Stephen DeWilde

Trends in the prevalence of diagnosed atrial fibrillation, its treatment with anticoagulation and predictors of such treatment in UK primary care

Objectives: To examine trends in the prevalence of diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), its treatment with oral anticoagulants between 1994 and 2003, and predictors of anticoagulant treatment in 2003. Methods: Analysis of electronic data from 131 general practices (about one million registered patients annually) contributing to the DIN-LINK database. Results: From 1994 to 2003 the prevalence of “active” AF rose from 0.78% to 1.31% in men and from 0.79% to 1.15% in women. The proportion of patients with AF taking anticoagulants rose from 25% to 53% in men and from 21% to 40% in women. Most others received antiplatelets. The likelihood of receiving anticoagulants was greater for men and with increasing stroke risk. It decreased sharply with age after 75 years. Socioeconomic status, urbanisation and region had no influence. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, antiplatelet drugs and ulcer healing drugs were associated with reduced likelihood of receiving anticoagulants, as were peptic ulcers, chronic gut disorders, anaemias, psychoses and poor compliance. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with several cardiovascular co-morbidities and drugs, possibly due to secondary care treatment. Nevertheless, only 56.5% of patients at very high risk of stroke were taking anticoagulants in 2003, whereas 38.2% of patients at low risk of stroke received anticoagulants. Conclusions: This study confirms previously observed trends of increasing AF prevalence and warfarin treatment. Many patients who may benefit from anticoagulation still do not receive it, whereas others at lower risk of stroke do. The lower likelihood of women receiving anticoagulants is of particular concern.

Evolution of statin prescribing 1994–2001: a case of agism but not of sexism?

Objective: To study trends in the use of lipid lowering drugs in the UK, and to assess which patient factors influence prescribing. Methods: Routinely collected computerised medical data were analysed from 142 general practices across England and Wales that provide data for the Doctors’ Independent Network database. Subjects included were people aged 35 years or more with treated ischaemic heart disease, averaging annually over 30 000. The temporal trend from 1994 to 2001 in prescription of lipid lowering drugs and daily statin dose and the odds ratios (ORs) for receiving a statin prescription in 1998 were examined. Results: Lipid lowering drug prescribing increased greatly over time, entirely because of statins, so that in 2001 56.3% of men and 41.1% of women with ischaemic heart disease received lipid lowering drugs. However, 33% of these patients were on a < 20 mg simvastatin daily equivalent. In 1998 the OR for receiving a statin fell from 1 at age 55–64 to 0.64 at 65–74 and 0.16 at 75–84 years. The age effect was similar in those without major comorbidity. Revascularised patients were much more likely to receive a statin than those with angina (OR 3.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.57 to 4.31). Men were more likely to receive a statin than women (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.71) but this difference disappeared after adjustment for age and severity of disease (OR 1.06). Geographical region had little effect but there was a very weak socioeconomic gradient. Conclusions: Although prescribing has increased, many patients who may benefit from lipid lowering drugs either do not receive it or are undertreated, possibly because of lack of awareness of the relative potency of the different statins. Patients with angina and the elderly are less likely to receive treatment that may prevent a coronary event.

Does β‐adrenoceptor blocker therapy improve cancer survival? Findings from a population‐based retrospective cohort study

AIMS To examine the effect of β-adrenoceptor blocker treatment on cancer survival. METHODS In a UK primary care database, we compared patients with a new cancer diagnosis receiving β-adrenoceptor blockers regularly (n= 1406) with patients receiving other antihypertensive medication (n= 2056). RESULTS Compared with cancer patients receiving other antihypertensive medication, patients receiving β-adrenoceptor blocker therapy experienced slightly poorer survival (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.04, 1.33 for all β-adrenoceptor blockers; HR = 1.21, 95% CI 0.94, 1.55 for non-selective β-adrenoceptor blockers). This poorer overall survival was explained by patients with pancreatic and prostate cancer with no evidence of an effect on survival for patients with lung, breast or colorectal cancer. Analysis in a cancer-free matched parallel cohort did not suggest selection bias masked a beneficial effect. CONCLUSION Our study does not support the hypothesis that β-adrenoceptor blockers improve survival for common cancers.

