Stefan Franzén

Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND Long‐term trends in excess risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes have not been extensively studied in persons with type 1 diabetes or type 2 diabetes. METHODS We included patients registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1998 through 2012 and followed them through 2014. Trends in deaths and cardiovascular events were estimated with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. For each patient, controls who were matched for age, sex, and county were randomly selected from the general population. RESULTS Among patients with type 1 diabetes, absolute changes during the study period in the incidence rates of sentinel outcomes per 10,000 person‐years were as follows: death from any cause, ‐31.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], ‐56.1 to ‐6.7); death from cardiovascular disease, ‐26.0 (95% CI, ‐42.6 to ‐9.4); death from coronary heart disease, ‐21.7 (95% CI, ‐37.1 to ‐6.4); and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease, ‐45.7 (95% CI, ‐71.4 to ‐20.1). Absolute changes per 10,000 person‐years among patients with type 2 diabetes were as follows: death from any cause, ‐69.6 (95% CI, ‐95.9 to ‐43.2); death from cardiovascular disease, ‐110.0 (95% CI, ‐128.9 to ‐91.1); death from coronary heart disease, ‐91.9 (95% CI, ‐108.9 to ‐75.0); and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease, ‐203.6 (95% CI, ‐230.9 to ‐176.3). Patients with type 1 diabetes had roughly 40% greater reduction in cardiovascular outcomes than controls, and patients with type 2 diabetes had roughly 20% greater reduction than controls. Reductions in fatal outcomes were similar in patients with type 1 diabetes and controls, whereas patients with type 2 diabetes had smaller reductions in fatal outcomes than controls. CONCLUSIONS In Sweden from 1998 through 2014, mortality and the incidence of cardiovascular outcomes declined substantially among persons with diabetes, although fatal outcomes declined less among those with type 2 diabetes than among controls. (Funded by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and others.)

Lead time associated with screening for prostate cancer

Screening serum levels of prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) is now a major strategy for early detection of prostate cancer (PC). Quantification of the lead time thus obtained is important both for understanding the development of PC and for evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of widespread screening. In our study, 1,233 randomly selected men living in Stockholm in 1988 were invited to participate in an early detection (ED) program, in which suspicious findings provided by digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasonography (TRUS) and/or a PSA value ≥10.0 ng/mL were followed up by biopsy. The cumulative incidence (Kaplan‐Meier) of PC in the 946 participants (ED) during 12 years of follow‐up was compared to that of an age‐matched, randomly selected reference population (RP) of 657 men for whom PSA values (from frozen serum samples) could also be obtained. The PC incidence in men in the RP with PSA values ≥3.0 ng/mL reached the corresponding level for the ED group after 10.6 years (the “catch‐up” point). After 12 years of follow‐up, the estimated median lead time for men with PSA values in this interval was 4.5 years in the ED population, compared to 7.8 years in the RP. With 20 years of follow‐up, the estimated median lead time of the RP was enhanced to 10.7 years. The lead time in connection with PC was influenced by the initial PSA level (although with large variations), length of follow‐up and sensitivity of the ED procedure employed. The ED program described here was not associated with major overdetection.

Cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes after bariatric surgery in Sweden: a nationwide, matched, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND In patients with diabetes and obesity specifically, no studies have examined mortality after bariatric surgery. We did a nationwide study in Sweden to examine risks of cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients with obesity and diabetes who had undergone bariatric surgery (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass [RYGB]). METHODS In this nationwide, matched, observational cohort study, we merged data for patients who had undergone RYGB registered in the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry with other national databases, and identified matched controls (on the basis of sex, age, BMI, and calendar time [year]) who had not undergone bariatric surgery from the National Diabetes Registry. We assessed risks of cardiovascular disease and death using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model and other methods to examine the treatment effect while accounting for residual confounding. Primary outcomes were total mortality, cardiovascular death, and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2014, we obtained data for 6132 patients who had undergone RYGB and 6132 control patients who had not. Median follow-up was 3·5 years (IQR 2·1-4·7). We noted a 58% relative risk reduction (hazard ratio [HR] 0·42, 95% CI 0·30-0·57; p<0·0001) in overall mortality in the RYGB group compared with the controls. The risk of fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction was 49% lower (HR 0·51, 0·29-0·91; p=0·021) and that of cardiovascular death was 59% lower (0·41, 0·19-0·90; p=0·026) in the RYGB group than in the control group. 5 year absolute risks of death were 1·8% (95% CI 1·5-2·2) in the RYGB group and 5·8% (5·0-6·8) in the control group. INTERPRETATION Our findings provide support for the benefits of RYGB surgery for patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes. The causes of these beneficial effects may be the weight reduction per se, changes in physiology and metabolism, improved care and treatment, improvements in lifestyle and risk factors, or combinations of these factors. FUNDING Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and Region Västra Götaland.

