Steven Allender

The burden of physical activity-related ill health in the UK

Background: Despite evidence that physical inactivity is a risk factor for a number of diseases, only a third of men and a quarter of women are meeting government targets for physical activity. This paper provides an estimate of the economic and health burden of disease related to physical inactivity in the UK. These estimates are examined in relation to current UK government policy on physical activity. Methods: Information from the World Health Organisation global burden of disease project was used to calculate the mortality and morbidity costs of physical inactivity in the UK. Diseases attributable to physical inactivity included ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon/rectum cancer and diabetes mellitus. Population attributable fractions for physical inactivity for each disease were applied to the UK Health Service cost data to estimate the financial cost. Results: Physical inactivity was directly responsible for 3% of disability adjusted life years lost in the UK in 2002. The estimated direct cost to the National Health Service is £1.06 billion. Conclusion: There is a considerable public health burden due to physical inactivity in the UK. Accurately establishing the financial cost of physical inactivity and other risk factors should be the first step in a developing national public health strategy.

Coronary heart disease trends in England and Wales from 1984 to 2004: concealed levelling of mortality rates among young adults

Background: Trends in cardiovascular risk factors among UK adults present a complex picture. Ominous increases in obesity and diabetes among young adults raise concerns about subsequent coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in this group. Objective: To examine recent trends in age-specific mortality rates from CHD, particularly those among younger adults. Methods and results: Mortality data from 1984 to 2004 were used to calculate age-specific mortality rates for British adults aged 35+ years, and joinpoint regression was used to assess changes in trends. Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased by 54.7% in men and by 48.3% in women. However, among men aged 35–44 years, CHD mortality rates in 2002 increased for the first time in over two decades. Furthermore, the recent declines in CHD mortality rates seem to be slowing in both men and women aged 45–54. Among older adults, however, mortality rates continued to decrease steadily throughout the period. Conclusions: The flattening mortality rates for CHD among younger adults may represent a sentinel event. Deteriorations in medical management of CHD appear implausible. Thus, unfavourable trends in risk factors for CHD, specifically obesity and diabetes, provide the most likely explanation for the observed trends.

The burden of overweight and obesity‐related ill health in the UK

This paper reviews previous cost studies of overweight and obesity in the UK. It proposes a method for estimating the economic and health costs of overweight and obesity in the UK which could also be used in other countries. Costs of obesity studies were identified via a systematic search of electronic databases. Information from the WHO Burden of Disease Project was used to calculate the mortality and morbidity cost of overweight and obesity. Population attributable fractions for diseases attributable to overweight and obesity were applied to National Health Service (NHS) cost data to estimate direct financial costs. We estimate the direct cost of overweight and obesity to the NHS at £3.2 billion. Other estimates of the cost of obesity range between £480 million in 1998 and £1.1 billion in 2004 [Correction added after online publication 11 June 2007: ‘of the cost of obesity’ added after ‘Other estimates’]. There is wide variation in methods and estimates for the cost of overweight and obesity to the health systems of developed countries. The method presented here could be used to calculate the costs of overweight and obesity in other countries. Public health initiatives are required to address the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity and reduce associated healthcare costs.

The burden of smoking related ill health in the UK

Background: Smoking is one of the biggest avoidable causes of morbidity and mortality in the United Kingdom. This paper quantifies the current health and economic burden of smoking in the UK. It provides comparisons with previous studies of the burden of smoking in the UK and with the costs for other chronic disease risk factors. Methods: A systematic literature review to identify previous estimates of National Health Service costs attributable to smoking was undertaken. Information from the World Health Organization’s Global Burden of Disease Project and routinely collected mortality data were used to calculate mortality due to smoking in the UK. Population-attributable fractions for smoking-related diseases from the Global Burden of Disease Project were applied to NHS cost data to estimate direct financial costs. Results: Previous studies estimated that smoking costs the NHS about £1.4 billion to £1.7 billion in 1991 and has been responsible for about 100 000 deaths per annum over the past 10 years. This paper estimates that the number of deaths attributable to smoking in 2005 was 109 164 (19% of all deaths, 27% deaths in men and 11% of deaths in women). Smoking was directly responsible for 12% of disability adjusted life years lost in 2002 (15.4% in men; 8.5% in women) and the direct cost to the NHS was £5.2 billion in 2005–6. Conclusion: Smoking is still a considerable public health burden in the UK. Accurately establishing the burden in terms of death, disability and financial costs is important for informing national public health policy.

Modelling the health impact of environmentally sustainable dietary scenarios in the UK

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES:Food is responsible for around one-fifth of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from products consumed in the UK, the largest contributor of which is meat and dairy. The Committee on Climate Change have modelled the impact on GHG emissions of three dietary scenarios for food consumption in the UK. This paper models the impact of the three scenarios on mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer.SUBJECTS/METHODS:A previously published model (DIETRON) was used. The three scenarios were parameterised by fruit and vegetables, fibre, total fat, saturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, cholesterol and salt using the 2008 Family Food Survey. A Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% credible intervals.RESULTS:Scenario 1 (50% reduction in meat and dairy replaced by fruit, vegetables and cereals: 19% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 36 910 (30 192 to 43 592) deaths delayed or averted per year. Scenario 2 (75% reduction in cow and sheep meat replaced by pigs and poultry: 9% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 1999 (1739 to 2389) deaths delayed or averted. Scenario 3 (50% reduction in pigs and poultry replaced with fruit, vegetables and cereals: 3% reduction in GHG emissions) resulted in 9297 (7288 to 11 301) deaths delayed or averted.CONCLUSION:Modelled results suggest that public health and climate change dietary goals are in broad alignment with the largest results in both domains occurring when consumption of all meat and dairy products are reduced. Further work in real-life settings is needed to confirm these results.

