Steen Leleur

Composite decision support by combining cost-benefit and multi-criteria decision analysis

This paper concerns composite decision support based on combining cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for the assessment of economic as well as strategic impacts within transport projects. Specifically a composite model for assessment (COSIMA) is presented as a decision support system (DSS). This COSIMA DSS ensures that the assessment is conducted in a systematic, transparent and explicit way. The modelling principles presented are illuminated with a case study concerning a complex decision problem. The outcome demonstrates the approach as a valuable DSS, and it is concluded that appraisals of large transport projects can be effectively supported using a combination of CBA and MCDA. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.

Modelling decision support and uncertainty for large transport infrastructure projects: The CLG-DSS model of the Øresund Fixed Link

This paper presents a decision support system, named the CLG-DSS model, which makes it possible for decision makers to assess various uncertainties in project appraisal in a systematic and explicit way. This model, a decision support system (DSS) developed within the Danish Centre for Logistics and Freight Transport (CLG) is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) embedded in a wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) by the use of some principles for composite modelling assessment (COSIMA). The CLG-DSS model is set up to make use of scenario analysis (SA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A particular concern in the model is the handling of varying information across the assessment criteria and the application of SA to inform the MCS parameter setting. After the presentation of the modelling principles some ex-post case calculations for the Oresund Fixed Link are illuminating different aspects of appraisal uncertainty and thereby, at the same time, demonstrate the features of the CLG-DSS model as a useful decision support tool. It is finally concluded that appraisal of large infrastructure projects can be effectively supported by dealing with uncertainty issues in accordance with the principles described.

A Systems Approach to Modelling the Regional Economic Effects of Road Pricing

In Denmark, there has been a substantial debate in recent years concerning the consequences of introducing road pricing. This chapter examines some of the regional economic consequences of the full implementation of a GIS-based road pricing system for all roads in Denmark. A Danish model system (MERGE) consisting of an Interregional General Equilibrium model, LINE, a national transport model (LTM model) and an environmental sub-model (TIC-MAP) are presented. LINE is used to make an initial analysis of the primary regional economic effects. In the first step, price changes as a result of road pricing are calculated. In the second step, changes in regional competitiveness affecting demand are calculated. In the final step, revenue from road pricing is re-entered in order to ensure institutional balance and the effects on production, income and employment are calculated.

Societal planning: Identifying a new role for the transport planner—Part I

Abstract It has been amply demonstrated over the last three decades that public planning is subject to rapid change and great uncertainties, both in dealing with political objectives as well as in dealing with new technologies. The Rational Planning Model (RPM), which is still the mainstay of the planning process, is becoming increasingly problematic. After an introduction about the planning of complex systems and planning approaches, this paper examines three topics: (1) the question of rationality and uncertainty; (2) the relationship between rationality and meta‐methodology; and (3) a new role for the planner, both as a technician and as an effective communicator. In the paper the notion of ‘unbounded uncertainty’ is set forth as a relevant concept. The concept is used collectively to point to and explain the many obstacles faced by planners in carrying out planning as prescribed by the RPM. It is concluded that acceptance of planning as essentially tied to such unbounded uncertainly indicates the need...

Examination of Decision Support Systems for Composite CBA and MCDA Assessments of Transport Infrastructure Projects

This paper examines decision support systems (DSS) for composite appraisals of transport infrastructure projects comprising both cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Two DSS, REMBRANDT and COSIMA, are in this context examined and compared using a case study dealing with alternatives for a new high-speed railway line in Sweden. The REMBRANDT system is based on multiplicative value functions and makes use of pair wise comparisons on both attribute and criteria level. The COSIMA system is based on additive value functions and makes use of the REMBRANDT technique using pair wise comparisons on attribute level and swing weights on criteria level. One difference between the two approaches is the focus the COSIMA system puts on combining the CBA and MCDA results influencing, among other things, the way that the final results are expressed. Finally, a recommendation for the use of DSS within transport infrastructure appraisals is set out.

SCOPE – An Integrated Framework for Multi-Attribute Decision Making

This article presents an integrated framework for multi-attribute decision making named SCOPE (System for Combined Planning and Evaluation) that was developed to assess infrastructure policy initiatives—in complex decision environments. The framework comprises scanning as well as assessment issues that are supported by a methodology of both a systemic and a systematic type. Specific use is made of operational research methods such as critical systems heuristics, scenario technique, stakeholder analysis and multi-attribute decision making (MADM). To deal with issues of complexity and ambiguity, planning is redefined as being a systemic endeavour embedded in multi-methodology and reflection-in-practice. The article addresses the purpose, background and principles of systemic planning, and exemplifies the SCOPE process with reference to the Øresund Fixed Link.

Setting up the Decision Support

This chapter on “Setting up the decision support” sets focus upon applying different modes of enquiry based on the findings in the previous chapter. Next the scoping of strategic choices is addressed and afterwards the assessment of consequences and risks is treated. Emphasis is placed on describing the interrelatedness of scoping and assessment in the process of establishing adequate decision support for complex strategic choices. Based on the specific purposes of scoping and assessment a number of both hard and soft methods are treated. This serves to describe how the individual methodologies in the systemic toolbox can provide particular types of decision support in a systemic learning process. This chapter ends with an outline of what can be seen to characterise a suggested concept of choice intelligence and the possible benefits of teamwork and the use of methods in combination referred to as multimethodology.

Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

AbstractThis paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR) are obtained. Recent research has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the CBA, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to address these inaccuracies in a so-called Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo s...

The Systemic Toolbox

With the theory outline of systemic planning (SP) presented in the previous chapters, this chapter, “The systemic toolbox”, addresses the more methodical and practical aspects of systemic planning. Specifically a number of useful operations research (OR) methods and techniques are introduced as a kind of long list for methods of possible relevance for SP. These are categorised and presented in the form of three ‘waves’, with each new wave—we are still in the third wave since the early 1990s—representing an important new approach direction. From the long list of OR methods seven hard and seven soft methods are identified, which are seen to provide a suitable ‘method arsenal’ referred to as the systemic toolbox in the subsequent practical adaptation of systemic planning.

Introduction: Complexity as a Challenge

This chapter, “Complexity as a challenge”, primarily aims at presenting the purpose of systemic planning (SP) and the challenge of strategic decision making in a world that presents itself as complex. Initially systemic planning is set out as the holistic handling of complex planning seeking to include both hard and soft methodology. Next the contents of all the chapters are presented. The chapter ends with taking a first look at complexity by treating what is termed detail, dynamic and preference complexity, which leads to a discussion of different problem types. This provides the background for encircling the possibilities and limitations of systemic planning as a foresight problem handling approach.