Stephan Schmid

Market Prospects of Electric Passenger Vehicles

According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC), “warming of the climate system is unequivocal” and “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations” [1]. In order to limit the expected future increase of temperature to a maximum of 2°C above the preindustrial level and avoid irreversible effects, it is necessary to dramatically decrease GHG emissions from industrialized countries and furthermore to slowdown emissions from developing nations. Transport constitutes a significant portion of carbon dioxide (CO2) and therefore GHG emissions (Fig. 21.1). For example, in the western part of the European Union (EU-15) approximately 24% of an overall 3.15 billion tons (Gt) of CO2 emissions are assigned to transport activities. More than 90% of these emissions are from road transport, with cars and vans making up the largest proportion [2]. Emissions from pollutants are decoupling from a continuously increasing mileage for the most part due to the ongoing introduction of emission after treatment systems for vehicles (Fig. 21.2). In contrast, for CO2 emissions there is no clear reversal of trend observable to date, making it necessary to find solutions for lowering emissions in the future. Electric vehicles are one important pillar of strategies to reduce GHG emissions from transport in the long run. At the local level, they do not emit any pollutants and in combination with electricity from renewable energy sources they allow reaching an emission level close to zero even on a well-to-wheel (WTW) basis. Furthermore, they could provide a way to end dependence on liquid fuels based on crude oil and ensure a drastic reduction of noise emission level especially for inner cities.

Modelling customer choice and market development for future automotive powertrain technologies

The paper introduces an innovative utility-based approach to model customer choice for alternative powertrain technologies within a dynamic scenario tool. The study covers a wide portfolio of different powertrain concepts from conventional combustion engines to advanced hybrid and electric cars. The assessment of their economic and technical attributes builds on a large set of vehicle simulation data and detailed cost models. In contrast to previous cost-based studies the applied methodology maps the observed diversity of user characteristics more realistically. Therefore, the driving behaviour and preferences of car buyers are analysed empirically based on major representative surveys and the resulting distribution functions are integrated in the model. After testing and validation with historic data the model is applied to the German vehicle market and a potential scenario for the prospective composition of the new passenger car fleet by 2030 is presented. The scenario simulation shows that a significant reduction of CO2 emissions is feasible especially by the introduction of plug-in hybrids and range extended electric vehicles. However, the growing technical complexity and the additional effort for efficiency improvements also result in increasing total costs of ownership for the customer.

Recycling, Life-Cycle-Assessment und Rohstoffverfügbarkeit

Leichtbauwerkstoffe sind im Automobilbau seit geraumer Zeit im Einsatz. Im Zuge der verstarkten Bemuhungen, leichte und somit potenziell sparsamere Fahrzeuge zu entwickeln, wird verstarkt uber die Vor- und Nachteile einzelner Leichtbaumaterialien diskutiert. Die Masse eines Fahrzeugs ist ein wichtiger Hebel, Kraftstoffeinsparungen zu erzielen. Ein niedrigerer Kraftstoffverbrauch fuhrt nicht nur zu einer Schonung fossiler Ressourcen, sondern ist auch mit einer Verminderung der Emissionen aus Verbrennungsprozessen verbunden. Die im Automobilleichtbau verwendeten Werkstoffe konnen sich aus okologischer Sicht in ihrer Herstellung und Verwertung masgeblich von herkommlichen Materialien unterscheiden. In der Regel sind Leichtbaumaterialien mit einem hoheren Produktionsaufwand im Vergleich zu konventionellen Materialien wie Stahl verbunden, was zu einer Verschiebung von Emissionen aus der Nutzungsphase in die Herstellungsphase eines Bauteils fuhrt. Um Aussagen uber den okologischen Vorteil eines Leichtbauteils treffen zu konnen, reicht es daher nicht aus, nur die Kraftstoffeinsparung in der Nutzungsphase eines Fahrzeugs zu betrachten. Vielmehr muss eine ganzheitliche Betrachtung uber den gesamten Lebensweg eines Fahrzeugs und der fur Herstellung und Betrieb erforderlichen Vorprozesse erfolgen.

Critical paths and sensitivities towards a zero emission vehicle fleet in Germany a scenario based approach

Based on a detailed analysis on how the availability of charging infrastructure influences the technical suitability of electric vehicles for customer needs, we assess critical paths and probable outcomes for the future composition of the German passenger vehicle fleet. In three different market scenarios several technical as well as political options for developing the German market towards a low carbon fleet are analyzed. Eventually, a comparison between the assumptions made and the German political goals regarding the number of electric vehicles on the road is given.