Trends in secondary prevention of ischaemic heart disease in the UK 1994-2005: use of individual and combination treatment

Background: Statins, antiplatelet drugs, β-blockers and ACE inhibitors may produce marked benefits in secondary prevention of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), especially in combination. Objective: To examine trends in treatment and factors associated with treatment using a population-based general practice database. Design: Analysis of routinely collected computerised data from 201 general practices using iSOFT software contributing to the DIN-LINK database. Setting and patients: Subjects aged ⩾35 years and registered with the practices; on average, 30 000 men and 21 000 women with IHD each year. Main outcome measure: Percentage of subjects with IHD receiving individual drugs and combined treatment in any given year. Results: Between 1994 and 2005 use of drugs for secondary prevention increased markedly. By 2005, 80% of men and 70% of women were receiving a statin, 75% and 74% were receiving antiplatelet drugs, 55% and 48% were receiving β-blockers and 57% and 51% were receiving an ACE inhibitor; 55% of men and 46% of women were receiving a statin, antiplatelet drug and either β-blocker or ACE inhibitor, of whom just under half were receiving all four classes of drug. Gender differences were largely explained by more severe disease in men. In 2005, subjects less likely to receive combination therapy were older, had not had a myocardial infarction or revascularisation, and lacked comorbidities such as diabetes or hypertension. Conclusions: Despite high levels of statin and antiplatelet prescribing, opportunities exist for increasing the benefits of secondary prevention, especially through the wider use of combined treatments. Future targets could usefully include combination therapy.

Early-life exposure to antibacterials and the subsequent development of hayfever in childhood in the UK: case-control studies using the General Practice Research Database and the Doctors' Independent Network.

Background Theoretically, antibacterial agents in early life might influence allergic sensitization in two ways: (i) as an indicator of infectious illness, they might be expected to protect against allergy; (ii) alternatively they might increase the risk through effects on the commensal bowel flora. Epidemiological evidence linking the prescription of antibacterial agents in early life to the subsequent development of hayfever is conflicting.

Increased risk of acute cardiovascular events after partner bereavement: a matched cohort study.

IMPORTANCE The period immediately after bereavement has been reported as a time of increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, this risk has not been well quantified, and few large population studies have examined partner bereavement. OBJECTIVE To compare the rate of cardiovascular events between older individuals whose partner dies with those of a matched control group of individuals whose partner was still alive on the same day. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Matched cohort study using a UK primary care database containing availale data of 401 general practices from February 2005 through September 2012. In all, 30 447 individuals aged 60 to 89 years at study initiation who experienced partner bereavement during follow-up were matched by age, sex, and general practice with the nonbereaved control group (n = 83 588) at the time of bereavement. EXPOSURES Partner bereavement. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was occurrence of a fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke within 30 days of bereavement. Secondary outcomes were non-MI acute coronary syndrome and pulmonary embolism. All outcomes were compared between the groups during prespecified periods after bereavement (30, 90, and 365 days). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) from a conditional Poisson model were adjusted for age, smoking status, deprivation, and history of cardiovascular disease. RESULTS Within 30 days of their partners death, 50 of the bereaved group (0.16%) experienced an MI or a stroke compared with 67 of the matched nonbereaved controls (0.08%) during the same period (IRR, 2.20 [95% CI, 1.52-3.15]). The increased risk was seen in bereaved men and women and attenuated after 30 days. For individual outcomes, the increased risk was found separately for MI (IRR, 2.14 [95% CI, 1.20-3.81]) and stroke (2.40 [1.22-4.71]). Associations with rarer events were also seen after bereavement, including elevated risk of non-MI acute coronary syndrome (IRR, 2.20 [95% CI, 1.12-4.29]) and pulmonary embolism (2.37 [1.18-4.75]) in the first 90 days. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study provides further evidence that the death of a partner is associated with a range of major cardiovascular events in the immediate weeks and months after bereavement. Understanding psychosocial factors associated with acute cardiovascular events may provide opportunities for prevention and improved clinical care.

Infections presenting for clinical care in early life and later risk of hay fever in two UK birth cohorts.

Background:  The ‘hygiene hypothesis’ proposes that infections in infancy protect against hay fever (HF). We investigated infections during infancy in relation to HF, including rarer ones not previously researched in this context, while examining the role of potential confounding variables.

