Stein Hallan

Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts: a collaborative meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Substantial controversy surrounds the use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria to define chronic kidney disease and assign its stages. We undertook a meta-analysis to assess the independent and combined associations of eGFR and albuminuria with mortality. METHODS In this collaborative meta-analysis of general population cohorts, we pooled standardised data for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality from studies containing at least 1000 participants and baseline information about eGFR and urine albumin concentrations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with eGFR and albuminuria, adjusted for potential confounders. FINDINGS The analysis included 105,872 participants (730,577 person-years) from 14 studies with urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) measurements and 1,128,310 participants (4,732,110 person-years) from seven studies with urine protein dipstick measurements. In studies with ACR measurements, risk of mortality was unrelated to eGFR between 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 105 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and increased at lower eGFRs. Compared with eGFR 95 mL/min/1.73 m(2), adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.18 (95% CI 1.05-1.32) for eGFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), 1.57 (1.39-1.78) for 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and 3.14 (2.39-4.13) for 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2). ACR was associated with risk of mortality linearly on the log-log scale without threshold effects. Compared with ACR 0.6 mg/mmol, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.20 (1.15-1.26) for ACR 1.1 mg/mmol, 1.63 (1.50-1.77) for 3.4 mg/mmol, and 2.22 (1.97-2.51) for 33.9 mg/mmol. eGFR and ACR were multiplicatively associated with risk of mortality without evidence of interaction. Similar findings were recorded for cardiovascular mortality and in studies with dipstick measurements. INTERPRETATION eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and ACR 1.1 mg/mmol (10 mg/g) or more are independent predictors of mortality risk in the general population. This study provides quantitative data for use of both kidney measures for risk assessment and definition and staging of chronic kidney disease. FUNDING Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), US National Kidney Foundation, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.Background A comprehensive evaluation of the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with mortality is required for assessment of the impact of kidney function on risk in the general population, with implications for improving the definition and staging of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

International Comparison of the Relationship of Chronic Kidney Disease Prevalence and ESRD Risk

ESRD incidence is much lower in Europe compared with the United States. This study investigated whether this reflects a difference in the prevalence of earlier stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) or other mechanisms. CKD prevalence in Norway was estimated from the population-based Health Survey of Nord-Trondelag County (HUNT II), which included 65,181 adults in 1995 through 1997 (participation rate 70.4%). Data were analyzed using the same methods as two US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys in 1988 through 1994 (n = 15,488) and 1999 through 2000 (n = 4101). The primary analysis used gender-specific cutoffs in estimating persistent albuminuria for CKD stages 1 and 2. ESRD rates and other relevant data were extracted from national registries. Total CKD prevalence in Norway was 10.2% (SE 0.5): CKD stage 1 (GFR >90 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and albuminuria), 2.7% (SE 0.3); stage 2 (GFR 60 to 89 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and albuminuria), 3.2% (SE 0.4); stage 3 (GFR 30 to 59 ml/min per 1.73 m2), 4.2% (SE 0.1); and stage 4 (GFR 15 to 29 ml/min per 1.73 m2), 0.2% (SE 0.01). This closely approximates reported US CKD prevalence (11.0% in 1988 through 1994 and 11.7% in 1999 through 2000). The relative risk for progression from CKD stages 3 or 4 to ESRD in US white patients compared with Norwegian patients was 2.5. This was only modestly modified by adjustment for age, gender, and diabetes. Age and GFR at start of dialysis were similar, hypertension and cardiovascular mortality in the populations were comparable, but US white patients were referred later to a nephrologist and had higher prevalence of obesity and diabetes. In conclusion, CKD prevalence in Norway was similar to that in the United States, suggesting that lower progression to ESRD rather than a smaller pool of individuals at risk accounts for the lower incidence of ESRD in Norway.

Long-term risks for kidney donors

Previous studies have suggested that living kidney donors maintain long-term renal function and experience no increase in cardiovascular or all-cause mortality. However, most analyses have included control groups less healthy than the living donor population and have had relatively short follow-up periods. Here we compared long-term renal function and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in living kidney donors compared with a control group of individuals who would have been eligible for donation. All-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was identified in 1901 individuals who donated a kidney during 1963 through 2007 with a median follow-up of 15.1 years. A control group of 32,621 potentially eligible kidney donors was selected, with a median follow-up of 24.9 years. Hazard ratio for all-cause death was significantly increased to 1.30 (95% confidence interval 1.11-1.52) for donors compared with controls. There was a significant corresponding increase in cardiovascular death to 1.40 (1.03-1.91), while the risk of ESRD was greatly and significantly increased to 11.38 (4.37-29.6). The overall incidence of ESRD among donors was 302 cases per million and might have been influenced by hereditary factors. Immunological renal disease was the cause of ESRD in the donors. Thus, kidney donors are at increased long-term risk for ESRD, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality compared with a control group of non-donors who would have been eligible for donation.

