Silke Buda

Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes following 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Infection: A Global Pooled Analysis

This study analyzes data from 19 countries (from April 2009 to Jan 2010), comprising some 70,000 hospitalized patients with severe H1N1 infection, to reveal risk factors for severe pandemic influenza, which include chronic illness, cardiac disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes.

Communicable Diseases Prioritized for Surveillance and Epidemiological Research: Results of a Standardized Prioritization Procedure in Germany, 2011

Introduction To establish strategic priorities for the German national public health institute (RKI) and guide the institutes mid-term strategic decisions, we prioritized infectious pathogens in accordance with their importance for national surveillance and epidemiological research. Methods We used the Delphi process with internal (RKI) and external experts and a metric-consensus approach to score pathogens according to ten three-tiered criteria. Additional experts were invited to weight each criterion, leading to the calculation of a median weight by which each score was multiplied. We ranked the pathogens according to the total weighted score and divided them into four priority groups. Results 127 pathogens were scored. Eighty-six experts participated in the weighting; “Case fatality rate” was rated as the most important criterion. Twenty-six pathogens were ranked in the highest priority group; among those were pathogens with internationally recognised importance (e.g., Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Influenza virus, Hepatitis C virus, Neisseria meningitides), pathogens frequently causing large outbreaks (e.g., Campylobacter spp.), and nosocomial pathogens associated with antimicrobial resistance. Other pathogens in the highest priority group included Helicobacter pylori, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Varicella zoster virus and Hantavirus. Discussion While several pathogens from the highest priority group already have a high profile in national and international health policy documents, high scores for other pathogens (e.g., Helicobacter pylori, Respiratory syncytial virus or Hantavirus) indicate a possible under-recognised importance within the current German public health framework. A process to strengthen respective surveillance systems and research has been started. The prioritization methodology has worked well; its modular structure makes it potentially useful for other settings.

The first wave of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 in Germany: From initiation to acceleration

BackgroundThe first imported case of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 in Germany was confirmed in April 2009. However, the first wave with measurable burden of disease started only in October 2009. The basic epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the pandemic were analysed in order to understand the course of the pandemic in Germany.MethodsThe analysis was based on data from the case-based, mandatory German surveillance system for infectious diseases. Cases notified between 27 April and 11 November 2009 and fulfilling the case definition were included in the study.ResultsTwo time periods with distinct epidemiologic characteristics could be determined: 23,789 cases (44.1%) occurred during the initiation period (IP, week 18 to 41), and 30,179 (55.9%) during the acceleration period (AP, week 42 to 45). During IP, coinciding with school summer holidays, 61.1% of cases were travel-related and one death occurred. Strict containment efforts were performed until week 32. During AP the majority of cases (94.3%) was autochthonous, 12 deaths were reported. The main affected age group shifted from 15 to 19 years in IP to 10 to 14 years in AP (median age 19 versus 15 years; p < 0.001). The proportion of cases with underlying medical conditions increased from 4.7% to 6.9% (p < 0.001). Irrespective of the period, these cases were more likely to be hospitalised (OR = 3.6 [95% CI: 3.1; 4.3]) and to develop pneumonia (OR = 8.1 [95% CI: 6.1; 10.7]). Furthermore, young children (0 to 2 years) (OR = 2.8 [95% CI: 1.5; 5.2]) and persons with influenza-like illness (ILI, OR = 1.4 [95% CI: 1.0; 2.1]) had a higher risk to develop pneumonia compared to other age groups and individuals without ILI.ConclusionThe epidemiological differences we could show between summer and autumn 2009 might have been influenced by the school summer holidays and containment efforts. The spread of disease did not result in change of risk groups or severity. Our results show that analyses of case-based information can advise future public health measures.

Prevalence of antibodies to 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in German adult population in pre- and post-pandemic period.

