Simon Blanford

Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria–temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

Coping with crowds: Density-dependent disease resistance in desert locusts

Parasite transmission generally exhibits some form of positive density dependence. Thus, as population density increases, so too does the per capita risk of becoming infected. Under such circumstances, natural selection should favor individuals that use cues associated with population density to determine the optimal allocation of resources to disease resistance mechanisms. As a consequence, individuals experiencing crowded conditions are predicted to be more resistant to parasites and pathogens than those experiencing low-density conditions. This phenomenon (termed “density-dependent prophylaxis”) [Wilson, K. & Reeson, A. F. (1998) Ecol. Entomol. 23, 100–101] is predicted to be particularly prevalent in outbreak pest species and in species exhibiting density-dependent phase polyphenism, such as the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria. Here we show that, as predicted, desert locusts reared under crowded conditions are significantly more resistant than solitary locusts to the entomopathogenic fungus, Metarhizium anisopliae var. acridum, a key natural disease of acridids and an important agent in locust and grasshopper biocontrol. Moreover, enhanced pathogen resistance in crowded locusts is associated with elevated antimicrobial activity, but not with any difference in thermal preferences or behavioral fever response. These results have implications for understanding the development and biocontrol of locust plagues.

Host–pathogen interactions in a varying environment: temperature, behavioural fever and fitness

We demonstrate how variable temperatures, mediated by host thermoregulation and behavioural fever, critically affect the interaction between a host (the desert locust, Schistocerca gregaria) and a pathogen (the fungus Metarhizium anisopliae var. acridum). By means of behavioural thermoregulation, infected locusts can raise their body temperatures to fever levels. The adaptive value of this behaviour was examined using three thermal regimes wherein maximum body temperatures achievable were: (i) below, or (ii) at normally preferred temperatures, or were (iii) unrestricted, allowing heightened fever temperatures. All infected locusts ultimately succumbed to disease, with median survival times of 8, 15 and 21 days post–infection, respectively. Crucially, only those locusts able to fever produced viable offspring. This represents, to our knowledge, the first demonstration of the adaptive value of behavioural fever following infection with a naturally occurring pathogen. By contrast, although normal host thermoregulation moderately reduced pathogen reproduction (by 35%), there was no additional negative effect of fever, resulting in an asymmetry in the fitness consequences of fever for the host and the pathogen. The dependency of the host–pathogen interaction upon external abiotic conditions has implications for how virulence and resistance are treated both theoretically and in the management of pests and diseases.

Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change

Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate ‘realized’ thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the ‘fundamental’ norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing ‘thermal safety margins’. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.

Behavioural fever in the Senegalese grasshopper, Oedaleus senegalensis, and its implications for biological control using pathogens

1. Thermoregulatory behaviour of the Senegalese grasshopper, Oedaleus senegalensis (Krauss), was investigated in the field following a spray application of an oil‐based formulation of Metarhizium flavoviride Gams and Rozsypal in Niger, West Africa.

Implications of temperature variation for malaria parasite development across Africa

Temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission. Recent work has shown that mosquito and parasite biology are influenced not only by average temperature, but also by the extent of the daily temperature variation. Here we examine how parasite development within the mosquito (Extrinsic Incubation Period) is expected to vary over time and space depending on the diurnal temperature range and baseline mean temperature in Kenya and across Africa. Our results show that under cool conditions, the typical approach of using mean monthly temperatures alone to characterize the transmission environment will underestimate parasite development. In contrast, under warmer conditions, the use of mean temperatures will overestimate development. Qualitatively similar patterns hold using both outdoor and indoor temperatures. These findings have important implications for defining malaria risk. Furthermore, understanding the influence of daily temperature dynamics could provide new insights into ectotherm ecology both now and in response to future climate change.

Host thermal biology: the key to understanding host–pathogen interactions and microbial pest control?

1 The role of pathogens in insect population dynamics remains poorly understood and their performance in biological control is erratic. Here we identify that temperature and host thermal behaviour, both the active interaction with environmental temperature and solar radiation via thermoregulation and the passive interception of these factors by thermal generalists, are central to understanding host–pathogen interactions.

Lethal and pre-lethal effects of a fungal biopesticide contribute to substantial and rapid control of malaria vectors.

