Soma Nath Sapkota

Underplating in the Himalaya-Tibet Collision Zone Revealed by the Hi-CLIMB Experiment

Himalayan-Tibetan Underplate The Himalayas formed from the collision of India with Eurasia beginning about 50 million years ago, but the fate and position of the subducted Indian crust was not well defined until the Hi-CLIMB seismic experiment was initiated. The centerpiece of the project is an 800-kilometer-long, closely spaced, linear array of broadband seismographs, extending from the Ganges lowland, across the Himalayas, and onto the central Tibetan plateau. Nábělek et al. (p. 1371) present images of the crust and upper mantle of the Southern Tibetan plateau underthrust northward by the Indian plate, in which they trace the base of the Indian plate to 31°N. The character of the crust-mantle interface in this region suggests that the Indian crust is at least partly decoupled from the mantle beneath. A seismic study delineates the position and local thickening of the Indian plate underlying the Himalayas and southern Tibet. We studied the formation of the Himalayan mountain range and the Tibetan Plateau by investigating their lithospheric structure. Using an 800-kilometer-long, densely spaced seismic array, we have constructed an image of the crust and upper mantle beneath the Himalayas and the southern Tibetan Plateau. The image reveals in a continuous fashion the Main Himalayan thrust fault as it extends from a shallow depth under Nepal to the mid-crust under southern Tibet. Indian crust can be traced to 31°N. The crust/mantle interface beneath Tibet is anisotropic, indicating shearing during its formation. The dipping mantle fabric suggests that the Indian mantle is subducting in a diffuse fashion along several evolving subparallel structures.

Convergence rate across the Nepal Himalaya and interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust: Implications for seismic hazard

We document geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya using GPS times series from 30 stations in Nepal and southern Tibet, in addition to previously published campaign GPS points and leveling data and determine the pattern of interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). The noise on the daily GPS positions is modeled as a combination of white and colored noise, in order to infer secular velocities at the stations with consistent uncertainties. We then locate the pole of rotation of the Indian plate in the ITRF 2005 reference frame at longitude = − 1.34° ± 3.31°, latitude = 51.4° ± 0.3° with an angular velocity of Ω = 0.5029 ± 0.0072°/Myr. The pattern of coupling on the MHT is computed on a fault dipping 10° to the north and whose strike roughly follows the arcuate shape of the Himalaya. The model indicates that the MHT is locked from the surface to a distance of approximately 100 km down dip, corresponding to a depth of 15 to 20 km. In map view, the transition zone between the locked portion of the MHT and the portion which is creeping at the long term slip rate seems to be at the most a few tens of kilometers wide and coincides with the belt of midcrustal microseismicity underneath the Himalaya. According to a previous study based on thermokinematic modeling of thermochronological and thermobarometric data, this transition seems to happen in a zone where the temperature reaches 350°C. The convergence between India and South Tibet proceeds at a rate of 17.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr in central and eastern Nepal and 20.5 ± 1 mm/yr in western Nepal. The moment deficit due to locking of the MHT in the interseismic period accrues at a rate of 6.6 ± 0.4 × 10^(19) Nm/yr on the MHT underneath Nepal. For comparison, the moment released by the seismicity over the past 500 years, including 14 M_W ≥ 7 earthquakes with moment magnitudes up to 8.5, amounts to only 0.9 × 10^(19) Nm/yr, indicating a large deficit of seismic slip over that period or very infrequent large slow slip events. No large slow slip event has been observed however over the 20 years covered by geodetic measurements in the Nepal Himalaya. We discuss the magnitude and return period of M > 8 earthquakes required to balance the long term slip budget on the MHT.

Slip pulse and resonance of the Kathmandu basin during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

The bigger they are, the harder they fall The magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake hit Nepal on 25 April 2015. The earthquake killed thousands and caused great damage. Galetzka et al. determined how the fault that caused this earthquake ruptured. The rupture showed a smooth slip pulse 20 km wide that moved eastward along the fault over about 6 s. The nature of the rupture limited damage to regular dwellings but generated shaking that collapsed taller structures. Science, this issue p. 1091 Continuous GPS and InSAR measurements record slip on the fault responsible for the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Detailed geodetic imaging of earthquake ruptures enhances our understanding of earthquake physics and associated ground shaking. The 25 April 2015 moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Gorkha, Nepal was the first large continental megathrust rupture to have occurred beneath a high-rate (5-hertz) Global Positioning System (GPS) network. We used GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data to model the earthquake rupture as a slip pulse ~20 kilometers in width, ~6 seconds in duration, and with a peak sliding velocity of 1.1 meters per second, which propagated toward the Kathmandu basin at ~3.3 kilometers per second over ~140 kilometers. The smooth slip onset, indicating a large (~5-meter) slip-weakening distance, caused moderate ground shaking at high frequencies (>1 hertz; peak ground acceleration, ~16% of Earth’s gravity) and minimized damage to vernacular dwellings. Whole-basin resonance at a period of 4 to 5 seconds caused the collapse of tall structures, including cultural artifacts.

