Sonya K. Miller

Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia

Following the suggestions of a recent National Research Council report [NRC (National Research Council) (2006) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (Natl Acad Press, Washington, DC).], we reconstruct surface temperature at hemispheric and global scale for much of the last 2,000 years using a greatly expanded set of proxy data for decadal-to-centennial climate changes, recently updated instrumental data, and complementary methods that have been thoroughly tested and validated with model simulation experiments. Our results extend previous conclusions that recent Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases are likely anomalous in a long-term context. Recent warmth appears anomalous for at least the past 1,300 years whether or not tree-ring data are used. If tree-ring data are used, the conclusion can be extended to at least the past 1,700 years, but with additional strong caveats. The reconstructed amplitude of change over past centuries is greater than hitherto reported, with somewhat greater Medieval warmth in the Northern Hemisphere, albeit still not reaching recent levels.

Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

Is the end of the warming hiatus nigh? Which recent climate changes have been forced by greenhouse gas emissions, and which have been natural fluctuations of the climate system? Steinman et al. combined observational data and a large collection of climate models to assess the Northern Hemisphere climate over the past 150 years (see the Perspective by Booth). At various points in time, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation have played particularly large roles in producing temperature trends. Their effects have combined to cause the apparent pause in warming at the beginning of the 21st century, known as the warming “hiatus.” This pause is projected to end in the near future as temperatures resume their upward climb. Science, this issue p. 988; see also p. 952 The recent slowdown in global temperature increase is consistent with internal Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability. [Also see Perspective by Booth] The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth’s climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed “AMO” and “PMO,” respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or “false pause” in warming of the past decade.

Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Ozonesonde Network Study (IONS) 2004: 1. Summertime upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone over northeastern North America

Coordinated ozonesonde launches from the Intercontinental Transport Experiment (INTEX) Ozonesonde Network Study (IONS) (http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/intex/ions.html) in July-August 2004 provided nearly 300 O3 profiles from eleven North American sites and the R/V Ronald H. Brown in the Gulf of Maine. With the IONS period dominated by low-pressure conditions over northeastern North America (NENA), the free troposphere in that region was frequently enriched by stratospheric O3. Stratospheric O3 contributions to the NENA tropospheric O3 budget are computed through analyses of O3 laminae (Pierce and Grant, 1998; Teitelbaum et al., 1996), tracers (potential vorticity, water vapor), and trajectories. The lasting influence of stratospheric incursions into the troposphere is demonstrated, and the computed stratospheric contribution to tropospheric column O3 over the R/V Ronald H. Brown and six sites in Michigan, Virginia, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Nova Scotia, 23% ± 3%, is similar to summertime budgets derived from European O3 profiles (Collette and Ancellet, 2005). Analysis of potential vorticity, Wallops ozonesondes (37.9°N, 75.5°W), and Measurements of Ozone by Airbus In-service Aircraft (MOZAIC) O3 profiles for NENA airports in June-July-August 1996–2004 shows that the stratospheric fraction in 2004 may be typical. Boundary layer O3 at Wallops and northeast U.S. sites during IONS also resembled O3 climatology (June-July-August 1996–2003). However, statistical classification of Wallops O3 profiles shows the frequency of profiles with background, nonpolluted boundary layer O3 was greater than normal during IONS.

On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO

We estimate the low-frequency internal variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature using observed temperature variations, which include both forced and internal variability components, and several alternative model simulations of the (natural + anthropogenic) forced component alone. We then generate an ensemble of alternative historical temperature histories based on the statistics of the estimated internal variability. Using this ensemble, we show, first, that recent NH mean temperatures fall within the range of expected multidecadal variability. Using the synthetic temperature histories, we also show that certain procedures used in past studies to estimate internal variability, and in particular, an internal multidecadal oscillation termed the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” or “AMO”, fail to isolate the true internal variability when it is a priori known. Such procedures yield an AMO signal with an inflated amplitude and biased phase, attributing some of the recent NH mean temperature rise to the AMO. The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming. Claims of multidecadal “stadium wave” patterns of variation across multiple climate indices are also shown to likely be an artifact of this flawed procedure for isolating putative climate oscillations.

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

The level of agreement between climate model simulations and observed surface temperature change is a topic of scientific and policy concern. While the Earth system continues to accumulate energy due to anthropogenic and other radiative forcings, estimates of recent surface temperature evolution fall at the lower end of climate model projections. Global mean temperatures from climate model simulations are typically calculated using surface air temperatures, while the corresponding observations are based on a blend of air and sea surface temperatures. This work quantifies a systematic bias in model-observation comparisons arising from differential warming rates between sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures over oceans. A further bias arises from the treatment of temperatures in regions where the sea ice boundary has changed. Applying the methodology of the HadCRUT4 record to climate model temperature fields accounts for 38% of the discrepancy in trend between models and observations over the period 1975–2014.