Background In order to detect levels of pre-existing cross-reactive antibodies in different age groups and to measure age-specific infection rates of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic in Germany, we conducted a seroprevalence study based on samples from an ongoing nationwide representative health survey. Methodology/Principal Findings We analysed 845 pre-pandemic samples collected between 25 Nov 2008 and 28 Apr 2009 and 757 post-pandemic samples collected between 12 Jan 2010 and 24 Apr 2010. Reactive antibodies against 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (pH1N1) were detected using a haemagglutination inhibition test (antigen A/California/7/2009). Proportions of samples with antibodies at titre ≥40 and geometric mean of the titres (GMT) were calculated and compared among 6 age groups (18–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, ≥70 years). The highest proportions of cross-reactive antibodies at titre ≥40 before the pandemic were observed among 18–29 year olds, 12.5% (95% CI 7.3–19.5%). The highest increase in seroprevalence between pre- and post-pandemic was also observed among 18–29 year olds, 29.9% (95% CI 16.7–43.2%). Effects of sampling period (pre- and post-pandemic), age, sex, and prior influenza immunization on titre were investigated with Tobit regression analysis using three birth cohorts (after 1976, between 1957 and 1976, and before 1957). The GMT increased between the pre- and post-pandemic period by a factor of 10.2 (95% CI 5.0–20.7) in the birth cohort born after 1976, 6.3 (95% CI 3.3–11.9) in those born between 1957 and 1976 and 2.4 (95% CI 1.3–4.3) in those born before 1957. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that infection rates differed among age groups and that the measured pre-pandemic level of cross-reactive antibodies towards pH1N1 did not add information in relation to protection and prediction of the most affected age groups among adults in the pandemic.

Low-level Circulation of Enterovirus D68–Associated Acute Respiratory Infections, Germany, 2014

We used physician sentinel surveillance to identify 25 (7.7%) mild to severe infections with enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in children and adults among 325 outpatients with acute respiratory infections in Germany during August–October 2014. Results suggested low-level circulation of enterovirus D68 in Germany. Viruses were characterized by sequencing viral protein (VP) 1 and VP4/VP2 genomic regions.

Estimates of excess medically attended acute respiratory infections in periods of seasonal and pandemic influenza in Germany from 2001/02 to 2010/11.

Background The number of patients seeking health care is a central indicator that may serve several different purposes: (1) as a proxy for the impact on the burden of the primary care system; (2) as a starting point to estimate the number of persons ill with influenza; (3) as the denominator data for the calculation of case fatality rate and the proportion hospitalized (severity indicators); (4) for economic calculations. In addition, reliable estimates of burden of disease and on the health care system are essential to communicate the impact of influenza to health care professionals, public health professionals and to the public. Methodology/Principal Findings Using German syndromic surveillance data, we have developed a novel approach to describe the seasonal variation of medically attended acute respiratory infections (MAARI) and estimate the excess MAARI attributable to influenza. The weekly excess inside a period of influenza circulation is estimated as the difference between the actual MAARI and a MAARI-baseline, which is established using a cyclic regression model for counts. As a result, we estimated the highest ARI burden within the last 10 years for the influenza season 2004/05 with an excess of 7.5 million outpatient visits (CI95% 6.8–8.0). In contrast, the pandemic wave 2009 accounted for one third of this burden with an excess of 2.4 million (CI95% 1.9–2.8). Estimates can be produced for different age groups, different geographic regions in Germany and also in real time during the influenza waves.

Unchanged Severity of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Infection in Children during First Postpandemic Season

Improvement is needed in preventing severe disease and nosocomial transmission in children beyond pandemic situations.

Lessons from a one-year hospital-based surveillance of acute respiratory infections in Berlin- comparing case definitions to monitor influenza

