Steve Sorrell

Sociotechnical transitions for deep decarbonization

Accelerating innovation is as important as climate policy Rapid and deep reductions in greenhouse gas emission are needed to avoid dangerous climate change. This will necessitate low-carbon transitions across electricity, transport, heat, industrial, forestry, and agricultural systems. But despite recent rapid growth in renewable electricity generation, the rate of progress toward this wider goal of deep decarbonization remains slow. Moreover, many policy-oriented energy and climate researchers and models remain wedded to disciplinary approaches that focus on a single piece of the low-carbon transition puzzle, yet avoid many crucial real-world elements for accelerated transitions (1). We present a “sociotechnical” framework to address the multidimensionality of the deep decarbonization challenge and show how coevolutionary interactions between technologies and societal groups can accelerate low-carbon transitions.

The evolution of emissions trading in the EU: tensions between national trading schemes and the proposed EU directive

Abstract The EU is pioneering the development of greenhouse gas emissions trading, but there is a tension between the ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ evolution of trading schemes. While the Commission is introducing a European emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) in 2005, several member states have already introduced negotiated agreements that include trading arrangements. Typically, these national schemes have a wider scope than the proposed EU directive and allow firms to use relative rather than absolute targets. The coexistence of ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ trading schemes may create some complex problems of policy interaction. This paper explores the potential interactions between the EU ETS and the negotiated agreements in France and UK and uses these to illustrate some important generic issues. The paper first describes the proposed EU directive, outlines the UK and French policies and compares their main features to the EU ETS. It then discusses how the national and European policies may interact in practice. Four issues are highlighted, namely, double regulation, double counting of emission reductions, equivalence of effort and linking trading schemes. The paper concludes with some recommendations for the future development of UK and French climate policy.

Using growth curves to forecast regional resource recovery: approaches, analytics and consistency tests

There is growing concern about the depletion of hydrocarbon resources and the risk of near-term peaks in production. These concerns hinge upon contested estimates of the recoverable resources of different regions and the associated forecasts of regional production. Beginning with Hubbert, an influential group of analysts have used growth curves both to estimate recoverable resources and to forecast future production. Despite widespread use, these ‘curve-fitting’ techniques remain a focus of misunderstanding and dispute. The aim of this paper is to classify and explain these techniques and to identify both their relative suitability in different circumstances and the expected level of confidence in their results. The paper develops a mathematical framework that maps curve-fitting techniques onto the available data for conventional oil and highlights the critical importance of the so-called ‘reserve growth’. It then summarizes the historical origins, contemporary application and strengths and weaknesses of each group of curve-fitting techniques and uses illustrative data from a number of oil-producing regions to explore the extent to which these techniques provide consistent estimates of recoverable resources. The paper argues that the applicability of curve-fitting techniques is more limited than adherents claim, the confidence bounds on the results are wider than commonly assumed and the techniques have a tendency to underestimate recoverable resources.

Conclusions: transitions, governance and appraisal

Around the world energy policy is becoming more politically heated. An interrelated set of factors explains this: new scientific findings about climate change and its likely consequences; rising energy prices; controversy about nuclear ambitions; fears about the security of fossil fuel supplies relating to short-term geopolitical instabilities; rapid demand growth in countries such as China and India; the prospect of declining total world oil production, and its consequences for fossil fuel prices and energy security in coming decades; and international tensions around all of these issues.

THE FAILURE OF SULPHUR TRADING IN THE UK

The use of emissions trading for the control of sulphur2 emissions was first proposed by the UK government in 1992 as an attractive means to overcome problems with the existing regulatory framework (DoE, 1992). Despite repeated pronouncements in favour of ‘sulphur quota switching’ (as it was termed) and a strong commitment to economic instruments and deregulation, the idea was eventually dropped in 1996. This chapter explains why this occurred and draws some general lessons for the implementation of emissions trading in Europe. These lessons are particularly relevant to carbon trading after Kyoto. The various European regulations on sulphur emissions and the way these have been implemented within the UK. An account of the radical changes in UK energy markets over the last decade and the impact of these on sulphur emissions follows. The evolution of the debate on sulphur quota switching is then described, showing how the proposals faced a series of obstacles that ultimately proved insurmountable. Six reasons are proposed for the failure of the scheme, namely: independent developments in energy markets; a conflict of regulatory principles; a conflict of regulatory culture; a conflict over quota allocation; persistent regulatory uncertainty; and inadequate political support. The wider implications of these lessons are then considered.