Stewart Prest

Security, development, and the fragile state : bridging the gap between theory and policy

1: Introduction 2: Policy Analysis: Contending and Complementary Approaches 3: A Fragile States Framework 4: The Determinants and Consequences of State Fragility: An Empirical Assessment 5: Assessing Policy Inputs: Aid Allocation and Effectiveness in Fragile States Environments 6: Profiles of Fragility for Effective Risk Analysis and Monitoring 7: Fragility Relevance and Impact Assessment

State Fragility and Implications for Aid Allocation: An Empirical Analysis

In recent years, state fragility has gained importance as a result of the perceived links between poverty, conflict, and global terrorism. In this paper, we examine the relationship between state fragility and aid by evaluating the literature and research programs currently extant. We bring conceptual clarity to the issue by developing and testing an alternative theoretical framework using CIFPs fragility index (articulated around the concepts of authority, legitimacy, and capacity [ALC]) and by using data collected for the period 1999—2005 to identify the empirical determinants of fragility. We then examine the effects of state fragility on aid allocation, using the ALC framework as defined. Our results indicate that aid allocation is directed toward states on the basis of their capacity and authority scores and not on the basis of their legitimacy scores. Finally, we assess the theoretical and policy implications of these findings and specify directions for future research.

THE 2006 COUNTRY INDICATORS FOR FOREIGN POLICY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR CANADA

The Fragile States Monitoring and Assessment Project is a research endeavour of Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP), undertaken with support from the Government of Canada through the Canadian international Development Agency (CIDA). Its goal is to provide evidence‐based support to government programming decisions in fragile states. The project comprises one part of a whole‐of‐government response to emerging best practice in fragile states, placing emphasis on understanding the fundamental source(s) of fragility, and on the need for a carefully considered, closely coordinated strategy to address those underlying concerns.

Risk Assessment and State Failure

This article examines emerging linkages between current policies and state failure, and assesses the potential for including risk analysis and early warning in emerging “whole-of-government” approaches to the problem of state failure. The article argues that current aid policies have focused primarily on “good performers” and that the relevant tools therefore tend to be “tilted” towards the key features of these kinds of states, primarily in the macroeconomic domain and the governance sector. Only recently, with the shift towards state failure and the presumed linkage with regional and global security, have policies focused on a much broader array of factors—including organised crime and drug trafficking. These new elements, many of which are transnational in scope, are specified in the 2004 High Level Report on UN Reform and are now becoming visible in the various frameworks being developed by aid, diplomatic and defence departments. The article argues that these analytical frameworks should adopt a methodology of operational net assessment which evaluates both the intended and unintended consequences of aid impact in the fragile- or failed-state domain, as well as the various nodes of activity towards which aid is directed.