Yiagadeesen Samy

Security, development, and the fragile state : bridging the gap between theory and policy

1: Introduction 2: Policy Analysis: Contending and Complementary Approaches 3: A Fragile States Framework 4: The Determinants and Consequences of State Fragility: An Empirical Assessment 5: Assessing Policy Inputs: Aid Allocation and Effectiveness in Fragile States Environments 6: Profiles of Fragility for Effective Risk Analysis and Monitoring 7: Fragility Relevance and Impact Assessment

State Fragility and Implications for Aid Allocation: An Empirical Analysis

In recent years, state fragility has gained importance as a result of the perceived links between poverty, conflict, and global terrorism. In this paper, we examine the relationship between state fragility and aid by evaluating the literature and research programs currently extant. We bring conceptual clarity to the issue by developing and testing an alternative theoretical framework using CIFPs fragility index (articulated around the concepts of authority, legitimacy, and capacity [ALC]) and by using data collected for the period 1999—2005 to identify the empirical determinants of fragility. We then examine the effects of state fragility on aid allocation, using the ALC framework as defined. Our results indicate that aid allocation is directed toward states on the basis of their capacity and authority scores and not on the basis of their legitimacy scores. Finally, we assess the theoretical and policy implications of these findings and specify directions for future research.

Trade and labour standards: Theory and new empirical evidence

Recent trade negotiations, both at the regional and multilateral level, have seen a resurgence of the issue of trade and labour standards. Labour interests in high-standards countries argue that low labour standards are an unfair source of comparative advantage, and that increasing imports from low-standards countries will have an adverse impact on wages and working conditions in high-standards countries, thus leading to a race to the bottom of standards. For low-standards countries, there is the fear that this is just a form of disguised protectionism and that the imposition of high labour standards upon them is equally unfair since it will erode their competitiveness, the latter being largely based on labour costs. Our objective in the present paper is to cast some light on the above debate from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. In particular, we first discuss some possible theoretical links between labour standards and comparative advantage through their effects on the terms of trade. We then investigate empirically the relationship between labour standards, comparative advantage and export performance. Overall, our empirical results suggest that caution should be exercised before drawing broad conclusions on the magnitude and direction of these effects.

China's Aid Policies in Africa: Opportunities and Challenges

Abstract Since the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China–Africa Co-operation in 2006, Chinas renewed interest in Africa has garnered a lot of attention and generated a lot of debate. Western media and analysts have, perhaps not surprisingly, been generally very critical of Chinas rising influence in Africa. The African reaction, however, has been more mixed. African leaders have welcomed what they see as a new approach to development and increased potential for meaningful South–South co-operation. African civil society groups have been more cautious and are worried about the possible negative repercussions on governance, the environment, human rights and overall economic development. This paper focuses on Chinese foreign aid to Africa and discusses the opportunities and challenges that it presents for China, the African continent, and the international community. This allows the uncovering of many misconceptions regarding the potential impact (whether positive or negative) of this renewed interest by different parties. The paper argues that if one adopts an approach that puts ordinary Africans first, at the centre of development, then the only option available to us is to engage China in a constructive partnership in order to make its aid effective.

THE 2006 COUNTRY INDICATORS FOR FOREIGN POLICY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR CANADA

The Fragile States Monitoring and Assessment Project is a research endeavour of Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP), undertaken with support from the Government of Canada through the Canadian international Development Agency (CIDA). Its goal is to provide evidence‐based support to government programming decisions in fragile states. The project comprises one part of a whole‐of‐government response to emerging best practice in fragile states, placing emphasis on understanding the fundamental source(s) of fragility, and on the need for a carefully considered, closely coordinated strategy to address those underlying concerns.

Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and Events Data

The primary objective of this article is to advance the development of early warning of intrastate conflict by combining country-level structural and events data in a logistic regression model calibrated and validated using split-sample cases. Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of one or more highly destabilizing events collectively termed a crisis of interest (COI). Two separate two-year periods between 1990 and 2005 were examined in twenty-five globally dispersed countries. COIs occurred in about 6 percent of all the half-monthly periods examined. While model accuracy (total correct predictions of COI and non-COI) usually exceeded 90 percent, the model did not generate sufficiently high and consistent precision (correct number of COI over total predicted) and recall (correct number of COI over total observed) for practical use.

Diasporas, Remittances and State Fragility: Assessing the Linkages

The growing prominence of diaspora communities around the world has led to increased recognition of the role they play in the domestic affairs of their respective homelands. Current research in the field of ethnic conflict has begun to focus on transnational ethnic linkages, identifying and analysing a wide range of processes through which they affect political and social outcomes. However, the overall impact of these relationships on civil conflict is still poorly understood. Although existing quantitative research in this area is limited, there is some evidence to suggest that, under certain circumstances, diaspora groups pose a risk to intrastate security by increasing the probability of civil war. Approaching the issue from a state fragility perspective, this paper challenges the notion that transnational ethnic linkages are primarily detrimental, proposing instead that kin groups with the greatest capacity to mobilize resources are more likely to promote stability. The results of the analysis support this hypothesis, indicating that larger, more geographically concentrated diasporas located in high-income, democratic host states typically have a stabilizing effect on fragile home communities.

Towards a theory of fragile state transitions: evidence from Yemen, Bangladesh and Laos

This article uses the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) fragile states framework to evaluate fragile state transitions. Our objective is to find out why some states considered fragile have recovered, while others remain fragile for long periods. We identify three categories of countries: those in a fragility trap, those that have exited it, and those that fluctuate between fragility and stability. CIFP data are used to examine state transitions for each category. One state from each category is then subjected to further country-level analysis. Our findings reinforce the view that state transitions do not follow a unique path and that effective engagement in fragile states requires different approaches across cases.

Trade and Labor Standards in the European Union: A Gravity Model Approach

Using a gravity model, we examine whether labor standards are important determinants of bilateral export performance for EU-15 countries over the period 1988–2001. We assess the conventional wisdom that countries with low labor standards and less stringent regulations have performed better in terms of trade performance, and we use a panel data set in a triple-indexed gravity model to conduct our empirical investigation. We find several instances where improvements in labor standards are related to improvements in export performance, suggesting that productivity improvements as a result of better standards outweigh the costs of these standards themselves. These results are robust to the choice of dependent variable, specification tests, and robustness checks. The standard variables used in gravity equations conform to theoretical expectations and are highly significant.

Typology of State Types: Persistence and Transition

Research on state fragility has seldom examined questions of persistence and transition of states. We develop a sixfold typology of states to examine how key structural features of states evolve and contribute to successful exits from fragility in some cases and persistence in others. Particularly worrisome is the lack of positive transition among the weakest states. Our findings are derived from a minimalist construct of a refined time series data set involving state indicators of authority, legitimacy, and capacity. Case studies of some of the more turbulent examples support our state trajectories. Additionally, changes in legitimacy most often led state transitions into or out of fragility. Implications of intervention policy for transitioning states out of fragility are addressed, and these are given particular focus since fragile states experience at least twice the intensity/incidence of internal armed conflict compared to other states.