Stephen Dye

Rapid freshening of the deep North Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades

The overflow and descent of cold, dense water from the sills of the Denmark Strait and the Faroe–Shetland channel into the North Atlantic Ocean is the principal means of ventilating the deep oceans, and is therefore a key element of the global thermohaline circulation. Most computer simulations of the ocean system in a climate with increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations predict a weakening thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic as the subpolar seas become fresher and warmer, and it is assumed that this signal will be transferred to the deep ocean by the two overflows. From observations it has not been possible to detect whether the oceans overturning circulation is changing, but recent evidence suggests that the transport over the sills may be slackening. Here we show, through the analysis of long hydrographic records, that the system of overflow and entrainment that ventilates the deep Atlantic has steadily changed over the past four decades. We find that these changes have already led to sustained and widespread freshening of the deep ocean.

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

Eddies and a mesoscale deflection of the slope current in the Faroe-Shetland Channel

The mesoscale dynamics of the Scottish side of the Faroe–Shetland Channel have been investigated using synoptic in situ and remote sensing observations. A cold core cyclonic eddy, identified from an AVHRR image, had a diameter of about 50 km and surface current speeds of up to 50 cm s-1; it appeared to be attached to the 800 m isobath as it moved north-eastward along the edge of the channel at about 8 cm s-1. Speeds in the slope current were about 50 cm s-1 but increased to 70 cm s-1 where the current was compressed by the eddy. Offshore, over the 1000 m isobath in the cooler water, speeds in the current were slower (ca. 20 cm s-1). North-west of the Shetlands the offshore edge of the slope current was deflected across the channel for a distance of about 70 km from the shelf edge. The speed of drifters in the slope current increased to over 60 cm s-1 as they moved anti-cyclonically around this deflection. CTD profiles suggest that the movement of the surface waters was mirrored in the deep water of the channel. The deflection carried a very large quantity of North Atlantic Water into the central part of the channel; its cause and ultimate fate are not known, although it is likely to have had a significant impact on the dynamics of the channel.

Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.

On the origin and propagation of Denmark Strait overflow water anomalies in the Irminger Basin

Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) supplies the densest contribution to North Atlantic Deep Water and is monitored at several locations in the subpolar North Atlantic. Hydrographic (temperature and salinity) and velocity time series from three multiple-mooring arrays at the Denmark Strait sill, at 180 km downstream (south of Dohrn Bank) and at a further 320 km downstream on the east Greenland continental slope near Tasiilaq (formerly Angmagssalik), were analyzed to quantify the variability and track anomalies in DSOW in the period 2007-2012. No long-term trends were detected in the time series, while variability on time scales from interannual to weekly was present at all moorings. The hydrographic time series from different moorings within each mooring array showed coherent signals, while the velocity fluctuations were only weakly correlated. Lagged correlations of anomalies between the arrays revealed a propagation from the sill of Denmark Strait to the Angmagssalik array in potential temperature with an average propagation time of 13 days, while the correlations in salinity were low. Entrainment of warm and saline Atlantic Water and fresher water from the East Greenland Current (via the East Greenland Spill Jet) can explain the whole range of hydrographic changes in the DSOW measured downstream of the sill. Changes in the entrained water masses and in the mixing ratio can thus strongly influence the salinity variability of DSOW. Fresh anomalies found in downstream measurements of DSOW within the Deep Western Boundary Current can therefore not be attributed to Arctic climate variability in a straightforward way

Seasonal variability of the East Greenland Coastal Current

The East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC) is characterized as cold, low-salinity polar waters flowing equatorward on the east Greenland shelf. It is an important conduit of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean, but our present understanding of it is poor, outside of an assortment of measurements which stem mainly from summertime visits by research vessels. This manuscript first describes measurements from moored instruments deployed on the East Greenland shelf (∼63°N) between 2000 and 2004. The measurements are then used to show that a high-resolution coupled ice-ocean global general circulation model supports a realistic representation of the EGCC. The results show that the EGCC exists throughout the year and is stronger in winter than in summer. The model EGCC seawater transports are a maximum (minimum) in February (August), at 3.8 (1.9) × 106 m3 s−1. Freshwater transports, including modeled estimates of sea ice transport and referenced to salinity 35.0, are a maximum (minimum) in February (August) at 106 (59) × 103 m3 s−1. The model results show that wind and buoyancy forcing are of similar importance to EGCC transport. An empirical decomposition of the buoyancy-forced transport into a buoyancy-only component and a coupled wind and buoyancy component indicates the two to be of similar magnitude in winter. The model annual mean freshwater flux of ∼80–90 × 103 m3 s−1 approaches 50% of the net rate of Arctic freshwater gain, underlining the climatic importance of the EGCC.

