Silvia Tiezzi

An empirical analysis of tobacco addiction in Italy

We estimate tobacco demand in Italy following the rational addiction framework. Two empirical tests are performed. The first uses a pseudo panel of data and follows the approach of Baltagi and Griffin. We obtain evidence of forward-looking behavior but implausible estimates of the discount rate. The second uses a time series of per capita tobacco expenditures. In this case the data support the theory. A simulation is also carried out to assess the effects of future permanent price changes on tobacco demand. The novelty here is that expected future consumption is estimated by ordinary least squares using past and future prices as regressors instead of taking actual consumption as is usually the case in empirical tests of the rational addiction model. Results show that announcements of future price changes may be effective in curbing tobacco demand.

The Welfare Effects of Carbon Taxation on Italian Households

We simulate the welfare effects of the Carbon-Energy Tax introduced in Italy at the beginning of 1999 which asks for smooth increases, over a number of years, in the prices of most fossil fuels. The welfare effects have been calculated using True Cost of Living index numbers and their parameters have been obtained through estimation of a demand system, using households-data from 1985 to 1996. The welfare loss at the aggregate level turns out to be quite substantial and affects Italian households in a non-negligible way, but the distribution of welfare losses across different levels of total monthly expenditures does not allow sustaining the regressivity of Carbon taxation, as the effect becomes bigger as we move up the income distribution. This evidence might encourage the use of Carbon Taxes as cost-effective instruments of environmental policy, especially after the recent negotiations on Climate Change. However, other important implications of Carbon taxation such as those on competitiveness and the environmental impact are not assessed in this study.

Overreaction to Excise Taxes: The Case of Gasoline

In this paper we contribute new results on the different consumers’ reaction to tax or price changes. We separately compute the compensated gasoline retail price elasticity and the gasoline tax elasticity and show that consumers overreact to taxes as compared to price variations. A novel element in our analysis is that we compare reactions to tax-inclusive retail prices to reactions to information on excise taxes that is made available to consumers. We estimate a complete system of demand for the U.S. population of households using quarterly data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey from 2007 to 2009. Relying on a complete system of demands rather than on single equations avoids imposing an implausible separability restriction, thus allowing estimation of accurate elasticities that take behavioral responses into account, i.e. that account for the way in which consumers reallocate their expenditure on a bundle of goods after a price/tax change in one of the goods. Our analysis shows that the reaction to a gasoline tax change is, on average, about 20% stronger than the reaction to a corresponding price change. We discuss the implications of our findings for the design of energy policies.

Declining Equivalence Scales and Cost of Children: Evidence and Implications for Inequality Measurement

Abstract This article estimates expenditure-dependent equivalence scales for Italian couples with and without children. Following Donaldson and Pendakur (2006), the generalised absolute equivalence-scale exactness (GAESE) restrictions are incorporated into a translated quadratic almost ideal demand system. We obtain declining-with-expenditure equivalence scales, a pattern that tends to strengthen when the number of children increases. Thus, scale economies in current consumption are lower for families with poor expenditure capacities. We also show that families living in the South bear a substantial additional cost to achieve the same well-being of those living in the North. Finally, we find that ignoring the declining with expenditure pattern may involve a relevant understatement of measured inequality.

The signaling effect of gasoline taxes and its distributional implications

This paper proposes and tests a better defined interpretation of the different responses of gasoline demand to tax changes and to market-related price changes. Namely, the signaling effect of gasoline taxes is one that impacts on long-run consumer decisions in addition to the incentives provided by tax-inclusive gasoline prices. Our hypothesis is tested using a complete demand system augmented with information on gasoline taxes and fitted to household-level data from the 2006 to 2013 rounds of the US Consumer Expenditure survey. Information on gasoline taxes is found to be a significant determinant of household demand additional to tax-inclusive gasoline prices. The equity implications are examined by contrasting the incidence across income distribution of a simulated

Time Delay and Support for Taxation

0.22/gallon tax increase to that of a market-related price increase equal in size. The tax increase is clearly regressive, slightly more than the market-related price increase. However, regressivity is by no means a reason to give up gasoline taxes as an instrument for reducing gasoline consumption externalities. Their high effectiveness in reducing gasoline demand implies that small tax increases can substantially improve the environment while minimizing the related distributional effects. Also, gasoline taxes generate revenue that can be used to offset their regressivity.

Rational Addiction and Tobacco Consumption: Theory and Empirical Evidence

People often experience the benefits of taxation with time. We design experiments to test the hypothesis that delaying the benefits of taxation can lead to low support for taxes. In a dynamic market experiment with negative externalities, we consistently find that people are less willing to accept Pigouvian taxes, aimed at reducing negative externalities and restoring market efficiency, when the negative externalities are delayed. While people learn to adopt taxation when the negative externality occurs immediately, the resistance to taxation remains robust over time when the externality is delayed. Our data suggest that people are less likely to support taxation when they found it difficult to understand the working of the new institution. We discuss the policy implications of our findings for promoting support for taxation.

The welfare effects and the distributive impact of carbon taxation on Italian households

Since the end of the eighties the Becker and Murphy model of rational addiction has been the dominant approach to estimate addiction effects. A rational addictive consumer, a smoker for instance, is supposed to maximize over the life cycle a stable utility function and to be fully aware of the future consequences of her addiction and chooses to be an addicted because she evaluates the benefits of addiction to be greater than its full costs. It follows that public policy should not interfere with such fully rational behaviour. On the other hand, the additional public health care costs smokers impose on non smokers could be internalised using price mechanisms, as the long run price elasticity of demand is supposed to be significantly higher than the short run one. This work tries to assess, through a review of the literature, whether the idea of rational addiction is robust, with a focus on smoking behaviour.