BackgroundSurveillance of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in sentinel hospitals is recommended to estimate the burden of severe influenza-cases. Therefore, we monitored patients admitted with respiratory infections (RI) in 9 Berlin hospitals from 7.12.2009 to 12.12.2010 according to different case definitions (CD) and determined the proportion of cases with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (pH1N1). We compared the sensitivity and specificity of CD for capturing pandemic pH1N1 cases.MethodsWe established an RI-surveillance restricted to adults aged ≤ 65 years within the framework of a pH1N1 vaccine effectiveness study, which required active identification of RI-cases. The hospital information-system was screened daily for newly admitted RI-patients. Nasopharyngeal swabs from consenting patients were tested by PCR for influenza-virus subtypes. Four clinical CD were compared in terms of capturing pH1N1-positives among hospitalized RI-patients by applying sensitivity and specificity analyses. The broadest case definition (CD1) was used for inclusion of RI-cases; the narrowest case definition (CD4) was identical to the SARI case definition recommended by ECDC/WHO.ResultsOver the study period, we identified 1,025 RI-cases, of which 283 (28%) met the ECDC/WHO SARI case definition. The percentage of SARI-cases among internal medicine admissions decreased from 3.2% (calendar-week 50-2009) to 0.2% (week 25-2010). Of 354 patients tested by PCR, 20 (6%) were pH1N1-positive. Two case definitions narrower than CD1 but -in contrast to SARI- not requiring shortness of breath yielded the largest areas under the Receiver-Operator-Curve. Heterogeneity of proportions of patients admitted with RI between hospitals was significant.ConclusionsComprehensive surveillance of RI cases was feasible in a network of community hospitals. In most settings, several hospitals should be included to ensure representativeness. Although misclassification resulting from failure to obtain symptoms in the hospital information-system cannot be ruled out, a high proportion of hospitalized PCR-positive pH1N1-patients (45%) did not fulfil the SARI case-definition that included shortness of breath or difficulty breathing. Thus, to assess influenza-related disease burden in hospitals, broader, alternative case definitions should be considered.

Epidemiologischer Steckbrief der pandemischen Influenza (H1N1) 2009 basierend auf Einzelfallmeldungen nach Infektionsschutzgesetz

The aim of the investigation is the descriptive analysis of case-based information from mandatory notifications in the first year of the influenza pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in order to identify and describe epidemiological characteristics and risk factors for severe outcome. Four distinct time periods were defined to describe the age distribution of hospitalized and fatal cases. In contrast, stratified (age, sex) analysis of risk factors was carried out for the whole time period of pandemic influenza activity (notification weeks 18/2009 to 17/2010). Characteristic differences in the age distribution of reported cases were observed according to the time period. Among the reported risk factors, immunosuppression exhibited the highest probability for hospitalization or a fatal outcome (OR=8.82; CI95% 7.3-10.6 and OR=37.4; CI95% 25.5-54.8, respectively). The stratified analysis showed that this was especially pronounced for patients in the age group 60 years and above. Single case-based notifications of pandemic influenza have proven to be an invaluable source of information for assessing the epidemiological characteristics of the influenza pandemic 2009 in Germany. In addition, it allows comparative analysis of certain risk groups for severe disease. The information, thus, provides an important contribution for further developing and improving of public health recommendations.

Protective measures and H5N1-seroprevalence among personnel tasked with bird collection during an outbreak of avian influenza A/H5N1 in wild birds, Ruegen, Germany, 2006

BackgroundIn Germany, the first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 occurred among wild birds on the island of Ruegen between February and April 2006. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of recommended protective measures and to measure H5N1-seroprevalence among personnel tasked with bird collection.MethodsInclusion criteria of our study were participation in collecting wild birds on Ruegen between February and March 2006. Study participants were asked to complete a questionnaire, and to provide blood samples. For evaluation of the use of protective measures, we developed a personal protective equipment (PPE)-score ranging between 0 and 9, where 9 corresponds to a consistent and complete use of PPE. Sera were tested by plaque neutralization (PN) and microneutralization (MN) assays. Reactive sera were reanalysed in the World Health Organization-Collaborating Centre (WHO-CC) using MN assay.ResultsOf the eligible personnel, consisting of firemen, government workers and veterinarians, 61% (97/154) participated in the study. Of those, 13% reported having always worn all PPE-devices during bird collection (PPE-score: 9). Adherence differed between firemen (mean PPE-score: 6.6) and government workers (mean PPE-score: 4.5; p = 0.006). The proportion of personnel always adherent to wearing PPE was lowest for masks (19%). Of the participants, 18% had received seasonal influenza vaccination prior to the outbreak. There were no reports of influenza-like illness. Five sera initially H5-reactive by PN assay were negative by WHO-CC confirmatory testing.ConclusionGaps and variability in adherence demonstrate the risk of exposure to avian influenza under conditions of wild bird collection, and justify serological testing and regular training of task personnel.