Freshwater Fluxes East of Greenland

The northern North Atlantic features areas of strong surface cooling which sets up a southward flow of sinking cold, dense waters in the deep ocean. A northward flow of warm surface waters replaces the sinking southbound waters; a loop often termed the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The associated northward heat transport is an important moderator of the high latitude climate along the flow. It is a major concern that excessive amounts of freshwater added to the northern North Atlantic could alter the dense water formation and associated ocean density contrasts driving this part of the MOC (Hakkinen 1999; Haak et al. 2003). The region has been undergoing a remarkable freshening since the mid-1960s (Curry and Mauritzen 2005; Curry et al. 2003; Dickson et al. 2002). Sources of freshwater input are runoff from Greenland, net precipitation, and export of freshwater from the Arctic in the form of sea ice and melt water through Fram Strait and the Canadian Archipelago. In the late 1960s a major freshening event contributed with as much as half of the extra freshwater required to account for the observed 1965– 1995 freshening (Curry and Mauritzen 2005). The event was labeled the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA) (Dickson et al. 1988), and appeared as extraordinarily fresh water circulating in the Subpolar gyre during the 1970s. The freshwater release has been attributed to an anomalous export of sea ice through Fram Strait during the late 1960s (Hakkinen 1993; Karcher et al. 2005). Pulses of excess freshwater and sea ice appear to have been emitted from the Arctic also after the GSA;

The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Ocean State Report

ABSTRACT The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) Ocean State Report (OSR) provides an annual report of the state of the global ocean and European regional seas for policy and decision-makers with the additional aim of increasing general public awareness about the status of, and changes in, the marine environment. The CMEMS OSR draws on expert analysis and provides a 3-D view (through reanalysis systems), a view from above (through remote-sensing data) and a direct view of the interior (through in situ measurements) of the global ocean and the European regional seas. The report is based on the unique CMEMS monitoring capabilities of the blue (hydrography, currents), white (sea ice) and green (e.g. Chlorophyll) marine environment. This first issue of the CMEMS OSR provides guidance on Essential Variables, large-scale changes and specific events related to the physical ocean state over the period 1993–2015. Principal findings of this first CMEMS OSR show a significant increase in global and regional sea levels, thermosteric expansion, ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent and conversely a decrease in Arctic sea ice extent during the 1993–2015 period. During the year 2015 exceptionally strong large-scale changes were monitored such as, for example, a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation, a high frequency of extreme storms and sea level events in specific regions in addition to areas of high sea level and harmful algae blooms. At the same time, some areas in the Arctic Ocean experienced exceptionally low sea ice extent and temperatures below average were observed in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Seclusion and restraint usage in seven English psychiatric intensive care units (PICUs)

Background : Psychiatric intensive care units (PICUs) provide care for patients who may demonstrate agitation and aggressive tendencies. Such behaviour has traditionally been managed using interventions such as seclusion and/or physical restraint. There is little published data about the use of these measures within different PICUs. This paper attempts to provide such evidence as a base for clinical governance. Aims : To describe patterns of seclusion and restraint usage within the care of 332 patients admitted consecutively to seven English PICUs. Method : Prospective, multi-centre patient case note analysis. Results : Within the four units that utilised seclusion in the study period, it was used on 16% of patients who had been admitted. All seven units used control and restraint and 28% of admitted patients were formally restrained at some point during their admission. There was no significant difference in mean duration of restraint or proportion of patients who were restrained between the units that used seclusion and those that did not. Use of seclusion was significantly associated with patient violence and property damage in PICU. Restraint usage was also significantly associated with patient violence and property damage but also with higher two week BPRS scores and a younger patient age. Conclusions : It appears that PICUs manage disturbed behaviour differently, either dependent upon facilities or local policies. In attempting to reduce the use of seclusion and restraint, a multi-faceted approach must be taken both locally and nationally. PICU clinicians and service users should be integral within this.

Interannual variability in the 1990s in the northern Atlantic and Nordic Seas

A global fine resolution curvilinear ocean model, forced by NCEP Re-Analysis fluxes, is used to study changes in the circulation of the Nordic Seas and surrounding ocean basins during 1994–2001. The model fields exhibit regionally distinct temporal variability, mostly determined by atmospheric forcing but in regions of significant sea-ice longer timescale variability is found. Some abrupt circulation changes accompany the relaxation of the westerlies following the peak North Atlantic Oscillation Index phase of the mid 1990s. The Greenland gyre spins up over the following years, with the increased circulation partially exiting through the Denmark Strait into the northern Atlantic as well as re-circulating within the Nordic Seas. This resulted in a distinct freshening around northern Iceland and an increase in the East Icelandic Current. However, these latter increases steadied after 1998, as the increased Greenland Sea gyre circulation led to a greater proportion of water leaving through the Denmark Strait...