Soo Aleman

Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in selected countries

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading indicator for liver disease. New treatment options are becoming available, and there is a need to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV. Data for prevalence, viremia, genotype, diagnosis and treatment were obtained through literature searches and expert consensus for 16 countries. For some countries, data from centralized registries were used to estimate diagnosis and treatment rates. Data for the number of liver transplants and the proportion attributable to HCV were obtained from centralized databases. Viremic prevalence estimates varied widely between countries, ranging from 0.3% in Austria, England and Germany to 8.5% in Egypt. The largest viremic populations were in Egypt, with 6 358 000 cases in 2008 and Brazil with 2 106 000 cases in 2007. The age distribution of cases differed between countries. In most countries, prevalence rates were higher among males, reflecting higher rates of injection drug use. Diagnosis, treatment and transplant levels also differed considerably between countries. Reliable estimates characterizing HCV‐infected populations are critical for addressing HCV‐related morbidity and mortality. There is a need to quantify the burden of chronic HCV infection at the national level.

A Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Persists Long-term After Sustained Virologic Response in Patients With Hepatitis C-Associated Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND The long-term effect of sustained virologic response (SVR) to antiviral therapy on the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver complications, liver-related death, and overall death in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with liver cirrhosis is not fully known. METHODS These risks were evaluated during long-term follow-up in 351 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. One hundred ten patients with SVR, 193 with non-SVR, and 48 who were untreated were included in a multicenter cohort that was initiated in 2001 and prospectively followed up for a mean of 5.3 (SD, 2.8) years. Complementary follow-up data from national registries were used to minimize the loss of patients during follow-up. RESULTS Six patients with SVR developed HCC at 0.04, 0.64, 2.4, 7.4, 7.4, and 7.6 years, respectively, after achieving SVR. The incidences of HCC, any liver complication, liver-related death, and overall death per 100 person-years were significantly lower in SVR time with 1.0, 0.9, 0.7, and 1.9, compared to 2.3, 3.2, 3.0, and 4.1 in non-SVR and 4.0, 4.9, 4.5, and 5.1 in untreated time. The long-term consequences did not decline significantly after >3 years versus during the first 3 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS The risk for HCC, liver decompensation, and death in patients with liver cirrhosis related to HCV was markedly reduced after SVR, but a long-term risk of developing HCC remains for up to 8 years. Cirrhotic patients with HCV who achieve SVR should therefore maintain long-term surveillance for HCC. Future studies aimed to better identify those with remaining long-term risk for HCC are needed.

Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease burden

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV‐related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3–5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

Drug resistance at low viraemia in HIV-1-infected patients with antiretroviral combination therapy

Objective To study the appearance of drug-induced mutations at low viraemia in treated HIV-1-infected patients. Design and methods Fourteen patients, who received their first (n = 5), second (n = 7) or third (n = 2) line antiretroviral combination therapy, developed a persistent low-grade viraemia after an initial decrease of the viral load (VL) to less than 500 copies/ml. The amount of HIV-1 RNA (n = 71) and reverse transcriptase (RT)/protease sequences (n = 56) were determined in longitudinally obtained plasma samples during a mean period of 16.6 months. Results In the vast majority (93%) of patients, new primary resistance mutations were found in the RT and/or protease genes at virological failure at a median VL of 500 and 200 copies/ml, respectively. Drug-experienced patients developed mutations at a lower VL than naive patients. In one previously protease inhibitor-naive patient, primary RT and protease mutations were detected, although the VL was less than 50 copies/ml. A serial accumulation of drug resistance mutations was seen despite the VL increase being mostly modest, reaching a median of 1450 copies/ml at the end of the study, and the CD4 T cell counts continued to increase. One patient still had a VL of 300 copies/ml after 28 months, despite the presence of the multidrug-resistance Q151M mutation. Conclusion Low viraemia after virological treatment failure can select for virus with several new drug resistance mutations, despite a concomitant increase in CD4 T cell counts. This serial accumulation of mutations is likely to exhaust future drug options

Risk of cirrhosis-related complications in patients with advanced fibrosis following hepatitis C virus eradication.