Screening strategies for chronic kidney disease in the general population: follow-up of cross sectional health survey

Objective To find an effective screening strategy for detecting patients with chronic kidney disease and to describe the natural course of the disease. Design Eight year follow-up of a cross sectional health survey (the HUNT II study). Setting Nord-Tr�ndelag County, Norway Participants 65�604 people (70.6 % of all adults aged ≥20 in the county). Main outcome measures Incident end stage renal disease (ESRD) and cardiovascular mortality monitored by individual linkage to central registries. Results 3069/65 604 (4.7%) people had chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73 m2), so we would need to screen 20.6 people (95% confidence interval 20.0 to 21.2) to identify one case. Restriction of screening to those with hypertension, diabetes, or age >55 would identify 93.2% (92.4% to 94.0%) of patients with chronic kidney disease, with a number needed to screen of 8.7 (8.5 to 9.0). Restriction of screening according to guidelines of the United States kidney disease outcomes quality initiative (US KDOQI) gave similar results, but restriction according to the United Kingdoms chronic kidney disease guidelines detected only 60.9% (59.1% to 62.8%) of cases. Screening only people with previously known diabetes or hypertension detected 44.2% (42.7% to 45.7%) of all cases, with a number needed to screen of six. During the eight year follow-up only 38 of the 3069 people with chronic kidney disease progressed to end stage renal disease, and the risk was especially low in people without diabetes or hypertension, women, and those aged ≥70 or with a glomerular filtration rate 45-59 ml/min/1.73 m2 at screening. In contrast, there was a high cardiovascular mortality: 3.5, 7.4, and 10.1 deaths per 100 person years among people with a glomerular filtration rate 45-59, 30-44, and <30 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Conclusion Screening people with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or age >55 was the most effective strategy to detect patients with chronic kidney disease, but the risk of end stage renal disease among those detected was low.

Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality in the US Population

Decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria are used in combination to define chronic kidney disease, but their separate and combined effects on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality have not been studied in the general population. The linked mortality file of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey includes data from 13 years of follow-up (1988-2000) for 14,586 US adults. The authors estimated GFR from standardized serum creatinine levels. Albuminuria was defined by the urinary albumin:creatinine ratio. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were adjusted for major cardiovascular disease risk factors and C-reactive protein. Lower estimated GFR was associated with higher risks of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality overall and within every albuminuria category. Likewise, increasing albuminuria was associated with higher risk of estimated GFR overall and within every category. When estimated GFR and albuminuria were examined simultaneously, a 10-ml/minute/1.73 m(2) lower estimated GFR (among persons with estimated GFR <60 ml/minute/1.73 m(2)) was associated with an IRR of 1.29 (95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.55) for cardiovascular mortality and a doubling of albuminuria was associated with an IRR of 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.08) for cardiovascular mortality. The authors conclude that moderately decreased estimated GFR and albuminuria independently predict cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the general population. These data support recent recommendations defining chronic kidney disease and stratifying subsequent risks based on both decreased GFR and albuminuria.

Low Birth Weight Increases Risk for End-Stage Renal Disease

Case-control studies have shown an association between low birth weight and risk for renal failure. The Medical Birth Registry of Norway, which comprises data on all births in Norway since 1967, and the Norwegian Renal Registry, which comprises data on all patients who have developed ESRD in Norway since 1980, were used to examine whether birth-related variables were associated with risk for ESRD. Of the 2,183,317 children born between 1967 and 2004, 526 were found in the ESRD registry. Compared with birth weight in the 10th to 90th percentiles, births <10th percentile had a relative risk (RR) for ESRD of 1.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 2.2; P < 0.001). Births with a weight for gestational age <10th percentile had an RR of 1.5 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 1.9; P = 0.002). These associations were virtually identical after adjustment for birth-related confounders such as congenital malformations, multiple delivery, maternal age at birth, and maternal preeclampsia. Low birth weight was more strongly associated with development of ESRD during the first 14 years of life than after age 15. Low birth weight and low birth weight for gestational age were similarly associated with multiple causes of ESRD. In conclusion, in this cohort study with a maximum follow-up of 38 years, low birth weight and intrauterine growth restriction were associated with increased risk for ESRD.

Smoking: A Risk Factor for Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease and for Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Renal Patients—Absence of Evidence or Evidence of Absence?

Although it is beyond any doubt that smoking is the number one preventable cause of death in most countries, smoking as an independent progression factor in renal disease has been questioned against the background of evidence-based criteria. This is because information from large, randomized, prospective studies that investigate the effects of smoking on renal function in healthy individuals as well as in patients with primary or secondary renal disease are lacking. Since 2003, a substantial number of clinical and experimental data concerning the adverse renal effects of smoking have been published, including large, prospective, population-based, observational studies. These more recent data together with evidence from experimental studies clearly indicate that smoking is a relevant risk factor, conferring a substantial increase in risk for renal function deterioration. This review summarizes the present knowledge about the renal risks of smoking as well as the increased cardiovascular risk caused by smoking in patients with chronic kidney disease. The conclusion is that smoking is an important renal risk factor, and nephrologists have to invest more efforts to motivate patients to stop smoking.