Primary surface ruptures of the great Himalayan earthquakes in 1934 and 1255

It is unclear where plate boundary thrusts generate giant rather than great earthquakes. Along the Himalayas, the source sizes and recurrence times of large seismic events are particularly uncertain, since no surface signatures were found for those that shook the range in the twentieth century. Here we challenge the consensus that these events remained blind and did not rupture the surface. We use geomorphological mapping of fluvial deposits, palaeo-seismological logging of river-cut cliffs and trench walls, and modelling of calibrated 14C ages, to show that the Mw 8.2 Bihar–Nepal earthquake on 15 January 1934 did break the surface: traces of the rupture are clear along at least 150 km of the Main Frontal Thrust fault in Nepal, between 85 50 and 87 20 E. Furthermore, we date collapse wedges in the Sir Valley and find that the 7 June AD 1255 earthquake, an event that devastated Kathmandu and mortally wounded the Nepalese King Abhaya Malla, also ruptured the surface along this stretch of the mega-thrust. Thus, in the past 1,000 years, two great earthquakes, 679 years apart, rather than one giant eleventh-century AD event, contributed to the frontal uplift of young river terraces in eastern Nepal. The rare surface expression of these earthquakes implies that surface ruptures of other reputedly blind great Himalayan events might exist.

Thermal structure and exhumation history of the Lesser Himalaya in central Nepal

The Lesser Himalaya (LH) consists of metasedimentary rocks that have been scrapped off from the underthrusting Indian crust and accreted to the mountain range over the last ~20 Myr. It now forms a significant fraction of the Himalayan collisional orogen. We document the kinematics and thermal metamorphism associated with the deformation and exhumation of the LH, combining thermometric and thermochronological methods with structural geology. Peak metamorphic temperatures estimated from Raman spectroscopy of carbonaceous material decrease gradually from 520°–550°C below the Main Central Thrust zone down to less than 330°C. These temperatures describe structurally a 20°–50°C/km inverted apparent gradient. The Ar muscovite ages from LH samples and from the overlying crystalline thrust sheets all indicate the same regular trend; i.e., an increase from about 3–4 Ma near the front of the high range to about 20 Ma near the leading edge of the thrust sheets, about 80 km to the south. This suggests that the LH has been exhumed jointly with the overlying nappes as a result of overthrusting by about 5 mm/yr. For a convergence rate of about 20 mm/yr, this implies underthrusting of the Indian basement below the Himalaya by about 15 mm/yr. The structure, metamorphic grade and exhumation history of the LH supports the view that, since the mid-Miocene, the Himalayan orogen has essentially grown by underplating, rather than by frontal accretion. This process has resulted from duplexing at a depth close to the brittle-ductile transition zone, by southward migration of a midcrustal ramp along the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, and is estimated to have resulted in a net flux of up to 150 m^2/yr of LH rocks into the Himalayan orogenic wedge. The steep inverse thermal gradient across the LH is interpreted to have resulted from a combination of underplating and post metamorphic shearing of the underplated units.

Estimating the return times of great Himalayan earthquakes in eastern Nepal : evidence from the Patu and Bardibas strands of the main frontal thrust

The return times of large Himalayan earthquakes are poorly constrained. Despite historical devastation of cities along the mountain range, definitive links between events and specific segments of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) are not established, and paleoseismological records have not documented the occurrence of several similar events at the same location. In east central Nepal, however, recently discovered primary surface ruptures of that megathrust in the A.D. 1255 and 1934 earthquakes are associated with flights of tectonically uplifted terraces. We present here a refined, longer slip history of the MFT’s two overlapping strands (Patu and Bardibas Thrusts) in that region, based on updated geomorphic/neotectonic mapping of active faulting, two 1.3 km long shallow seismic profiles, and logging of two river-cut cliffs, three paleoseismological trenches, and several pits, with constraints from 74 detrital charcoals and 14 cosmogenic nuclide ages. The amount of hanging wall uplift on the Patu thrust since 3650 ± 450 years requires three more events than the two aforementioned. The uplift rate (8.5 ± 1.5mm/yr), thrust dip (25° ± 5°N), and apparent characteristic behavior imply 12–17.5m of slip per event. On the Bardibas thrust, discrete pulses of colluvial deposition resulting from the coseismic growth of a flexural fold scarp suggest the occurrence of six or seven paleo-earthquakes in the last 4500 ± 50 years. The coeval rupture of both strands during great Himalayan earthquakes implies that in eastern Nepal, the late Holocene return times of such earthquakes probably ranged between 750 ± 140 and 870 ± 350 years.