BACKGROUND & AIMS The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced but not eradicated among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced advanced hepatic fibrosis who attained sustained viral response (SVR). We aimed to assess the risk of cirrhosis-related complications in this specific group of patients. METHODS Data from previously reported Western cohort studies including patients with chronic HCV infection and bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis who attained SVR were pooled for survival analyses on the individual patient level. The primary endpoint was HCC and the secondary endpoint was clinical disease progression, defined as liver failure, HCC or death. RESULTS Included were 1000 patients with SVR. Median age was 52.7 (IQR 45.1-59.7) years, 676 (68%) were male and 842 (85%) had cirrhosis. Median follow-up was 5.7 (IQR 2.9-8.0) years. Fifty-one patients developed HCC and 101 had clinical disease progression. The cumulative 8-year HCC incidence was 1.8 (95% CI 0.0-4.3) among patients with bridging fibrosis and 8.7% (95% CI 6.0-11.4) among those with cirrhosis (p=0.058). Within the cirrhosis group, the 8-year HCC incidence was 2.6% (95% CI 0.0-5.5) among patients <45years, 9.7% (95% CI 5.8-13.6) among patients from 45-60years, and 12.2% (95% CI 5.3-19.1) among patients >60years of age at start of therapy (p=0.006). Multivariable Cox analyses indicated that higher age, lower platelet count and diabetes mellitus were independently associated with development of HCC. After 8years 4.2% (95% CI 0.1-8.3) of patients with bridging fibrosis and 15.8% (95% CI 12.3-19.3) of patients with cirrhosis experienced clinical disease progression (p=0.007). CONCLUSIONS Patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis and SVR showed an annual risk of approximately 1% for HCC and 2% for clinical disease progression. Therefore, to prevent HCC surveillance, chronic HCV infection should preferably be treated before cirrhosis has developed. LAY SUMMARY Patients with cirrhosis who were able to eradicate their chronic HCV infection remain at substantial risk of primary liver cancer. The risk of liver cancer increases with higher age, laboratory makers suggesting more severe liver disease, and presence of diabetes mellitus. Also after successful antiviral therapy patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis should thus remain included in follow-up for early detection of liver cancer.

Cause of death in individuals with chronic HBV and/or HCV infection, a nationwide community‐based register study

Summary.  Studies on chronic viral hepatitis and mortality have often been made on selected populations or in high‐endemic countries. The aim of this study was to investigate the causes of death and the mortality rates in the nationwide cohorts of people chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and/or hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Sweden, a low‐endemic country. All notifications on chronic HBV infection and HCV infection 1990–2003 were linked to the Cause of Death Register. A total of 9517 people with chronic HBV infection, 34 235 people with HCV infection and 1601 with chronic HBV–HCV co‐infection were included, and the mean observation times were 6.4, 6.3 and 7.9 years, respectively. The mortality in the cohorts was compared with age‐ and gender‐specific mortality in the general population and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated. All‐cause mortality was significantly increased, SMR 2.3 (HBV), 5.8 (HCV) and 8.5 (HBV–HCV), with a great excess liver‐related mortality in all cohorts, SMR 21.7, 35.5 and 46.2, respectively. In HCV and HBV–HCV infected there was an increased mortality due to drug‐related psychiatric diagnoses (SMR: 20.7 and 27.6) and external causes (SMR: 12.4 and 11.4), predominantly at younger age. To conclude, this study demonstrated an increased all‐cause mortality, with a great excess mortality from liver disease, in all cohorts. In people with HCV infection the highest excess mortality in younger ages was from drug‐related and external reasons.

Plasma levels of soluble CD27: A simple marker to monitor immune activation during potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1-infected subjects

Plasma levels of soluble CD27 (sCD27) are elevated in diseases characterized by T cell activation and are used as a marker of immune activation. We assessed the usefulness of determining plasma sCD27 as a marker for monitoring immune activation in HIV‐1‐infected patients treated with highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). A first cross‐sectional examination of 68 HIV‐1‐infected and 18 normal subjects showed high levels of sCD27 in HIV‐1 infection; plasma sCD27 was correlated to HIV‐1 viraemia and inversely correlated to CD4+ T cell count. Twenty‐six HIV‐1‐infected patients undergoing HAART were studied at baseline and after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months of therapy. Seven additional patients under HAART were analysed at baseline, during and after interruption of therapy. In the total population, HAART induced a significant and progressive reduction, but not a normalization, of plasma levels of sCD27 after 24 months. A full normalization of plasma sCD27 was observed in the virological responders (undetectable HIV‐1 RNA at months 18 and 24) and also in patients with moderate immunodeficiency at baseline (CD4+ T cell count >200 cells/mm3). Changes in plasma neopterin paralleled the changes in sCD27 but only baseline sCD27 levels were predictive of a greater increase in CD4+ T cell count during the follow‐up. Discontinuation of therapy resulted in a rapid increase of sCD27 plasma levels associated with viraemia rebound and drop in CD4+ T cell count. Our findings suggest that plasma sCD27 may represent an alternative and simple marker to monitor immune activation during potent antiretroviral therapy. HIV‐1‐induced immune activation can be normalized by HAART in successfully treated patients where the disease is not advanced.

