Steven C. Moore

Body-mass index and mortality among 1.46 million white adults.

BACKGROUND A high body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular disease and certain cancers, but the precise relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality remains uncertain. METHODS We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for an association between BMI and all-cause mortality, adjusting for age, study, physical activity, alcohol consumption, education, and marital status in pooled data from 19 prospective studies encompassing 1.46 million white adults, 19 to 84 years of age (median, 58). RESULTS The median baseline BMI was 26.2. During a median follow-up period of 10 years (range, 5 to 28), 160,087 deaths were identified. Among healthy participants who never smoked, there was a J-shaped relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality. With a BMI of 22.5 to 24.9 as the reference category, hazard ratios among women were 1.47 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1.33 to 1.62) for a BMI of 15.0 to 18.4; 1.14 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.22) for a BMI of 18.5 to 19.9; 1.00 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.04) for a BMI of 20.0 to 22.4; 1.13 (95% CI, 1.09 to 1.17) for a BMI of 25.0 to 29.9; 1.44 (95% CI, 1.38 to 1.50) for a BMI of 30.0 to 34.9; 1.88 (95% CI, 1.77 to 2.00) for a BMI of 35.0 to 39.9; and 2.51 (95% CI, 2.30 to 2.73) for a BMI of 40.0 to 49.9. In general, the hazard ratios for the men were similar. Hazard ratios for a BMI below 20.0 were attenuated with longer-term follow-up. CONCLUSIONS In white adults, overweight and obesity (and possibly underweight) are associated with increased all-cause mortality. All-cause mortality is generally lowest with a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9.

Amount of time spent in sedentary behaviors and cause-specific mortality in US adults

BACKGROUND Sedentary behaviors predominate modern life, yet we do not fully understand the adverse effects of these behaviors on mortality after considering the benefits of moderate-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). OBJECTIVE We tested the hypotheses that higher amounts of overall sitting time and television viewing are positively associated with mortality and described the independent and combined effects of these sedentary behaviors and MVPA on mortality. DESIGN In the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, we examined 240,819 adults (aged 50-71 y) who did not report any cancer, cardiovascular disease, or respiratory disease at baseline. Mortality was ascertained over 8.5 y. RESULTS Sedentary behaviors were positively associated with mortality after adjustment for age, sex, education, smoking, diet, race, and MVPA. Participants who reported the most television viewing (≥7 h compared with <1 h/d) were at greater risk of all-cause (HR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.47, 1.76), cardiovascular (HR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.20), and cancer (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.40) mortality after adjustment for MVPA. Overall sitting was associated with all-cause mortality. Even among adults reporting high levels of MVPA (>7 h/wk), high amounts of television viewing (≥7 h/d) remained associated with increased risk of all-cause (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.79) and cardiovascular (HR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.33, 3.00) mortality compared with those reporting the least television viewing (<1 h/d). CONCLUSIONS Time spent in sedentary behaviors was positively associated with mortality, and participation in high levels of MVPA did not fully mitigate health risks associated with prolonged time watching television. Adults should be encouraged to reduce time spent in sedentary behaviors, when possible, and to participate in MVPA at recommended levels. The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015.

Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: Individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents.

Summary Background Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. Methods Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4–14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2. Findings All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0–25·0 kg/m2 (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98–1·02 for BMI 20·0–<22·5 kg/m2; 1·00, 0·99–1·01 for BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m2), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09–1·17 for BMI 18·5–<20·0 kg/m2; 1·51, 1·43–1·59 for BMI 15·0–<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07–1·08 for BMI 25·0–<27·5 kg/m2; 1·20, 1·18–1·22 for BMI 27·5–<30·0 kg/m2). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0–<35·0 kg/m2) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41–1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0–<40·0 kg/m2) was 1·94, 1·87–2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0–<60·0 kg/m2) was 2·76, 2·60–2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m2, mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34–1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26–1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34–1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27–1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m2 units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m2) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47–1·56, for BMI measured at 35–49 years vs 1·21, 1·17–1·25, for BMI measured at 70–89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46–1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26–1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. Interpretation The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.

Leisure Time Physical Activity and Mortality: A Detailed Pooled Analysis of the Dose-Response Relationship

