Stephen R. Arnold

Residential energy use emissions dominate health impacts from exposure to ambient particulate matter in India

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading contributor to diseases in India. Previous studies analysing emission source attributions were restricted by coarse model resolution and limited PM2.5 observations. We use a regional model informed by new observations to make the first high-resolution study of the sector-specific disease burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India. Observed annual mean PM2.5 concentrations exceed 100 μg m−3 and are well simulated by the model. We calculate that the emissions from residential energy use dominate (52%) population-weighted annual mean PM2.5 concentrations, and are attributed to 511,000 (95UI: 340,000–697,000) premature mortalities annually. However, removing residential energy use emissions would avert only 256,000 (95UI: 162,000–340,000), due to the non-linear exposure–response relationship causing health effects to saturate at high PM2.5 concentrations. Consequently, large reductions in emissions will be required to reduce the health burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India.Exposure to ambient particulate matter is a key contributor to disease in India and source attribution is vital for pollution control. Here the authors use a high-resolution regional model to show residential emissions dominate particulate matter concentrations and associated premature mortality.

Sensitivity of midnineteenth century tropospheric ozone to atmospheric chemistry‐vegetation interactions

We use an Earth System model (HadGEM2-ES) to investigate the sensitivity of midnineteenth century tropospheric ozone to vegetation distribution and atmospheric chemistry-vegetation interaction processes. We conduct model experiments to isolate the response of midnineteenth century tropospheric ozone to vegetation cover changes between the 1860s and present day and to CO2-induced changes in isoprene emissions and dry deposition over the same period. Changes in vegetation distribution and CO2 suppression of isoprene emissions between midnineteenth century and present day lead to decreases in global isoprene emissions of 19% and 21%, respectively. This results in increases in surface ozone over the continents of up to 2 ppbv and of 2–6 ppbv in the tropical upper troposphere. The effects of CO2 increases on suppression of isoprene emissions and suppression of dry deposition to vegetation are small compared with the effects of vegetation cover change. Accounting for present-day climate in addition to present-day vegetation cover and atmospheric CO2 concentrations leads to increases in surface ozone concentrations of up to 5 ppbv over the entire northern hemisphere (NH) and of up to 8 ppbv in the NH free troposphere, compared with a midnineteenth century control simulation. Ozone changes are dominated by the following: (1) the role of isoprene as an ozone sink in the low NOx midnineteenth century atmosphere and (2) the redistribution of NOx to remote regions and the free troposphere via PAN (peroxyacetyl nitrate) formed from isoprene oxidation. We estimate a tropospheric ozone radiative forcing of 0.264 W m−2 and a sensitivity in ozone radiative forcing to midnineteenth century to present-day vegetation cover change of −0.012 W m−2.

Stringent Emission Control Policies Can Provide Large Improvements in Air Quality and Public Health in India

Abstract Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business‐as‐usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high‐resolution online‐coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM2.5 concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM2.5 in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM2.5 concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM2.5 concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India.