Cleavage of the IPS-1/Cardif/MAVS/VISA does not inhibit T cell-mediated elimination of hepatitis C virus non-structural 3/4A-expressing hepatocytes

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) effectively establishes persistent infection in human livers. The non-structural (NS) 3/4A complex participates in this process by cleavage of interferon β (IFNβ) promoter stimulator-1 (IPS-1; also termed Cardif/MAVS/VISA), which inhibits responses to double stranded (ds) RNA. However, it is not known whether this effect extends beyond innate responses. Aims: To test if HCV NS3/4A affects innate and adaptive immune responses in vivo. Methods: NS3 levels were semi-quantified in human liver biopsies, transfected cells, and in transgenic (Tg) mouse livers by western blot. The effect of NS3/4A on dsRNA-mediated signalling and on the integrity of IPS-1 was analysed using in vitro translation, transfected cells and Tg mice. Cytotoxic T cell (CTL)-mediated clearance of transient firefly luciferase (FLuc)- and/or NS3/4A-Tg hepatocytes was determined using in vivo imaging and western blot. Results: NS3 protein levels were in a comparable range (0.1–49 μg/g tissue) in infected human livers and Tg mouse livers. Importantly, these levels of NS3/4A reduced murine innate responses to synthetic dsRNA in vivo, supporting the possibility that this occurs also in infected humans. The likely explanation for this was the NS3/4A-mediated cleavage of mouse IPS-1, albeit less efficiently than human IPS-1. Despite this, FLuc- and/or NS3/4A-expressing murine hepatocytes were effectively eliminated by hepatic CTLs, utilising the classical molecules for virus-infected cell lysis, including CD8, IFNγ, perforin and FasL. Conclusions: Although HCV NS3/4A inhibits the innate immunity, this does not prevent CTL-mediated clearance of NS3/4A-expressing hepatocytes in vivo. Thus, other HCV proteins are most likely responsible for interfering with the adaptive immunity.

Hepatitis C infection among injection drug users in Stockholm Sweden: Prevalence and gender

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is widespread among injection drug users. Young women seem to be at higher risk of acquiring HCV. To optimize future intervention and prevention measures, we studied the epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B (HBV), and HCV infection among men and women. Inclusion criteria for this cross-sectional multicentre study were: history of ever injecting drugs, age > 18 y, and no previous HIV diagnosis. In 310 participants, plasma/serum samples were analysed for HBV, HIV and HCV (anti-HCV, HCV-RNA, and HCV genotype). HCV antibodies were noted in 268 (86.5%) participants, of whom 207 (77.0%) also had detectable HCV-RNA. Genotypes 1 and 3 dominated, at 35.9% and 33.0%, respectively. Women acquired HCV (but not HBV) to a significantly higher degree (RR 2.97, 95% confidence interval 1.11–7.93) during the first y of injecting drugs. They also recovered spontaneously from HCV infection more frequently (RR 2.49, 95% CI 1.28–4.53). The HCV prevalence of about 50% within 2 y after initiation of injection drug use underlines the need for early intervention efforts. Possible causes for higher HCV prevalence and the implications of favourable spontaneous recovery rates among women should be considered when designing intervention and prevention measures.

The future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Sweden and the impact of different treatment strategies

Abstract Objective. Recently, new highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) against hepatitis C virus (HCV) were introduced. Whether these will alleviate the anticipated increase of liver disease burden in Sweden is unknown, partly because high costs may restrict the use. The objectives were to model the HCV epidemic in Sweden, the burden of disease, and the potential impact of different treatment strategies. Material and methods. HCV disease progression was modeled to 2030. Scenarios were simulated using new DAAs with sustained annual treatment rate (n = 1130), reduced treatment rate (n = 380) to maintain budget, and increased treatment rates (n = 1430 or 2260) to reduce HCV infections. Results. With today’s triple therapies, the estimated number of serious liver complications and death are expected to peak in 2021. Using new DAAs among F0–F4 patients, an unchanged annual treatment rate can reduce the number of HCV infections by 10% by 2030; however, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality will remain unchanged. By reducing to 380 treatments annually and focusing on patients with advanced fibrosis (F3–F4), serious complications will remain constant but the total number of HCV infections will increase. By doubling the number of DAA treatments, HCC-incidence and liver-related deaths would decrease by 65–70% by 2030. Conclusion. Mortality and HCC can be reduced with new DAAs and sustained treatment uptake when restricted to F2–F4 patients, or with increased uptake in F0–F4 patients. Treatment restrictions to limit cost may reduce the positive effects and increase the burden of HCV infection. These results may be important for the future strategies of HCV management.