Stefania Villa

Financial Intermediaries in an Estimated DSGE Model for the United Kingdom

Gertler and Karadi combined financial intermediation and credit policy in a DSGE framework. We estimate their model with UK data using Bayesian techniques. To validate the fit, we evaluate the model’s empirical properties. Then we analyse the transmission mechanism of the shocks, set to produce a downturn. Finally, we examine the empirical importance of nominal, real and financial frictions and of different shocks. We find that banking friction seems to play an important role in explaining the UK business cycle. Moreover, the banking sector shock seems to explain about half of the fall in real GDP in the recent crisis. A credit supply shock seems to account for most of the weakness in bank lending.

Growth in Transition Countries

This paper analyses the impact of the speed of transition reforms on economic growth in transition countries in the context of the debate big-bang versus gradualist approach. It builds a new indicator for the speed of transition reforms based on a three-way principal component analysis. It shows that: (i) the speed of transition reforms Granger-causes economic growth and there is no reverse causation; (ii) the impact of contemporaneous speed of transition reforms on economic growth is negative but becomes positive in the longer horizon; and (iii) other factors, such as initial conditions and macroeconomic stabilization program, also drive economic growth. While the first two results are robust to different estimators, the impact of control variables depends on the econometric specification.

Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Banking Intermediation: Evidence from the US

This paper examines the forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without banking intermediation for the US economy. Over the forecast period 2001-2013, the model augmented with a banking sector leads to an improvement of point and density forecasts for inflation and the short term interest rate, while the better forecast for output depends on the forecasting horizon/period. To interpret this finding it is crucial to take into account parameters instabilities showed by a recursive-window estimation. Moreover, rolling estimates of point forecasts show that a banking sector helps improving the forecasting performance of output and inflation in the recent period.

Redistributive effects and labour market dynamics

We propose and estimate, using Bayesian techniques, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model featuring search and matching frictions with redistributive productivity shocks – which account for fluctuations in the distribution of income across factors of production. We first find supporting evidence that the model is able to replicate cyclical properties of labour market variables. We then disentangle two endogenous sources of labour market amplification: (i) deep habits and (ii) the replacement ratio. The latter appears to be a powerful endogenous amplification mechanism given the shock structure of the model. As far as the exogenous amplification is concerned, labour market variability can be largely explained by redistributive innovations. Finally, contrary to Total Factor Productivity shocks, redistributive shocks increase total hours.

LEANING AGAINST WINDY BANK LENDING: LEANING AGAINST WINDY BANK LENDING

Using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with banking, this paper first provides evidence that monetary policy reacted to bank loan growth in the US during the Great Moderation. It then shows that the optimized simple interest-rate rule features virtually no response to the growth of bank credit. However, the welfare loss associated to the empirical responsiveness is small. The sources of business cycle fluctuations are crucial in determining whether a “leaning-against-the-wind” policy is optimal or not. In fact, the predominant role of supply shocks in the model gives rise to a trade-off between inflation and financial stabilization.

Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships

This paper studies how fiscal policy affects loan market conditions in the US. First, itconducts a Structural Vector-Autoregression analysis showing that the bank spread respondsnegatively to an expansionary government spending shock, while lending increases. Second,it illustrates that these results are mimicked by a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibriummodel where the bank spread is endogenized via the inclusion of a banking sector exploitinglending relationships. Third, it shows that lending relationships represent a friction thatgenerates a financial accelerator effect in the transmission of the fiscal shock.