Long-term growth of the Himalaya inferred from interseismic InSAR measurement

The rise and support of the ∼5000 m topographic scarp at the front of Indian-Eurasian collision in the Himalaya involves long-term uplift above a mid-crustal ramp within the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) system. Locking of the shallower portion of the flat-ramp-flat during the interseismic period also produces transient uplift above the transition zone. However, spatial and temporal relationships between permanent and transient vertical deformation in the Himalaya are poorly constrained, leading to an unresolved causal relationship between the two. Here, we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to measure interseismic uplift on a transect crossing the whole Himalaya in central Nepal. The uplift velocity of 7 mm/yr at the front of the Annapurna mountain range is explained by an 18–21 mm/yr slip rate on the deep shallow-dipping portion of the MHT, with full locking of the mid-crustal ramp underlying the High Himalaya. The transient uplift peak observed by InSAR matches spatially with the long-term uplift peak deduced from the study of trans-Himalayan river incision, although models of the seismic cycle involving thrusting over a ramp of fixed geometry predict an ∼20 km separation between the two peaks. We argue that this coincidence indicates that today’s mid-crustal ramp in central Nepal is located southward with respect to its average long-term location, suggesting that mountain growth proceeds by frontward migration of the ramp driven by underplating of material from the Indian plate under the Himalaya.

Seasonal modulation of seismicity in the Himalaya of Nepal

For the period 1995–2000, the Nepal seismic network recorded 37 ± 8% fewer earthquakes in the summer than in the winter; for local magnitudes ML > 2 to ML > 4 the percentage increases from 31% to 63% respectively. We show the probability of observing this by chance is less than 1%. We find that most surface loading phenomena are either too small, or have the wrong polarity to enhance winter seismicity. We consider enhanced Coulomb failure caused by a pore-pressure increase at seismogenic depths as a possible mechanism. For this to enhance winter seismicity, however, we find that fluid diffusion following surface hydraulic loading would need to be associated with a six-month phase lag, which we consider to be possible, though unlikely. We favor instead the suppression of summer seismicity caused by stress-loading accompanying monsoon rains in the Ganges and northern India, a mechanism that is discussed in a companion article.

Structural segmentation controlled the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake rupture in Nepal

The ongoing collision of India with Asia is partly accommodated by slip on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). The 25 April 2015, M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake is the most recent major event to rupture the MHT, which dips gently northward beneath central Nepal. Although the geology of the range has been studied for decades, fundamental aspects of its deep structure remain disputed. Here, we develop a structural cross section and a three-dimensional, geologically informed model of the MHT that are consistent with seismic observations from the Gorkha earthquake. A comparison of our model to a detailed slip inversion data set shows that the slip patch closely matches an ovalshaped, gently dipping fault surface bounded on all sides by steeper ramps. The Gorkha earthquake rupture seems to have been limited by the geometry of that fault segment. This is a significant step forward in understanding the deep geometry of the MHT and its effect on earthquake nucleation and propagation. Published models of fault locking do not correlate with the slip patch or our fault model in the vicinity of the earthquake, further suggesting that fault geometry was the primary control on this event. Our result emphasizes the importance of adequately constraining subsurface fault geometry in megathrusts in order to better assess the sizes and locations of future earthquakes.

Slip deficit in central Nepal: omen for a repeat of the 1344 AD earthquake?

In 1255, 1344, and 1408 AD, then again in 1833, 1934, and 2015, large earthquakes, devastated Kathmandu. The 1255 and 1934 surface ruptures have been identified east of the city, along comparable segments of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Whether the other two pairs of events were similar is unclear. Taking into account charcoal’s age inheritance, we revisit the timing of terrace offsets at key sites to compare them with the seismic record since 1200 AD. The location, extent, and moment of the 1833 and 2015 events imply that they released only a small part of the regional slip deficit on a deep thrust segment that stopped north of the Siwaliks. By contrast, the 1344 or 1408 AD earthquake may have ruptured the MFT up to the surface in central Nepal between Kathmandu and Pokhara, east of the surface trace of the great 1505 AD earthquake which affected western Nepal. If so, the whole megathrust system in Nepal broke in a sequence of earthquakes that lasted less than three centuries, with ruptures that propagated up to the surface from east to west. Today’s situation in the Himalayan seismic sequence might be close to that of the fourteenth century.