Steve Marvanek

Distribution and Impacts of Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumor Disease

The Tasmanian devil, Sarcophilus harrisii, is the largest extant marsupial carnivore. In 1996, a debilitating facial tumor was reported. It is now clear that this is an invariably lethal infectious cancer. The disease has now spread across the majority of the range of the species and is likely to occur across the entire range within 5 to 10 years. The disease has lead to continuing declines of up to 90% and virtual disappearance of older age classes. Mark-recapture analysis and a preliminary epidemiological model developed for the population with the best longitudinal data both project local extinction in that area over a timeframe of 10 to 15 years from disease emergence. However, the prediction of extinction from the model is sensitive to the estimate of the latent period, which is poorly known. As transmission appears to occur by biting, much of which happens during sexual encounters, the dynamics of the disease may be typical of sexually transmitted diseases. This means that transmission is likely to be frequency-dependent with no threshold density for disease maintenance. Extinction over the entire current range of the devil is therefore a real possibility and an unacceptable risk.

Estimation of Climate Change Impact on Mean Annual Runoff across Continental Australia Using Budyko and Fu Equations and Hydrological Models

AbstractThis paper presents the climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia estimated using the Budyko and Fu equations informed by projections from 15 global climate models and compares the estimates with those from extensive hydrological modeling. The results show runoff decline in southeast and far southwest Australia, but elsewhere across the continent there is no clear agreement between the global climate models in the direction of future precipitation and runoff change. Averaged across large regions, the estimates from the Budyko and Fu equations are reasonably similar to those from the hydrological models. The simplicity of the Budyko equation, the similarity in the results, and the large uncertainty in global climate model projections of future precipitation suggest that the Budyko equation is suitable for estimating climate change impact on mean annual runoff across large regions. The Budyko equation is particularly useful for data-limited regions, for studies where o...

A biophysical and economic model of agriculture and water in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

Economic analysis of climate scenarios and alternative water policies is critical for development and implementation of appropriate water policies and programs. Mathematical models have been developed to assess water resources policies due to their ability to explicitly represent the biophysical dynamics of natural systems while integrating these within social and economic constraints. These models have been criticised, however, due to the problems of simplification, overspecialisation, plausibility and lack of empirical validation. This paper introduces a mathematical programming model which uses positive mathematical programming method to calibrate and model agriculture and water use in the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. This paper reviews the theoretical and technical details of the model development including the key steps taken in collating and scaling the biophysical and economic data, and to address model parameterisation issues. The paper summarises results of an application of the model for assessing climate change impacts in the form of reduced rainfall and water allocations and increased crop water use for agricultural production. The results show the degree of variability in gross values under different climate scenarios compared to the base case scenario, especially in very dry years. The results also show how on-farm adaptation options and water markets can mitigate these losses.

Agricultural commodity mapping for land use change assessment and environmental management: an application in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.

In this study we map the distribution and dynamics of commodity-level agricultural land use in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia for two snapshot years 1996/1997 and 2000/2001. In the process, we integrate a diverse set of information including time-series remote sensing, agricultural statistics, field data from control sites and geographic information system data. A Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain technique is combined with areal interpolation to map the spatial distribution and dynamics of 48 agricultural commodities at 1.1 km resolution. We use the maps to assess land use change in the Murray–Darling Basin including a 22% increase in the area of irrigated agriculture and discuss the impacts for the management of land and water resources. The high-resolution outputs are suitable for other applications including spatially explicit economic modelling, assessments of natural resource use, and for informing agricultural, water and natural resource management planning and policy.

Which crops should be included in a carbon accounting system for Australian agriculture

Dryland agriculture is both a potential source and potential sink for CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Many carbon accounting systems apply simple emissions factors to production units to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. However, in Australia, substantial variation in climate, soils, and management across >20 Mha of field crop sowings and >30 Mha of sown pastures in the intensive land use zone, provides substantial challenges for a national carbon accounting system, and simple emission factors are unlikely to apply across the region. In Australia a model framework has been developed that requires estimates of crop dry matter production and harvested yield as the first step to obtain carbon (residue) inputs. We use Australian Bureau of Statistics data to identify which crops would need to be included in such a carbon accounting system. Wheat, barley, lupin, and canola accounted for >80% of field crop sowings in Australia in 2006, and a total of 22 crops account for >99% of the sowing area in all States. In some States, only four or six crops can account for 99% of the cropping area. We provide a ranking of these crops for Australia and for each Australian State as a focus for the establishment of a comprehensive carbon accounting framework. Horticultural crops, although diverse, are less important in terms of total area and thus C balances for generic viticulture, vegetables, and orchard fruit crops should suffice. The dataset of crop areas presented here is the most comprehensive account of crop sowings presented in the literature and provides a useful resource for those interested in Australian agriculture. The field crop rankings presented represent only the area of crop sowings and should not be taken as rankings of importance in terms of the magnitude of all GHG fluxes. This awaits a more detailed analysis of climate, soils, and management practices across each of the regions where the crops are grown and their relationships to CO2, nitrous oxide and methane fluxes. For pastures, there is a need for more detailed, up to date, spatially explicit information on the predominant sown pasture types across the Australian cropping belt before C balances for these can be more reliably modelled at the desired spatial scale.

Persistence of in-stream waterholes in ephemeral rivers of tropical northern Australia and potential impacts of climate change

Many northern Australian rivers have limited or non-existent dry season flow and rivers tend to dry to a series of pools, or waterholes, which become particularly important refugial habitat for aquatic biota during the periods between streamflow events. The present study developed techniques to identify in-stream waterholes across large and inaccessible areas of the Flinders and Gilbert catchments using Landsat imagery. Application of this technique to 400 scenes between 2003 and 2010 facilitated the identification of key waterhole refugia that are likely to persist during all years. Relationships for predicting total waterhole area from streamflow characteristics were produced for four river reaches. Using these relationships and streamflow predictions based upon climate data scaled using 15 global climate models, the potential impacts of future climate on waterhole persistence was assessed. Reductions in waterhole area of more than 60% were modelled in some years under drier scenarios and this represents a large reduction in available habitat for areas that already have limited in-stream refugia. Conversely, under wetter future climates the total area of waterholes increased. The approach developed here has applicability in other catchments, both in Australia and globally, and for assessing the impacts of changed flow resulting from water resource development.

Determining the initial spatial extent of an environmental impact assessment with a probabilistic screening methodology

Abstract A crucial decision in defining the scope of an environmental impact assessment is to delineate the initial assessment area. We developed a probabilistic methodology to determine this area, which starts by identifying a key environmental variable, maximum acceptable change and acceptable probability of exceeding that threshold. The exceedance probability is determined with a limits of acceptability rejection sampling of informed prior parameter distributions. A qualitative uncertainty analysis, a formal and systematic discussion of the main assumptions and model choices, is complemented with global sensitivity analysis of the model results to identify the major sources of uncertainty and provide guidance for further research and data collection. For the case study on coal development in the Gloucester Basin (NSW, Australia), the initial assessment extent is unlikely to extend more than 5 km from the edge of the planned coal mines. The major source of uncertainty is the planned mine water production rate.