The performance of a new scoring system for colposcopy in detecting high‐grade dysplasia in the uterine cervix

Objective.  To construct a simple scoring system for colposcopic examination that can facilitate education of colposcopists and increase the accuracy of evaluation.

Blood pressure and complications in individuals with type 2 diabetes and no previous cardiovascular disease: national population based cohort study.

Objectives To compare the risk associated with systolic blood pressure that meets current recommendations (that is, below 140 mm Hg) with the risk associated with lower levels in patients who have type 2 diabetes and no previous cardiovascular disease. Design Population based cohort study with nationwide clinical registries, 2006-12. The mean follow-up was 5.0 years. Setting 861 Swedish primary care units and hospital outpatient clinics. Participants 187 106 patients registered in the Swedish national diabetes register who had had type 2 diabetes for at least a year, age 75 or younger, and with no previous cardiovascular or other major disease. Main outcome measures Clinical events were obtained from the hospital discharge and death registers with respect to acute myocardial infarction, stroke, a composite of acute myocardial infarction and stroke (cardiovascular disease), coronary heart disease, heart failure, and total mortality. Hazard ratios were estimated for different levels of baseline systolic blood pressure with clinical characteristics and drug prescription data as covariates. Results The group with the lowest systolic blood pressure (110-119 mm Hg) had a significantly lower risk of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 0.76, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.91; P=0.003), total acute myocardial infarction (0.85, 0.72 to 0.99; P=0.04), non-fatal cardiovascular disease (0.82, 0.72 to 0.93; P=0.002), total cardiovascular disease (0.88, 0.79 to 0.99; P=0.04), and non-fatal coronary heart disease (0.88, 0.78 to 0.99; P=0.03) compared with the reference group (130-139 mm Hg). There was no indication of a J shaped relation between systolic blood pressure and the endpoints, with the exception of heart failure and total mortality. Conclusions Lower systolic blood pressure than currently recommended is associated with significantly lower risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. The association between low blood pressure and increased mortality could be due to concomitant disease rather than antihypertensive treatment.

Cardiovascular safety of glucose-lowering agents as add-on medication to metformin treatment in type 2 diabetes: report from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.

To investigate the relative safety of various glucose‐lowering agents as add‐on medication to metformin in type 2 diabetes in an observational study linking five national health registers.

Range of Risk Factor Levels: Control, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

Background: Individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) have a high risk of cardiovascular complications, but it is unknown to what extent fulfilling all cardiovascular treatment goals is associated with residual risk of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in those with T1DM compared with the general population. Methods: We included all patients ≥18 years of age with T1DM who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2014, a total of 33 333 patients, each matched for age and sex with 5 controls without diabetes mellitus randomly selected from the population. Patients with T1DM were categorized according to number of risk factors not at target: glycohemoglobin, blood pressure, albuminuria, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Risk of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure hospitalization, and stroke was examined in relation to the number of risk factors at target. Results: The mean follow-up was 10.4 years in the diabetes group. Overall, 2074 of 33 333 patients with diabetes mellitus and 4141 of 166 529 controls died. Risk for all outcomes increased stepwise for each additional risk factor not at target. Adjusted hazard ratios for patients achieving all risk factor targets compared with controls were 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93–1.85) for all-cause mortality, 1.82 (95% CI, 1.15–2.88) for acute myocardial infarction, 1.97 (95% CI, 1.04–3.73) for heart failure hospitalization, and 1.17 (95% CI, 0.51–2.68) for stroke. The hazard ratio for patients versus controls with none of the risk factors meeting target was 7.33 (95% CI, 5.08–10.57) for all-cause mortality, 12.34 (95% CI, 7.91–19.48) for acute myocardial infarction, 15.09 (95% CI, 9.87–23.09) for heart failure hospitalization, and 12.02 (95% CI, 7.66–18.85) for stroke. Conclusions: A steep-graded association exists between decreasing number of cardiovascular risk factors at target and major adverse cardiovascular outcomes among patients with T1DM. However, risks for all outcomes were numerically higher for patients with T1DM compared with controls, even when all risk factors were at target, with risk for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure hospitalization statistically significantly higher.