IMPORTANCE The 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans recommended a minimum of 75 vigorous-intensity or 150 moderate-intensity minutes per week (7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week) of aerobic activity for substantial health benefit and suggested additional benefits by doing more than double this amount. However, the upper limit of longevity benefit or possible harm with more physical activity is unclear. OBJECTIVE To quantify the dose-response association between leisure time physical activity and mortality and define the upper limit of benefit or harm associated with increased levels of physical activity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We pooled data from 6 studies in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium (baseline 1992-2003). Population-based prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe with self-reported physical activity were analyzed in 2014. A total of 661,137 men and women (median age, 62 years; range, 21-98 years) and 116,686 deaths were included. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with cohort stratification to generate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Median follow-up time was 14.2 years. EXPOSURES Leisure time moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The upper limit of mortality benefit from high levels of leisure time physical activity. RESULTS Compared with individuals reporting no leisure time physical activity, we observed a 20% lower mortality risk among those performing less than the recommended minimum of 7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.82]), a 31% lower risk at 1 to 2 times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]), and a 37% lower risk at 2 to 3 times the minimum (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.62-0.65]). An upper threshold for mortality benefit occurred at 3 to 5 times the physical activity recommendation (HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.59-0.62]); however, compared with the recommended minimum, the additional benefit was modest (31% vs 39%). There was no evidence of harm at 10 or more times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.78]). A similar dose-response relationship was observed for mortality due to cardiovascular disease and to cancer. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Meeting the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans minimum by either moderate- or vigorous-intensity activities was associated with nearly the maximum longevity benefit. We observed a benefit threshold at approximately 3 to 5 times the recommended leisure time physical activity minimum and no excess risk at 10 or more times the minimum. In regard to mortality, health care professionals should encourage inactive adults to perform leisure time physical activity and do not need to discourage adults who already participate in high-activity levels.

Leisure time physical activity of moderate to vigorous intensity and mortality: a large pooled cohort analysis.

Analyzing data from over 650,000 individuals, Dr. Steven Moore and colleagues report that greater amounts of leisure-time physical activity were associated with higher life expectancy across a wide range of activity levels and body mass index groups.

Association of Leisure-Time Physical Activity With Risk of 26 Types of Cancer in 1.44 Million Adults

IMPORTANCE Leisure-time physical activity has been associated with lower risk of heart-disease and all-cause mortality, but its association with risk of cancer is not well understood. OBJECTIVE To determine the association of leisure-time physical activity with incidence of common types of cancer and whether associations vary by body size and/or smoking. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We pooled data from 12 prospective US and European cohorts with self-reported physical activity (baseline, 1987-2004). We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for associations of leisure-time physical activity with incidence of 26 types of cancer. Leisure-time physical activity levels were modeled as cohort-specific percentiles on a continuous basis and cohort-specific results were synthesized by random-effects meta-analysis. Hazard ratios for high vs low levels of activity are based on a comparison of risk at the 90th vs 10th percentiles of activity. The data analysis was performed from January 1, 2014, to June 1, 2015. EXPOSURES Leisure-time physical activity of a moderate to vigorous intensity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident cancer during follow-up. RESULTS A total of 1.44 million participants (median [range] age, 59 [19-98] years; 57% female) and 186 932 cancers were included. High vs low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with lower risks of 13 cancers: esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37-0.89), liver (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.55-0.98), lung (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.71-0.77), kidney (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.70-0.85), gastric cardia (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64-0.95), endometrial (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.68-0.92), myeloid leukemia (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.70-0.92), myeloma (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.95), colon (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.77-0.91), head and neck (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78-0.93), rectal (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80-0.95), bladder (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.82-0.92), and breast (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.87-0.93). Body mass index adjustment modestly attenuated associations for several cancers, but 10 of 13 inverse associations remained statistically significant after this adjustment. Leisure-time physical activity was associated with higher risks of malignant melanoma (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.16-1.40) and prostate cancer (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08). Associations were generally similar between overweight/obese and normal-weight individuals. Smoking status modified the association for lung cancer but not other smoking-related cancers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Leisure-time physical activity was associated with lower risks of many cancer types. Health care professionals counseling inactive adults should emphasize that most of these associations were evident regardless of body size or smoking history, supporting broad generalizability of findings.

Body Size and Renal Cell Cancer Incidence in a Large US Cohort Study

Renal cell cancer (RCC) incidence has increased in the United States over the past three decades. The authors analyzed the association between body mass index (BMI) and invasive RCC in the National Institutes of Health (NIH)-AARP Diet and Health Study, a large, prospective cohort aged 50-71 years at baseline initiated in 1995-1996, with follow-up through December 2003. Detailed analyses were conducted in a subcohort responding to a second questionnaire, including BMI at younger ages (18, 35, and 50 years); weight change across three consecutive age intervals; waist, hip, and waist-to-hip ratio; and height at age 18 years. Incident RCC was diagnosed in 1,022 men and 344 women. RCC was positively and strongly related to BMI at study baseline. Among subjects analyzed in the subcohort, RCC associations were strongest for baseline BMI and BMI recalled at age 50 years and were successively attenuated for BMI recalled at ages 35 and 18 years. Weight gain in early (18-35 years of age) and mid- (35-50 years of age) adulthood was strongly associated with RCC, whereas weight gain after midlife (age 50 years to baseline) was unrelated. Waist-to hip ratio was positively associated with RCC in women and with height at age 18 years in both men and women.

