Silvia Ulli-Beer

A Typology of Tools for Building Sustainability Strategies

This chapter introduces and describes a typology of policy instruments that has a dual purpose. It serves (1) as a conceptual tool for integrating the findings of the different studies that were part of our inter-and transdisciplinary research and (2) as a useful frame of reference for political actors when choosing appropriate sets of instruments for policy strategies. The instruments we have included in the typology focus on the ecological dimension of sustainability; they are applied primarily to promote environmentally responsible action. However we believe that the five basic types of instruments — command and control instruments economic instruments service and infrastructure instruments collaborative agreements and communication and diffusion instruments — are of a general character that would allow for the inclusion of specific groups of instruments for promoting economic and social sustainability. Future work will tackle the issue of complementing the typology so that it covers the full range of instruments available for promoting all three dimensions of sustainable development. The chapter consists of five sections.

How do we know who to include in collaborative research? Toward a method for the identification of experts

Collaborative research, defined as research involving actors participating in the problem situation under study, has an important role in operational research, strategic management and systems thinking. In a recent study, we found that a strong organizational focus incorporated into many soft operational research (OR) approaches is inadequate for studying societal problem situations, which are fragmented and have no clear boundary. Specifically, we failed to find a process of identifying individuals that is capable of representing the perspectives of actors and sufficient for research into societal problem situations. We found no clear terminology accounting for ontological differences between actors, individuals representing them and conceptual representations of acting entities. In response to this gap in the literature, we propose terminology that differentiates among actors (individuals or collective entities in the real world), experts (individuals capable of representing the perspective of an actor) and agents (ideal-typical representations of actors). Based on this terminology, we propose an iterative method to guide the assembly of an expert group to undertake collaborative research into societal problem situations. To demonstrate the application of our method, we present selected insights from our study in an electronic supplement.

Policy Analysis and Design in Local Public Management A System Dynamics Approach

The purpose of this article is to draw lessons for transdisciplinary modelling endeavours in social contexts. The chosen approach is to explore a research project that was part of the Swiss National Science Foundation’s ‘Swiss Priority Programme Environment’ (SPPE). The project focused on ecological issues and was realised in collaboration with local actors from a Swiss municipality. The case study design is used to analyse methodological issues related to the study of complex dynamic challenges. For example, for the purpose of policy design and learning, pertinent examples of the roles of heuristic frameworks and of simulation models are examined. Another challenge is to involve problem owners in the inquiry process. Furthermore, the transdisciplinary approach, in order to gain a better understanding, is addressed. These issues will be illustrated by means of system dynamics modelling and analysis of current challenges in the realm of solid waste management. Finally, the chapter makes several recommendations to researchers who want to investigate multifaceted, dynamically complex issues together with practitioners.

Conceptual Grounds of Socio-Technical Transitions and Governance

This chapter provides an overview of theorizing on technology change and socio-technical transition. The first contribution of the chapter is to clarify how distinct theoretical framework should be understood in the context of other related theorizing. The second contribution is to clarify the sources of theoretical tensions, and to resolve ambiguities in terms. This is important because tensions and ambiguities hinder the accumulation of an inter-subjective theoretical ground. We observe that sustainability transition research increasingly relies on process theorizing. It stresses the role of feedback mechanisms and systemic barriers as a new rationale for concerted strategy and policymaking. On the other hand, it does not answer the questions of which and how causal structures influence system behavior, e.g., in terms of reaching emission reduction targets in time and/or dynamical competitiveness. We have identified two reasons for this tension. First, sustainability transition research traditionally employs descriptive theorizing. Behavioral consequences remain obscure due to lacking causal propositions. Second, there exists a variety of categorization schemes that use ambiguous technical terms for describing linkages, processes, and performance characteristics. Consequently, we propose a standardization of system technical terms based on system dynamics methodology. This is important to facilitate a shared understanding on the factors and processes of (un-)desired transition trends. Further, we propose to apply system dynamics mapping tools to conceptualize socio-technical systems as a causal feedback system. This mapping approach provides the structural elements of critical behavior phenomena, like inertia, lock-in, and path creation, in socio-technical systems. We assume that this is particularly supportive for governance-based steering, because causal beliefs about effective governance structures are a necessary condition for the acceptance of concerted action programs in heterogeneous actor groups.

A Research Method for Integrative Transition Simulation

System dynamics (SD) simulation supports the identification of interacting feedback processes guiding system behavior in social systems; but its contribution to theorizing on multi-level alignment processes of socio-technical transition is unclear. Our purpose is to clarify the benefits and limitations of an SD-based research strategy for theorizing on sustainability transitions. First, we explicate why and how the linkage of SD simulation with the multi-level perspective (MLP) helps to overcome some limitations of narrative approaches. Second, we offer for such integrative transition simulation (ITS) journeys a tailored method that provides methodical guidance. We found that the structural analysis methods and tools offer the unique value proposition of ITS. They help to explicate dominating causal circularities of multi-level alignment processes and to test the behavioral consequences. We illustrate how this approach has supported the development of a process theory about iterating cycling through sequences of innovation, diffusion, and standardization in energy-efficient (ee) housing. We conclude that the method supports cross-case comparison and generalization of single findings. In addition, we suggest that ITS may enhance discussion on circular causalities and sequences in sustainability transitions; this kind of knowledge is important for the coordination and timing of policy and strategy making in sustainability transitions.