Association Between Use of Lipid-Lowering Therapy and Cardiovascular Diseases and Death in Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effect of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) in primary prevention on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death in type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR) to perform a propensity score–based study. Propensity scores for treatment with LLT were calculated from 32 baseline clinical and socioeconomic variables. The propensity score was used to estimate the effect of LLT in the overall cohort (by stratification). We estimated risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in individuals with and without LLT using Cox regression. A total of 24,230 individuals included in 2006–2008 NDR with type 1 diabetes without a history of CVD were followed until 31 December 2012; 18,843 were untreated and 5,387 treated with LLT (97% statins). The mean follow-up was 6.0 years. RESULTS The propensity score allowed balancing of all 32 covariates, with no differences between treated and untreated after accounting for propensity score. Hazard ratios (HRs) for treated versus untreated were as follows: cardiovascular death 0.60 (95% CI 0.50–0.72), all-cause death 0.56 (0.48–0.64), fatal/nonfatal stroke 0.56 (0.46–0.70), fatal/nonfatal acute myocardial infarction 0.78 (0.66–0.92), fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease 0.85 (0.74–0.97), and fatal/nonfatal CVD 0.77 (0.69–0.87). CONCLUSIONS This observational study shows that LLT is associated with 22–44% reduction in the risk of CVD and cardiovascular death among individuals with type 1 diabetes without history of CVD and underlines the importance of primary prevention with LLT to reduce cardiovascular risk in type 1 diabetes.

Excess mortality and cardiovascular disease in young adults with type 1 diabetes in relation to age at onset: a nationwide, register-based cohort study

BACKGROUND People with type 1 diabetes are at elevated risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease, yet current guidelines do not consider age of onset as an important risk stratifier. We aimed to examine how age at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes relates to excess mortality and cardiovascular risk. METHODS We did a nationwide, register-based cohort study of individuals with type 1 diabetes in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and matched controls from the general population. We included patients with at least one registration between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2012. Using Cox regression, and with adjustment for diabetes duration, we estimated the excess risk of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular disease (a composite of acute myocardial infarction and stroke), coronary heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. Individuals with type 1 diabetes were categorised into five groups, according to age at diagnosis: 0-10 years, 11-15 years, 16-20 years, 21-25 years, and 26-30 years. FINDINGS 27 195 individuals with type 1 diabetes and 135 178 matched controls were selected for this study. 959 individuals with type 1 diabetes and 1501 controls died during follow-up (median follow-up was 10 years). Patients who developed type 1 diabetes at 0-10 years of age had hazard ratios of 4·11 (95% CI 3·24-5·22) for all-cause mortality, 7·38 (3·65-14·94) for cardiovascular mortality, 3·96 (3·06-5·11) for non-cardiovascular mortality, 11·44 (7·95-16·44) for cardiovascular disease, 30·50 (19·98-46·57) for coronary heart disease, 30·95 (17·59-54·45) for acute myocardial infarction, 6·45 (4·04-10·31) for stroke, 12·90 (7·39-22·51) for heart failure, and 1·17 (0·62-2·20) for atrial fibrillation. Corresponding hazard ratios for individuals who developed type 1 diabetes aged 26-30 years were 2·83 (95% CI 2·38-3·37) for all-cause mortality, 3·64 (2·34-5·66) for cardiovascular mortality, 2·78 (2·29-3·38) for non-cardiovascular mortality, 3·85 (3·05-4·87) for cardiovascular disease, 6·08 (4·71-7·84) for coronary heart disease, 5·77 (4·08-8·16) for acute myocardial infarction, 3·22 (2·35-4·42) for stroke, 5·07 (3·55-7·22) for heart failure, and 1·18 (0·79-1·77) for atrial fibrillation; hence the excess risk differed by up to five times across the diagnosis age groups. The highest overall incidence rate, noted for all-cause mortality, was 1·9 (95% CI 1·71-2·11) per 100 000 person-years for people with type 1 diabetes. Development of type 1 diabetes before 10 years of age resulted in a loss of 17·7 life-years (95% CI 14·5-20·4) for women and 14·2 life-years (12·1-18·2) for men. INTERPRETATION Age at onset of type 1 diabetes is an important determinant of survival, as well as all cardiovascular outcomes, with highest excess risk in women. Greater focus on cardioprotection might be warranted in people with early-onset type 1 diabetes. FUNDING Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation.

Risk of future microvascular and macrovascular disease in people with Type 1 diabetes of very long duration : A national study with 10-year follow-up

To describe factors associated with prevalence or absence of microvascular and macrovascular complications in people with Type 1 diabetes of very long duration and to investigate the risk factors associated with the incidence of such complications.