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Convective and Wave Signatures in Ozone Profiles Over the Equatorial Americas: Views from TC4 (2007) and SHADOZ

[1] During the TC4 (Tropical Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling) campaign in July–August 2007, daily ozonesondes were launched over coastal Las Tablas, Panama (7.8°N, 80°W) and several times per week at Alajuela, Costa Rica (10°N, 84°W). Wave activity, detected most prominently in 100–300 m thick ozone laminae in the tropical tropopause layer, occurred in 50% (Las Tablas) and 40% (Alajuela) of the soundings. These layers, associated with vertical displacements and classified as gravity waves (GW, possibly Kelvin waves) by laminar identification, occur with similar structure and frequency over the Paramaribo (5.8°N, 55°W) and San Cristobal (0.92°S, 90°W) Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) sites. GW‐labeled laminae in individual soundings correspond to cloud outflow as indicated by DC‐8 tracers and other aircraft data, confirming convective initiation of equatorial waves. Layers representing quasi‐ horizontal displacements, referred to as Rossby waves by the laminar technique, are robust features in soundings from 23 July to 5 August. The features associated with Rossby waves correspond to extratropical influence, possibly stratospheric, and sometimes to pollution transport. Comparison of Las Tablas and Alajuela ozone budgets with 1999– 2007 Paramaribo and San Cristobal soundings shows that TC4 is typical of climatology for the equatorial Americas. Overall during TC4, convection and associated waves appear to dominate ozone transport in the tropical tropopause layer; intrusions from the extratropics occur throughout the free troposphere.

ENSO Predictability of a Fully Coupled GCM Model Using Singular Vector Analysis

Abstract Using a recently developed method of computing climatically relevant singular vectors (SVs), the error growth properties of ENSO in a fully coupled global climate model are investigated. In particular, the authors examine in detail how singular vectors are influenced by the phase of ENSO cycle—the physical variable under consideration as well as the error norm deployed. Previous work using SVs for studying ENSO predictability has been limited to intermediate or hybrid coupled models. The results show that the singular vectors share many of the properties already seen in simpler models. Thus, for example, the singular vector spectrum is dominated by one fastest growing member, regardless of the phase of ENSO cycle and the variable of perturbation or the error norm; in addition the growth rates of the singular vectors are very sensitive to the phase of the ENSO cycle, the variable of perturbation, and the error norm. This particular CGCM also displays some differences from simpler models; thus subs...

The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth

2014 was nominally the warmest year on record for both the globe and northern hemisphere based on historical records spanning the past one and a half centuries1,2. It was the latest in a recent run of record temperatures spanning the past decade and a half. Press accounts reported odds as low as one-in-650 million that the observed run of global temperature records would be expected to occur in the absence of human-caused global warming. Press reports notwithstanding, the question of how likely observed temperature records may have have been both with and without human influence is interesting in its own right. Here we attempt to address that question using a semi-empirical approach that combines the latest (CMIP53) climate model simulations with observations of global and hemispheric mean temperature. We find that individual record years and the observed runs of record-setting temperatures were extremely unlikely to have occurred in the absence of human-caused climate change, though not nearly as unlikely as press reports have suggested. These same record temperatures were, by contrast, quite likely to have occurred in the presence of anthropogenic climate forcing.

Gravity and Rossby wave signatures in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere based on Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ), 1998–2007

[1] Prior investigations attempted to determine the relative influence of advection and convective processes on ozone and water vapor distributions in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through analyses of tracers, related physical parameters (e.g., outgoing long‐wave radiation, precipitable water, and temperature), or with models. In this study, stable laminae in Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesonde Network (SHADOZ) ozone profiles from 1998 to 2007 are interpreted in terms of gravity waves (GW) or Rossby waves (RW) that are identified with vertical and quasi‐horizontal displacements, respectively. Using the method of Pierce and Grant (1998) as applied by Thompson et al. (2007a, 2007b, 2010, 2011), amplitudes and frequencies in ozone laminae are compared among representative SHADOZ sites over Africa and the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. GW signals maximize in the TTL and lower stratosphere. Depending on site and season, GW are identified in up to 90% of the soundings. GW are most prevalent over the Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, a distribution consistent with vertically propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. Ozone laminae from RW occur more often below the tropical tropopause and with lower frequency (<20%). Gravity wave and Rossby wave indices (GWI, RWI) are formulated to facilitate analysis of interannual variability of wave signatures among sites. GWI is positively correlated with a standard ENSO (El Nino–Southern Oscillation) index over American Samoa (14°S, 171°W) and negatively correlated at Watukosek, Java (7.5°S, 114°E), Kuala Lumpur (3°N, 102°E), and Ascension Island (8°S, 15°W). Generally, the responses of GW and RW to ENSO are consistent with prior studies.