Sudhir Rajaure

Convergence rate across the Nepal Himalaya and interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust: Implications for seismic hazard

We document geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya using GPS times series from 30 stations in Nepal and southern Tibet, in addition to previously published campaign GPS points and leveling data and determine the pattern of interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault (MHT). The noise on the daily GPS positions is modeled as a combination of white and colored noise, in order to infer secular velocities at the stations with consistent uncertainties. We then locate the pole of rotation of the Indian plate in the ITRF 2005 reference frame at longitude = − 1.34° ± 3.31°, latitude = 51.4° ± 0.3° with an angular velocity of Ω = 0.5029 ± 0.0072°/Myr. The pattern of coupling on the MHT is computed on a fault dipping 10° to the north and whose strike roughly follows the arcuate shape of the Himalaya. The model indicates that the MHT is locked from the surface to a distance of approximately 100 km down dip, corresponding to a depth of 15 to 20 km. In map view, the transition zone between the locked portion of the MHT and the portion which is creeping at the long term slip rate seems to be at the most a few tens of kilometers wide and coincides with the belt of midcrustal microseismicity underneath the Himalaya. According to a previous study based on thermokinematic modeling of thermochronological and thermobarometric data, this transition seems to happen in a zone where the temperature reaches 350°C. The convergence between India and South Tibet proceeds at a rate of 17.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr in central and eastern Nepal and 20.5 ± 1 mm/yr in western Nepal. The moment deficit due to locking of the MHT in the interseismic period accrues at a rate of 6.6 ± 0.4 × 10^(19) Nm/yr on the MHT underneath Nepal. For comparison, the moment released by the seismicity over the past 500 years, including 14 M_W ≥ 7 earthquakes with moment magnitudes up to 8.5, amounts to only 0.9 × 10^(19) Nm/yr, indicating a large deficit of seismic slip over that period or very infrequent large slow slip events. No large slow slip event has been observed however over the 20 years covered by geodetic measurements in the Nepal Himalaya. We discuss the magnitude and return period of M > 8 earthquakes required to balance the long term slip budget on the MHT.

Slip pulse and resonance of the Kathmandu basin during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

The bigger they are, the harder they fall The magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake hit Nepal on 25 April 2015. The earthquake killed thousands and caused great damage. Galetzka et al. determined how the fault that caused this earthquake ruptured. The rupture showed a smooth slip pulse 20 km wide that moved eastward along the fault over about 6 s. The nature of the rupture limited damage to regular dwellings but generated shaking that collapsed taller structures. Science, this issue p. 1091 Continuous GPS and InSAR measurements record slip on the fault responsible for the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. Detailed geodetic imaging of earthquake ruptures enhances our understanding of earthquake physics and associated ground shaking. The 25 April 2015 moment magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Gorkha, Nepal was the first large continental megathrust rupture to have occurred beneath a high-rate (5-hertz) Global Positioning System (GPS) network. We used GPS and interferometric synthetic aperture radar data to model the earthquake rupture as a slip pulse ~20 kilometers in width, ~6 seconds in duration, and with a peak sliding velocity of 1.1 meters per second, which propagated toward the Kathmandu basin at ~3.3 kilometers per second over ~140 kilometers. The smooth slip onset, indicating a large (~5-meter) slip-weakening distance, caused moderate ground shaking at high frequencies (>1 hertz; peak ground acceleration, ~16% of Earth’s gravity) and minimized damage to vernacular dwellings. Whole-basin resonance at a period of 4 to 5 seconds caused the collapse of tall structures, including cultural artifacts.

Strong-motion observations of the M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and development of the N-shake strong-motion network

We present and describe strong-motion data observations from the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence collected using existing and new Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) and U.S. Geological Survey NetQuakes sensors located in the Kathmandu Valley. A comparison of QCN data with waveforms recorded by a conventional strong-motion (NetQuakes) instrument validates the QCN data. We present preliminary analysis of spectral accelerations, and peak ground acceleration and velocity for earthquakes up to M 7.3 from the QCN stations, as well as preliminary analysis of the mainshock recording from the NetQuakes station. We show that mainshock peak accelerations were lower than expected and conclude the Kathmandu Valley experienced a pervasively nonlinear response during the mainshock. Phase picks from the QCN and NetQuakes data are also used to improve aftershock locations. This study confirms the utility of QCN instruments to contribute to ground-motion investigations and aftershock response in regions where conventional instrumentation and open-access seismic data are limited. Initial pilot installations of QCN instruments in 2014 are now being expanded to create the Nepal–Shaking Hazard Assessment for Kathmandu and its Environment (N-SHAKE) network. Online Material: Figures of Pg arrivals, earthquake locations, epicenter change vectors, and travel-time misfit vector residuals, and tables of QCN and NetQuake stations and relocated hypocenter timing, location, and magnitude.

Persistence of radon-222 flux during monsoon at a geothermal zone in Nepal

The Syabru-Bensi hydrothermal zone, Langtang region (Nepal), is characterized by high radon-222 and CO(2) discharge. Seasonal variations of gas fluxes were studied on a reference transect in a newly discovered gas discharge zone. Radon-222 and CO(2) fluxes were measured with the accumulation chamber technique, coupled with the scintillation flask method for radon. In the reference transect, fluxes reach exceptional mean values, as high as 8700+/-1500 gm(-2)d(-1) for CO(2) and 3400+/-100 x 10(-3) Bq m(-2)s(-1) for radon. Gases fluxes were measured in September 2007 during the monsoon and during the dry winter season, in December 2007 to January 2008 and in December 2008 to January 2009. Contrary to expectations, radon and its carrier gas fluxes were similar during both seasons. The integrated flux along this transect was approximately the same for radon, with a small increase of 11+/-4% during the wet season, whereas it was reduced by 38+/-5% during the monsoon for CO(2). In order to account for the persistence of the high gas emissions during monsoon, watering experiments have been performed at selected radon measurement points. After watering, radon flux decreased within 5 min by a factor of 2-7 depending on the point. Subsequently, it returned to its original value, firstly, by an initial partial recovery within 3-4h, followed by a slow relaxation, lasting around 10h and possibly superimposed by diurnal variations. Monsoon, in this part of the Himalayas, proceeds generally by brutal rainfall events separated by two- or three-day lapses. Thus, the recovery ability shown in the watering experiments accounts for the observed long-term persistence of gas discharge. This persistence is an important asset for long-term monitoring, for example to study possible temporal variations associated with stress accumulation and release.

Large-scale organization of carbon dioxide discharge in the Nepal Himalayas

Gaseous carbon dioxide (CO 2) and radon-222 release from the ground was investigated along the Main Central Thrust zone in the Nepal Himalayas. From 2200 CO 2 and 900 radon-222 flux measurements near 13 hot springs from western to central Nepal, we obtained total CO 2 and radon discharges varying from 10 A3 to 1.6 mol s A1 and 20 to 1600 Bq s A1 , respectively. We observed a coherent organization at spatial scales of ≈ 10 km in a given region: low CO 2 and radon discharges around Pokhara (midwestern Nepal) and in the Bhote Kosi Valley (east Nepal); low CO 2 but large radon discharges in Lower Dolpo (west Nepal); and large CO 2 and radon discharges in the upper Trisuli Valley (central Nepal). A 110 km long CO 2-producing segment, with high carbon isotopic ratios, suggesting metamorphic decarbonation, is thus evidenced from 84.5°E to 85.5°E. This spatial organization could be controlled by geological heterogeneity or large Himalayan earthquakes.