Stefano Armenia

A System Dynamics Approach to the Paper Dematerialization Process in the Italian Public Administration

The dematerialization problem is still young, it hasn’t been well analyzed yet and its definition is nearly absent in the literature. This paper concentrates on the problem with a methodological approach which will try to describe the underlying structures, the overall system behaviours, processes and stakeholders. We will give an interpretation of the not always linear relationships and of the feedback loops among the involved variables, also considering those soft interactions which typically arise in those complex systems connected with social environments and which often are not properly taken into account or even neglected. We will thus formalize a dynamical hypothesis so that, with a systemic approach, we can design a system dynamics model that may help us in validating those hypothesis and in building a useful decision support system, in order to provide the Public Administration Management with the chance to make policy analysis and strategic support concerning the major issues related to the dematerialization process.

Paving the way for future research in ICT for governance and policy modelling

In light of the contemporary societal challenges and the current technological trends that have revolutionized collaboration and creativity, ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling has recently emerged to achieve a better, participative, evidence-based and timely governance. Bringing together two separate worlds, i.e. the mathematical and complex systems background of Policy Modelling with the service provision, participation and open data aspects in Governance, it has recently gathered significant attention by researchers and practitioners. This paper presents the grand challenges that will inspire research in the domain in the next years, as well as the track from the state of play study, the visionary scenarios building and the gap analysis that has eventually led to their recognition. The specific research challenges target at achieving a collaborative, model-based governance with a strong scientific basis, empowered with data in order to reach collective intelligence, and providing public services as a utility.

A system dynamics framework for modeling critical infrastructure resilience

In recent years, awareness of the potential consequences associated with a major disruption to the critical infrastructure has grown among public and private entities. Indeed, traditional and emerging threats endanger service continuity and, by extension, the normal functioning of modern society. This paper presents an approach for modeling the effects of critical infrastructure failures as a result of unexpected events. The transportation, energy and telecommunications infrastructures are modeled using a system dynamics approach. The work constitutes a component of the CRISADMIN Project that is focused on developing a tool to evaluate the impacts of critical events. The ultimate objective of the project is to provide decision makers with a sophisticated tool to help them mitigate negative effects in emergency situations. The prototype tool described in this paper leverages case studies of terrorist attacks and floods that have occurred in Europe.

Studying pension systems and retirement age: a simple system dynamics model for a complex issue

One of the most challenging issues that policy makers will face in the near future is population ageing and its consequences in pension systems. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of the increase in the retirement age on the pension scheme of Greece, by also taking into account social unrest that can inhibit the policy implementation. A model of Greeces pension scheme was modelled, using the methodology of system dynamics. The results showed that the increase in retirement age is not as effective as regarded in real world and under appropriate conditions, the pension scheme could be sustainable without raising the retirement age.

Individual Behavior as a Defense in the “War on Cyberterror”: A System Dynamics Approach

ABSTRACT The problem of cyberterrorism, despite its contested nature, is an important area of research. Scholars agree that the most dangerous targets for such attacks are critical infrastructure and organizations that are vital to society due to their interconnectedness to the modern world and their increasing reliance on the cyber domain for their operations. Thus, their security and protection against cyberterrorism is of elevated importance. Given the lack of documented cases of cyberterrorism, the purpose of this article is to simulate the threat of a terrorist act on a critical infrastructure, using a computer virus and to investigate how the individual behavior of employees affects security.

Critical Events and Critical Infrastructures: A System Dynamics Approach

Critical events like natural disasters or terrorist attacks have evolved to a realistic concern over the last decade. Anticipation and timely decision-making are fundamental to ensure positive outcomes, stability and safety especially with concern to Critical Infrastructure. The purpose of this paper is to promote a new framework for efficient and effective crisis management in the area of Critical Infrastructures. The main effort of the project has been to use simulation models with the purpose of investigating, reproducing and representing the interdependencies among CIs while stressed by critical events. The results of the simulation demonstrated that preparation in cases like a flooding, can prove extremely useful and make an extreme situation more manageable. Finally, elements of the human behaviour, which are the most uncertain and difficult to simulate, are the most important and can make the difference between a disaster and a manageable situation.

Nobody deserves this fate: the vicious cycle of low human development in Guinea-Bissau

Purpose This paper aims to understand and explore the causal relationship of elements responsible for the macro vicious cycle of poverty in Guinea-Bissau, and discuss policies to break it. Design/methodology/approach The methodology used in this study is based on the system dynamics simulation paradigm. Findings Breaking the Guinean poverty cycle requires a multifaceted approach involving more resources and the building of several national capabilities. Traditional approaches tend to fail. Research limitations/implications Limitations come from the level of abstraction used in the model, which does not detail the processes for building specific capabilities and their interrelationships, and the necessary exclusion of variables that may have an impact in the process. Considering implications, the study models the evolution of human development index (HDI) in Guinea-Bissau, linking it to the economy and political sectors and allowing the simulation of different scenarios. Practical implications The study presents a critical stance towards common recommendations from international agencies, and it provides a blueprint for development of more effective public policies. Social implications Overcoming the poverty trap in sub-Saharan countries remains a challenge for the international community. The study aims at helping in the process of integrating different frameworks into a compact and manageable model. Originality/value The study contributes to the system dynamics and economic development literatures by presenting an integrative model of human development in Guinea-Bissau. There is no study in the system dynamics literature modelling the relationship of HDI to economy and political sectors while different and contradictory points of view characterize the economics literature, leaving well-meaning public officials in Guinea-Bissau at a loss of mental models to tackle the poverty trap in the country.

A system dynamics simulation tool for the management of extreme events in urban transportation systems

The objective of the paper is to present a simulation-based interactive environment that could help decision-makers to evaluate the direct, indirect, social and economic effects of a public transportation system closedown. The methodology that was used for the development of the simulator is system dynamics, because it is used to understand how a systems behaviour emerges and how insights can be gained into how policy changes might alter the very same behaviour. The simulator is based on two simulation models that investigate the importance of an urban transportation system in two different time frameworks. The main results demonstrate that the behaviour of the passengers affects the operation of the transportation system and consequently, the economic activity of the entire urban environment. Finally, the simulator and the tested policies demonstrated that the improvement of transportation drives the economic development of an urban environment.

A System Dynamics Model to Identify and Measure the Paper Digitization Advantages in Public Administration

This study provides a System Dynamics model built to identify the benefits arising from the process of digitization in the Italian Public Administration. The paper describes the process in terms of the causal relationships between systemic variables that define the underlying structure of the problem. The analysis focuses on the interaction between the “outer world” of the citizens and the “inner world” of the Italian Administrations, by designing a causal loop diagram and a stock and flow simulation model. The systemic approach allows considering many crucial aspects for the digitization problem and provides a rich analysis that shows how those obstacles brought forward by social and psychological factors may become a great obstacle to organizational change.