How Should Public Policy Transform the Stock of Buildings Toward Energy Efficiency and Low Emissions? Results from a System Dynamics Modeling Study of Switzerland

We report on modeling work that shows how the market, technology, civil society and the state govern the diffusion of energy-efficient renovations in Switzerland’s stock of residential, multifamily buildings. The particular focus of this chapter is on the policy implications that we drew from an extensive System Dynamics modeling study. We conclude that energy efficiency is important, yet not sufficient in order to reach ambitious emission reduction goals. In addition to promoting energy efficiency, Switzerland should aim for a widespread decarbonization of heating systems. We discuss what kind of instruments can be used to address various policy levers in order to accelerate the diffusion of energy-efficient renovations. We propose two regulations that could serve as a framework for ambitious long-term decarbonization efforts. Finally, we propose a service innovation that could assist building owners in complying with the ambitious regulations required.

The Diffusion of Eco-Technologies: A Model-Based Theory

We propose a generic theory of the diffusion of eco-technologies that integrates properties of the market, technology, policy change, and public policy interventions. Eco-technologies are technologies that lead to reduced environmental stress compared to an incumbent, mainstream technology. Because our theory is generic, it can be applied to a wide set of different technologies. Methodologically, we rely on System Dynamics modeling and simulation to arrive at a dynamic, causally explicit, and endogenous explanation of the key feedback loops driving (or inhibiting) such diffusion processes. In addition to a description of our theory, we provide an extensive discussion of how the System Dynamics methodology can be used to conduct research and support policymaking in the context of eco-technologies.

Social Dynamics Overriding Utility Evaluations for Good and Bad: Implications for the Design of Sustainable Food Security Policies in Sub-Saharan African Countries

Sub-Saharan African economies depend heavily on agriculture. Seed from improved varieties and other inputs are imperative to the transformation of the agricultural sector from subsistence farming to small-scale commercial agriculture and thus to increasing food security on the continent. Farmers make the decision to adopt seed from improved varieties based on a number of seed attributes. These range from tangible attributes such as input costs and yield to intangible attributes such as trust in seed from improved varieties. In the course of adoption decisions, social dynamics involving trust can over-ride objective evaluations of tangible attributes. This makes it difficult to design sustainable adoption policies in an intuitive way. For this purpose we develop a system dynamics model and combine it with conjoint analysis. Conjoint analysis allows us to elicit smallholder farmers’ choice preferences in detail and to add precision to the structure of the model. The simulation framework helps to improve our understanding concerning the dynamic implications of accumulation processes relating to trust and skill. We test this approach with empirical data for maize in Malawi. Model simulations demonstrate that effective adoption stimulation policies should focus on measures that build trust in improved maize varieties instead of increasing their potential yield even further and in this way contribute to food security.

The Role of Social Norms for the Diffusion of Eco-Innovations: Tipping Point, and Lock-in Effects

In the innovation literature, paradigm changes in supply have been elaborated during the last three decades, while interdependencies between technology competition and social norm changes on the demand-side have received less attention. This paper investigates the concept of the social norm to model green product diffusion. It offers a social perspective on the systemic phenomena of tipping point and lock-in effects in relation to green product diffusion; this is our first contribution. Social interaction effects of distinct technology adoption patterns are conceptualized as social norm competition. We apply the method of simulation based theory building, to test the system behavioral implications of the postulated nonlinear socio-technical norm effect. We show that this conception provides an endogenous explanation of tipping behavior in s-shaped diffusion m1odels. This complements pure probabilistic technology diffusion models that neglect both endogenous and social influences on adoption decisions. We perform simulations for two and three competing technologies, using the example of vehicle fleet penetration with alternative drivetrain technologies. We show that the critical mass and the transition pathway is path dependent. Our second contribution is the specification of the critical mass within distinct socio-technical norm regimes. We apply a mathematical analysis of the technological landscape potential to visualize the characteristics of the tipping point. The tipping point is explained by the built up of a critical mass of users that signal a new socio-technical norm fostering transition to irreversible substitution. The offered approach and perspective is intended to be useful for effective long term policy making and to enhance the intuition about feedback rich sustainability transitions.

Industrial ECO-Transformation: Impacts of Climate Policy and Advanced Vehicle Technologies on the Carmaker Industry

This paper introduces an industrial transformation model applied to the carmaker industry. We analyze the interaction between supply and demand as well as policy regulations supporting the diffusion of advanced vehicle technologies. The simulation experiments highlight the dynamic interaction of industrial viability, and public policy for mitigating diffusion barriers, as well as CO2 emission reduction targets in the EU. Data analysis and simulations show that high capital stocks in the automobile industry form decisive market barriers for newcomers. Also automakers’ capacity to strongly invest in R&D becomes an important competitive advantage specifically for market leaders throughout an induced transition towards a greener industry. Policy analysis highlights the critical role of early investment into the infrastructure build-up and its effect on cost reduction paths of alternative vehicles. In addition, model analyses give evidence that anticipation of policy regulations and early responses of the supply side induce economically and environmentally advantageous transition paths. Specifically the deployment of natural gas vehicles turns out to be a robust short term strategy for improved CO2 emission reductions. Electric range extended vehicles help to overcome infrastructure barriers. The pace of infrastructure build-up and production capital adjustment are critical determinants of the transitions paths towards near zero emission vehicles.