Rapidly emerging insecticide resistance is creating an urgent need for new active ingredients to control the adult mosquitoes that vector malaria. Biopesticides based on the spores of entomopathogenic fungi have shown considerable promise by causing very substantial mortality within 7–14 days of exposure. This mortality will generate excellent malaria control if there is a high likelihood that mosquitoes contact fungi early in their adult lives. However, where contact rates are lower, as might result from poor pesticide coverage, some mosquitoes will contact fungi one or more feeding cycles after they acquire malaria, and so risk transmitting malaria before the fungus kills them. Critics have argued that ‘slow acting’ fungal biopesticides are, therefore, incapable of delivering malaria control in real-world contexts. Here, utilizing standard WHO laboratory protocols, we demonstrate effective action of a biopesticide much faster than previously reported. Specifically, we show that transient exposure to clay tiles sprayed with a candidate biopesticide comprising spores of a natural isolate of Beauveria bassiana, could reduce malaria transmission potential to zero within a feeding cycle. The effect resulted from a combination of high mortality and rapid fungal-induced reduction in feeding and flight capacity. Additionally, multiple insecticide-resistant lines from three key African malaria vector species were completely susceptible to fungus. Thus, fungal biopesticides can block transmission on a par with chemical insecticides, and can achieve this where chemical insecticides have little impact. These results support broadening the current vector control paradigm beyond fast-acting chemical toxins.

Warmer temperatures reduce the vectorial capacity of malaria mosquitoes.

The development rate of parasites and pathogens within vectors typically increases with temperature. Accordingly, transmission intensity is generally assumed to be higher under warmer conditions. However, development is only one component of parasite/pathogen life history and there has been little research exploring the temperature sensitivity of other traits that contribute to transmission intensity. Here, using a rodent malaria, we show that vector competence (the maximum proportion of infectious mosquitoes, which implicitly includes parasite survival across the incubation period) tails off at higher temperatures, even though parasite development rate increases. We also show that the standard measure of the parasite incubation period (i.e. time until the first mosquitoes within a cohort become infectious following an infected blood-meal) is incomplete because parasite development follows a cumulative distribution, which itself varies with temperature. Including these effects in a simple model dramatically alters estimates of transmission intensity and reduces the optimum temperature for transmission. These results highlight the need to understand the interactive effects of environmental temperature on multiple host-disease life-history traits and challenge the assumptions of many current disease models that ignore this complexity.

Real-time quantitative PCR for analysis of candidate fungal biopesticides against malaria: Technique validation and first applications

Recent research has indicated that fungal biopesticides could augment existing malaria vector control tools. Here we present a set of methodologies to monitor the in vivo kinetics of entomopathogenic fungi in Anopheles in the presence or absence of malaria parasites using quantitative real-time PCR. Three qPCR assays were successfully developed for counting fungal genomes: “specific” assays capable of distinguishing two well characterized fungal entomopathogens Beauveria bassiana isolate IMI391510 and Metarhizium anisopliae var. acridum isolate IMI330189, both of which have previously been shown to be virulent to Anopheles mosquitoes, and a “generic” fungal assay for determining any fungal burden. A fourth assay to Plasmodium chabaudi enabled quantification of co-infecting malarial parasites. All qPCR assays provide sensitive, target-specific, and robust quantification over a linear range of greater than five orders of magnitude (seven orders of magnitude for the fungal assays). B. bassiana growth within mosquitoes exposed to three different conidial challenge doses was monitored using the B. bassiana-specific assay and represents the first description of entomopathogenic fungal replication within an insect host. This revealed that, irrespective of challenge dose, after several days of relatively little replication, a sudden on-set of substantial nuclear division occurs, accompanied by physical fungal growth (hyphae) within the mosquito haemocoel shortly before death. Exposure to higher densities of conidia resulted in significantly greater pick-up by mosquitoes and to elevated fungal burdens at each time point sampled. High fungal burdens, comparable to those identified in cadavers, were attained more rapidly and mortalities occurred earlier post-exposure with increasing challenge dose. The lines of research made possible by the qPCR assays described here will contribute to optimization of fungal biopesticides against malaria and other vector-borne diseases.