CKD Prevalence Varies across the European General Population

CKD prevalence estimation is central to CKD management and prevention planning at the population level. This study estimated CKD prevalence in the European adult general population and investigated international variation in CKD prevalence by age, sex, and presence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. We collected data from 19 general-population studies from 13 European countries. CKD stages 1-5 was defined as eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2), as calculated by the CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration equation, or albuminuria >30 mg/g, and CKD stages 3-5 was defined as eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) CKD prevalence was age- and sex-standardized to the population of the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU27). We found considerable differences in both CKD stages 1-5 and CKD stages 3-5 prevalence across European study populations. The adjusted CKD stages 1-5 prevalence varied between 3.31% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 3.30% to 3.33%) in Norway and 17.3% (95% CI, 16.5% to 18.1%) in northeast Germany. The adjusted CKD stages 3-5 prevalence varied between 1.0% (95% CI, 0.7% to 1.3%) in central Italy and 5.9% (95% CI, 5.2% to 6.6%) in northeast Germany. The variation in CKD prevalence stratified by diabetes, hypertension, and obesity status followed the same pattern as the overall prevalence. In conclusion, this large-scale attempt to carefully characterize CKD prevalence in Europe identified substantial variation in CKD prevalence that appears to be due to factors other than the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity.

Prehypertension, Obesity, and Risk of Kidney Disease: 20-Year Follow-up of the HUNT I Study in Norway

BACKGROUND The combined effect of blood pressure (BP) and body weight on risk of kidney disease has not been previously studied. To improve risk stratification in prehypertensive individuals (ie, BP, 120 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg), we examined the interaction between BP and body weight on the risk of end-stage renal disease or chronic kidney disease (CKD)-related death. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS 74,986 adults participating in the first Health Study in Nord-Trøndelag (88% participation rate) were linked to the Norwegian Renal Registry and Cause of Death Registry. PREDICTORS BP and body weight were measured by using standard procedures, and other relevant covariates were obtained from an extensive questionnaire. OUTCOME & MEASUREMENTS Hazard ratios for treated end-stage renal disease and CKD-related death were calculated. RESULTS Mean systolic BP and body mass index (BMI) were 136.8 +/- 23.3 (SD) mm Hg and 25.2 +/- 3.9 kg/m(2), whereas 12.9% had treated hypertension at baseline, respectively. During a median follow-up of 21 years (1,345,882 person-years), 507 men (1.4%) and 319 women (0.8%) initiated renal replacement therapy (n = 157) or died of CKD (n = 669). Multiadjusted risk of these kidney outcomes increased continuously with no lower threshold for BP. The risk associated with body weight started to increase from a BMI of 25.0 kg/m(2). In participants with BP less than 120/80 mm Hg, risk did not increase with increasing BMI. In prehypertensive participants, multivariate adjusted hazard ratios in the BMI categories 18.5 to 24.9, 25.0 to 29.9, 30.0 to 34.9, and 35.0 kg/m(2) or greater were 1.21 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67 to 2.17), 1.10 (95% CI, 59 to 2.00), 2.66 (95% CI, 1.28 to 5.53), and 5.94 (95% CI, 1.94 to 18.20) compared with BP less than 120/80 mm Hg and BMI of 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2), respectively (P = 0.02 for trend). Corresponding risks in hypertensive participants were 2.13 (95% CI, 1.23 to 3.70), 2.40 (95% CI, 1.40 to 4.15), 3.32 (95% CI, 1.89 to 5.81), and 5.53 (95% CI, 3.01 to 10.20), respectively (P < 0.001 for trend). LIMITATIONS Baseline creatinine measurements were not available; hence, a secondary analysis was performed that excluded all individuals who experienced outcomes in the 5 years after the study start. CONCLUSIONS Participants with prehypertension are not at increased risk of serious kidney outcomes if BMI is less than 30.0 kg/m(2). However, the risk of kidney disease increases substantially if prehypertension is present in obese participants.

Multinational Assessment of Accuracy of Equations for Predicting Risk of Kidney Failure: A Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014. STUDY SELECTION Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant). RESULTS During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk equations overestimated risk in some non-North American cohorts. Addition of a calibration factor that lowered the baseline risk by 32.9% at 2 years and 16.5% at 5 years improved the calibration in 12 of 15 and 10 of 13 non-North American cohorts at 2 and 5 years, respectively (P = .04 and P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Kidney failure risk equations developed in a Canadian population showed high discrimination and adequate calibration when validated in 31 multinational cohorts. However, in some regions the addition of a calibration factor may be necessary.