Steven W. Hostetler

The last glacial maximum

The Melting Is in the Details Global sea level rises and falls as ice sheets and glaciers melt and grow, providing an integrated picture of the changes in ice volume but little information about how much individual ice fields are contributing to those variations. Knowing the regional structure of ice variability during glaciations and deglaciations will clarify the mechanisms of the glacial cycle. Clark et al. (p. 710) compiled and analyzed more than 5000 radiocarbon and cosmogenic surface exposure ages in order to develop a record of maximum regional ice extent around the time of the Last Glacial Maximum. The responses of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres differed significantly, which reveals how the evolution of specific ice sheets affected sea level and provides insight into how insolation controlled the deglaciation. Regional patterns are presented of the timing of ice-sheet and mountain-glacier maxima near the end of the last ice age. We used 5704 14C, 10Be, and 3He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ~14.5 ka.

Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the No‐analog problem yields cool Ice Age tropics

The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5 o to 6oC in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) (1981) and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAPs inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

Lake-Atmosphere Feedbacks Associated with Paleolakes Bonneville and Lahontan

A high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model was used to study the interactions between the atmosphere and the large Pleistocene lakes in the Great Basin of the United States. Simulations for January and July 18,000 years ago indicate that moisture provided by synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation features was the primary component of the hydrologic budgets of Lakes Lahontan and Bonneville. In addition, lake-generated precipitation was a substantial component of the hydrologic budget of Lake Bonneville at that time. This local lake-atmosphere interaction may help explain differences in the relative sizes of these lakes 18,000 years ago.

Interactive coupling of a lake thermal model with a regional climate model

A one-dimensional model of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice has been coupled in an interactive mode with the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University regional (mesoscale) atmospheric model (MM4). The coupled MM4-lake model makes possible high-resolution simulations of climate in the proximity of large water bodies. Atmospheric variables required as input for the lake model are supplied by MM4 and simulated values of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover are supplied to MM4 by the lake model. The authors have tested the coupled model system with a 60-day, summertime simulation at Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and with a 10-day, wintertime simulation of the North American Great Lakes and vicinity. Both simulations were conducted at a 60-km resolution. Results from these tests indicate the coupled model system produces realistic simulations of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover and that the coupled system is applicable to simulations of regional climate change. 26 refs., 16 figs.

Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: a case study at 6000 years B.P.

Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earths orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10-5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCM1, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100-200 km north in most sectors. Both CCMI and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets.

Large fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in the Indian and Pacific oceans during Dansgaard‐Oeschger oscillations caused by variations of North Atlantic Deep Water subduction

A.S. and S.H. were supported by the paleoclimate program of the National Science Foundation as part of the PALEOVAR project (ATM-0602395).

Toward the Simulation of the Effects of the Great Lakes on Regional Climate

Abstract This paper describes a set of numerical experiments aimed at evaluating the feasibility of applying a version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Pennsylvania State University regional model (MM4) to regional climate simulation over the Great Lakes Basin. The objectives of this initial modeling investigation are 1) to examine whether the MM4 can capture the primary forcing exerted by the Great Lakes on the regional climate and 2) to evaluate what model resolution and configuration are needed to simulate such forcing. Simulations over the Great Lakes region are conducted with and without representation of the lakes at four model gridpoint resolutions ranging from 15 to 90 km. One experiment at 60-km resolution is discussed in which a one-dimensional thermal eddy diffusion model is interactively coupled to the MM4 to represent the lakes. Initial and lateral boundary conditions necessary to drive these simulations are provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)...

Paleoclimatic implications of the high stand of Lake Lahontan derived from models of evaporation and lake level

Based on previous climate model simulations of a split of the polar jet stream during the late Pleistocene, we hypothesize that (1) 20–13.5 ka BP, season-to-season variation in the latitudinal maximum of the jet stream core led to enhanced wetness in the Great Basin, and (2) after 13.5 ka BP, northward movement of the jet stream resulted in increased aridity similar to today. We suggest that the enhanced effective wetness was due to increased precipitation combined with an energy-limited reduction in evaporation rates that was caused by increased summer cloud cover. A physically based thermal evaporation model was used to simulate evaporation for Lake Lahontan under various hypothesized paleoclimates. The simulated evaporation rates, together with hypothetical rates of precipitation and discharge, were input to a water balance model of Lake Lahontan. A 42% reduction in evaporation rate, combined with maximum historical rates of precipitation (1.8 times the mean annual rate) and discharge (2.4 times the mean annual rate), were sufficient to maintain Lake Lahontan at its 20-15 ka BP level. When discharge was increased to 3.8 times the present-day, mean annual rate, the ∼ 13.5 ka BP maximum level of Lake Lahontan was attained within 1400 years. A 135-m drop from the maximum level to Holocene levels was simulated within 300 years under the imposition of the present-day hydrologic balance.

Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events

This research was supported by the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change Program and NSF under grants ATM-9523584, ATM-9632029, and EAR-9725554.

Simulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold event.