Roberto Dell'Anno

Shadow economy and unemployment rate in USA: is there a structural relationship? An empirical analysis

This article aims to estimate the size of the US shadow economy (SE) using a structural equation approach and to evaluate if a structural relationship exists between the SE and the unemployment rate (UR) in the United States. The size of the SE is estimated to be decreasing over the last two decades. We corroborate the existence of a structural relationship between the SE and the UR by using a simple theoretical model. Furthermore, we extend the Okuns law to estimate the structural relationship between growth rate of official GDP, SE and UR. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between the SE and the UR.

An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey

Purpose: The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach and to analyze the relationship between UE and recorded GDP. Design/methodology/approach: we propose to measure UE by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda- Yamamoto causality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP. Findings: This research provides fresh evidence on the size of the UE to the recorded GDP in Turkey which ranges from 10.7% to 18.9% over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality. Research limitations/implications: Measures of the UE, and particularly those based on monetary approaches, have been criticized on several accounts, including their lack of robustness and weak theoretical foundations (e.g. the velocity of money in the recorded economy and in the UE is the same). Practical implications: The analysis suggests that the UE is pro-cyclical with respect to the recorded GDP. It suggests that the phenomenon of UE is more dangerous when the economy is in expensive phase. Hence, during a positive business cycle it is clearly desirable for government the anti-UE controls should be more effective. Originality/value: The ARDL approach to estimating the size of UE eliminates criticism that the previous currency demand estimations are based on partial adjustment models. Therefore, our econometric selected cointegration methodology and causality test is an improvement over the existing studies.

Growth in Transition Countries

This paper analyses the impact of the speed of transition reforms on economic growth in transition countries in the context of the debate big-bang versus gradualist approach. It builds a new indicator for the speed of transition reforms based on a three-way principal component analysis. It shows that: (i) the speed of transition reforms Granger-causes economic growth and there is no reverse causation; (ii) the impact of contemporaneous speed of transition reforms on economic growth is negative but becomes positive in the longer horizon; and (iii) other factors, such as initial conditions and macroeconomic stabilization program, also drive economic growth. While the first two results are robust to different estimators, the impact of control variables depends on the econometric specification.

The Relevance of the Theory of Fiscal Illusion. The Case of the Italian Tax System

This work analyses the phenomenon of fiscal illusion (Puviani, 1903) in the context of the Italian tax system. Financial (or fiscal) illusion refers to mechanisms which cause a cognitive alteration on the part of the taxpayer regarding the evaluation of the costs and benefits of public policies. Puviani (1903) was the first to classify the different types of financial illusions. He highlighted the main strategies used to hide the real costs of financing public goods and services through taxes (illusions on revenue) or to overestimate their usefulness (illusions on expenditure). The main conclusions of the work are that: (i) from a methodological point of view, there is a connection between Puviani’s theory of fiscal illusion and some of the assumptions of the behavioral approach and (ii) from an operational point of view, it is a useful tool to understand the motives that could have inspired several recent taxes and legislative measures within the Italian tax system. These results support the relevance of Puviani’s theory to the contemporary theory and practice of public finance.

Un’analisi dell’efficienza di scala e di costo del sistema sanitario pugliese

This paper deals with the empirical research of cost efficiency and technological characteristics of the Health Service in Puglia over the period from 2004 to 2007. A review on the stochastic frontier model and the most recent analyses of the efficiency in the Italian regional health services is provided. We propose an empirical analysis base on a Translog stochastic cost frontier by the Battese and Coelli (1992) approach. According to the empirical results, the efficiency of Health service in Puglia has reduced during the period from 2004 to 2007. We also find evidence of relevant scale economies not exploited by producers, which decrease with the number of DRG points.

Certainty equivalent citation: generalized classes of citation indexes

Drawing from the existing literature on risk and inequality measurement, we implement the notion of “certainty equivalent citation” in order (i) to generalize most of the h-type citation indexes (h-, g-,

Inequality and informality in transition and emerging countries

\tilde{g},

The shadow economy of Italy and other OECD countries: what do we know?

t-, f-, w-index), and (ii) to highlight the centrality of the decision-maker’s preferences on distributive aspects (concentration aversion) for the ranking of citation profiles. In order to highlight the sensitivity of citation orderings with respect to concentration aversion, an application to both simulated and real citation profiles is presented.