A Pooled Analysis of Waist Circumference and Mortality in 650,000 Adults

OBJECTIVES To assess the independent effect of waist circumference on mortality across the entire body mass index (BMI) range and to estimate the loss in life expectancy related to a higher waist circumference. PATIENTS AND METHODS We pooled data from 11 prospective cohort studies with 650,386 white adults aged 20 to 83 years and enrolled from January 1, 1986, through December 31, 2000. We used proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association of waist circumference with mortality. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 9 years (maximum, 21 years), 78,268 participants died. After accounting for age, study, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and physical activity, a strong positive linear association of waist circumference with all-cause mortality was observed for men (HR, 1.52 for waist circumferences of ≥110 vs <90 cm; 95% CI, 1.45-1.59; HR, 1.07 per 5-cm increment in waist circumference; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08) and women (HR, 1.80 for waist circumferences of ≥95 vs <70 cm; 95% CI, 1.70-1.89; HR, 1.09 per 5-cm increment in waist circumference; 95% CI, 1.08-1.09). The estimated decrease in life expectancy for highest vs lowest waist circumference was approximately 3 years for men and approximately 5 years for women. The HR per 5-cm increment in waist circumference was similar for both sexes at all BMI levels from 20 to 50 kg/m(2), but it was higher at younger ages, higher for longer follow-up, and lower among male current smokers. The associations were stronger for heart and respiratory disease mortality than for cancer. CONCLUSIONS In white adults, higher waist circumference was positively associated with higher mortality at all levels of BMI from 20 to 50 kg/m(2). Waist circumference should be assessed in combination with BMI, even for those in the normal BMI range, as part of risk assessment for obesity-related premature mortality.

Observational Epidemiologic Studies of Nutrition and Cancer: The Next Generation (with Better Observation)

It would be of enormous public health importance if diet and physical activity, both modifiable behavioral factors, were causally related to cancer. Nevertheless, the nutritional epidemiology of cancer remains problematic, in part because of persistent concerns that standard questionnaires measure diet and physical activity with too much error. We present a new strategy for addressing this measurement error problem. First, as background, we note that food frequency and physical activity questionnaires require respondents to report “typical” diet or activity over the previous year or longer. Multiple 24-hour recalls (24HR), based on reporting only the previous days behavior, offer potential cognitive advantages over the questionnaires, and biomarker evidence suggests the 24-hour dietary recall is more accurate than the food frequency questionnaire. The expense involved in administering multiple 24HRs in large epidemiologic studies, however, has up to now been prohibitive. In that context, we suggest that Internet-based 24HRs, for both diet and physical activity, represent a practical and cost-effective approach for incorporating multiple recalls in large epidemiologic studies. We discuss (1) recent efforts to develop such Internet-based instruments and their accompanying software support systems; (2) ongoing studies to evaluate the feasibility of using these new instruments in cohort studies; (3) additional investigations to gauge the accuracy of the Internet-based recalls vis-à-vis standard instruments and biomarkers; and (4) new statistical approaches for combining the new instruments with standard assessment tools and biomarkers The incorporation of Internet-based 24HRs into large epidemiologic studies may help advance our understanding of the nutritional determinants of cancer. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(4):1026–32)

Metabolomics in nutritional epidemiology: identifying metabolites associated with diet and quantifying their potential to uncover diet-disease relations in populations.

BACKGROUND Metabolomics is an emerging field with the potential to advance nutritional epidemiology; however, it has not yet been applied to large cohort studies. OBJECTIVES Our first aim was to identify metabolites that are biomarkers of usual dietary intake. Second, among serum metabolites correlated with diet, we evaluated metabolite reproducibility and required sample sizes to determine the potential for metabolomics in epidemiologic studies. DESIGN Baseline serum from 502 participants in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial was analyzed by using ultra-high-performance liquid-phase chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Usual intakes of 36 dietary groups were estimated by using a food-frequency questionnaire. Dietary biomarkers were identified by using partial Pearsons correlations with Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) between samples collected 1 y apart in a subset of 30 individuals were calculated to evaluate intraindividual metabolite variability. RESULTS We detected 412 known metabolites. Citrus, green vegetables, red meat, shellfish, fish, peanuts, rice, butter, coffee, beer, liquor, total alcohol, and multivitamins were each correlated with at least one metabolite (P < 1.093 × 10(-6); r = -0.312 to 0.398); in total, 39 dietary biomarkers were identified. Some correlations (citrus intake with stachydrine) replicated previous studies; others, such as peanuts and tryptophan betaine, were novel findings. Other strong associations included coffee (with trigonelline-N-methylnicotinate and quinate) and alcohol (with ethyl glucuronide). Intraindividual variability in metabolite levels (1-y ICCs) ranged from 0.27 to 0.89. Large, but attainable, sample sizes are required to detect associations between metabolites and disease in epidemiologic studies, further emphasizing the usefulness of metabolomics in nutritional epidemiology. CONCLUSIONS We identified dietary biomarkers by using metabolomics in an epidemiologic data set. Given the strength of the associations observed, we expect that some of these metabolites will be validated in future studies and later used as biomarkers in large cohorts to study diet-disease associations. The PLCO trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00002540.