Quantification of Urbanization in Relation to Chronic Diseases in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review

During and beyond the twentieth century, urbanization has represented a major demographic shift particularly in the developed world. The rapid urbanization experienced in the developing world brings increased mortality from lifestyle diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease. We set out to understand how urbanization has been measured in studies which examined chronic disease as an outcome. Following a pilot search of PUBMED, a full search strategy was developed to identify papers reporting the effect of urbanization in relation to chronic disease in the developing world. Full searches were conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and GLOBAL HEALTH. Of the 868 titles identified in the initial search, nine studies met the final inclusion criteria. Five of these studies used demographic measures (such as population density) at an area level to measure urbanization. Four studies used more complicated summary measures of individual and area level data (such as distance from a city, occupation, home and land ownership) to define urbanization. The papers reviewed were limited by using simple area level summary measures (e.g., urban rural dichotomy) or having to rely on preexisting data at the individual level. Further work is needed to develop a measure of urbanization that treats urbanization as a process and which is sensitive enough to track changes in “urbanicity” and subsequent emergence of chronic disease risk factors and mortality.

Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline

BackgroundCoronary heart disease (CHD) rates in England and Wales between 1950 and 2005 were high and reasonably steady until the mid 1970s, when they began to fall. Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.MethodsData for all deaths between 1931 and 2005 in England and Wales were grouped by year, sex, age at death and contemporaneous ICD code for CHD as cause of death. CHD mortality rates by calendar year and birth cohort were produced for both sexes and rates of change were examined.ResultsThe pattern of increased burden of CHD mortality within older age groups has only recently emerged in men, whereas it has been established in women for far longer. CHD mortality rates among younger people showed little variation by birth cohort. For younger women (49 and under), the rate of change in CHD mortality has reversed in the last 20 years, indicating a future plateau and possible reversal of previous improvement in CHD mortality rates. Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.ConclusionAlthough CHD mortality rates continue to drop in older age groups the actual burden of coronary heart disease is increasing due to the ageing of the population. The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

Cardiovascular disease in Europe.

Introduction The aim of this brief introduction to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Europe is to describe the extent and nature of the burden. The extent of the burden can be measured in different ways – not only in terms of mortality and morbidity but also in economic costs – to health services and to societies as a whole. The burden of CVD across Europe is huge but it is a burden that is greater in some parts of Europe than in others and for some socioeconomic groups more than others. It is a burden that is also changing: in some places and for some socioeconomic groups the burden is decreasing whereas in other places and for other socio-economic groups it is increasing. Only when we are clear about the nature and extent of the burden of CVD can we proceed to develop effective strategies for its prevention and treatment.

Population-level changes to promote cardiovascular health

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause 1.8 million premature (<75 years) death annually in Europe. The majority of these deaths are preventable with the most efficient and cost-effective approach being on the population level. The aim of this position paper is to assist authorities in selecting the most adequate management strategies to prevent CVD. Design and Methods: Experts reviewed and summarized the published evidence on the major modifiable CVD risk factors: food, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol. Population-based preventive strategies focus on fiscal measures (e.g. taxation), national and regional policies (e.g. smoke-free legislation), and environmental changes (e.g. availability of alcohol). Results: Food is a complex area, but several strategies can be effective in increasing fruit and vegetables and lowering intake of salt, saturated fat, trans-fats, and free sugars. Tobacco and alcohol can be regulated mainly by fiscal measures and national policies, but local availability also plays a role. Changes in national policies and the built environment will integrate physical activity into daily life. Conclusion: Societal changes and commercial influences have led to the present unhealthy environment, in which default option in life style increases CVD risk. A challenge for both central and local authorities is, therefore, to ensure healthier defaults. This position paper summarizes the evidence and recommends a number of structural strategies at international, national, and regional levels that in combination can substantially reduce CVD.

The burden of alcohol-related ill health in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND Although moderate alcohol consumption has been shown to confer a protective effect for specific diseases, current societal patterns of alcohol use impose a huge health and economic burden on modern society. This study presents a method for estimating the health and economic burden of alcohol consumption to the UK National Health Service (NHS). METHODS Previous estimates of NHS costs attributable to alcohol consumption were identified by systematic literature review. The mortality and morbidity due to alcohol consumption was calculated using information from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Project and routinely collected mortality data. Direct health-care costs were derived using information on population attributable fractions for conditions related to alcohol consumption and NHS cost data. RESULTS We estimate that alcohol consumption was responsible for 31,000 deaths in the UK in 2005 and that alcohol consumption cost the UK NHS 3.0 billion pounds in 2005-06. Alcohol consumption was responsible for 10% of all disability adjusted life years in 2002 (male: 15%; female: 4%) in the UK. CONCLUSIONS Alcohol consumption is a considerable public health burden in the UK. The comparison of the health and economic burden of various lifestyle factors is essential in prioritizing and resourcing public health action.