change has become a major topic regarding the use and stability of European urban regions. It can be seen as the major driving force responsible for “growth” and “non-growth” or “decline” pathways in urban regions for the coming decades. Growing and shrinking urban regions do exist simultaneously next to each other. The trend towards further urban sprawl and dispersion observed in the 1980s in western Europe and the 1990s in East Central Europe accompanying the transition process are about to be replaced by shrinkage and perforation. This is mainly due to the recent decrease in birth rates, ageing and shifting household structures. This chapter analyses the trends and spatial patterns of the impact of demographic changes in urban regions. In the first part different features of demographic change are presented. In the second part, the paper expands on how demographic change affects urban land use, fabric, housing markets, infrastructure and greenery. Since eastern Germany has been shrinking substantially since 1990, the paper uses this example to show a case in point embedded into the overall European context.

Population Decline in Polish and Czech Cities during Post-socialism? Looking Behind the Official Statistics:

The evolving debate on ‘urban shrinkage’ mirrors an increasing interest in demographic phenomena on the part of urban scholars. This paper discusses ambiguous evidence about recent population decline in the large cities of Poland and the Czech Republic, with a particular focus on Łódz and Brno in general and their inner cities more specifically. By applying a mixed-method approach, the paper identifies indications of inner-city repopulation and socio-demographic diversification which are not yet apparent in register or census data. It is argued that there are indications of a silent transformation of traditional residential patterns and neighbourhoods in east central Europe. In the inner cities, this is reflected, amongst other things, by the presence of new households that may be called ‘transitory urbanites’.

Guidelines for the “Perfect Inner City”. Discussing the Appropriateness of Monitoring Approaches for Reurbanization

In this paper, we analyse the appropriateness of monitoring approaches for the observation of inner-city reurbanization processes. Reurbanization is conceptualized here as a process of long-term stabilization of inner-city areas by both a readiness of present residents to stay and an influx of new residents. It has been recently re-set on the top of the European urban research agenda since non-growth has proved to be a major path of future development for many European cities. Recent research evidence across Europe underscores the fact that reurbanization depends much on local settings of institutional, socio-economic and infrastructural factors. To foster a clearer understanding of the nature and dynamics of local reurbanization, to assess its extent and progress and, what is more, to help practitioners to shape sustainable policy initiatives appropriate to the respective context, reurbanization needs to be observed over the long term. The complex character of reurbanization sets new challenges for monitoring approaches and indicator-based tools. Due to the genuine relation of the present debate on reurbanization to the phenomenon of non-growth or the return of the compact city, the focus in this paper is set on demographic development trends and their impact on inner-city change. In this vein, our paper presents a monitoring design and a respective newly developed indicator set for reurbanization which focuses more on the initial recognition of reurbanization than on its long-term stability. Methodically, chances and limits of the integration of household-related indicators and qualitative knowledge on reurbanization into monitoring tools are highlighted. Empirical and statistical evidence is taken from a recently completed EU FP 5 research project and from municipal surveys.