Mortality in older care home residents in England and Wales

BACKGROUND mortality in UK care homes is not well described. OBJECTIVE to describe 1-year mortality and predictors in older care home residents compared with community residents. METHOD cohort study using the THIN primary care database with 9,772 care home and 354,306 community residents aged 65-104 years in 293 English and Welsh general practices in 2009. RESULTS a total of 2,558 (26.2%) care home and 11,602 (3.3%) community residents died within 1 year. The age and sex standardised mortality ratio for nursing homes was 419 (95% CI: 396-442) and for residential homes was 284 (266-302). Age-related increases in mortality were less marked in care homes than community. Comorbidities and identification as inappropriate for chronic disease management targets predicted mortality in both settings, but associations were weaker in care homes. The number of drug classes prescribed and primary care contact were the strongest clinical predictors of mortality in care homes. CONCLUSIONS older care home residents experience high mortality. Age and diagnostic characteristics are weaker predictors of risk of death within care homes than the community. Measures of primary care utilisation may be useful proxies for frailty and improve difficult end of life care decisions in care homes.

Timing of routine immunisations and subsequent hay fever risk

Background: Suggestions that immunisation influences allergic disease risk, either positively (pertussis) or negatively (BCG) are of concern for vaccination policy. Aims: To determine whether DTP, MMR, and BCG vaccination in infancy influenced hay fever risk. Methods: Case-control study of 7098 hay fever cases and controls, within two primary care databases. One control per case was matched for practice, age, and sex. Odds ratios (OR) were derived using conditional logistic regression. Results: Compared to those completing in month 5 (base group) (39.3%), DTP unvaccinated children (4.3%) had a similar risk of hay fever (OR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.23). However, those completing after 12 months (4.2%) had a reduced risk (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.76) compared to the base group. Compared to those vaccinated in month 14 (base group) (29.5%), MMR unvaccinated children (2.3%) had an OR of 0.79 (95% CI 0.58 to 1.08). Completion of MMR after two years was associated with reduced hay fever risk (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.80) compared to the base group. The effects of late immunisation with DTP and MMR were independent. Those vaccinated with BCG by age 2 (2.4%) had an odds ratio of 1.28 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.70). Adjustment for consulting behaviour, social factors, or sibship size did not alter these associations. Conclusions: Immunisation against DTP or MMR does not increase the risk of hay fever. The lower confidence limit for BCG vaccination contradicts the hypothesised protective effect. The reduced risk of hay fever among children immunised late may be explained by a third factor causing both postponement and reduced risk such as intercurrent febrile illnesses.

Quality of chronic disease care for older people in care homes and the community in a primary care pay for performance system: retrospective study

Objective To describe the quality of care for chronic diseases among older people in care homes (nursing and residential) compared with the community in a pay for performance system. Design Retrospective analysis of The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a large primary care database. Setting 326 English and Welsh general practices, 2008-9. Participants 10 387 residents of care homes and 403 259 residents in the community aged 65 to 104 and registered for 90 or more days with their general practitioner. Main outcome measure 16 process quality indicators for chronic disease management appropriate for vulnerable older people for conditions included in the UK Quality and Outcomes Framework. Results After adjustment for age, sex, dementia, and length of registration, attainment of quality indicators was significantly lower for residents of care homes than for those in the community for 14 of 16 indicators. The largest differences were for prescribing in heart disease (β blockers in coronary heart disease, relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.75) and monitoring of diabetes (retinal screening, 0.75, 0.71 to 0.80). Monitoring hypothyroidism (0.93, 0.90 to 0.95), blood pressure in people with stroke (0.92, 0.90 to 0.95), and electrolytes for those receiving loop diuretics (0.89, 0.87 to 0.92) showed smaller differences. Attainment was lower in nursing homes than in residential homes. Residents of care homes were more likely to be identified by their doctor as unsuitable or non-consenting for all Quality and Outcomes Framework indicators for a condition allowing their exclusion from targets; 33.7% for stroke and 34.5% for diabetes. Conclusion There is scope for improving the management of chronic diseases in care homes, but high attainment of some indicators shows that pay for performance systems do not invariably disadvantage residents of care homes compared with those living in the community. High use of exception reporting may compromise care for vulnerable patient groups. The Quality and Outcomes Framework, and other pay for performance systems, should monitor attainment and exception reporting in vulnerable populations such as residents of care homes and consider measures that deal with the specific needs of older people.