Stuart Cohen

Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states, which experience reduced water rights purchases and a greater share of rights acquired from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.Copyright

Water Constraints in an Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Model

This analysis provides a description of the first U.S. national electricity capacity expansion model to incorporate water resource availability and costs as a constraint for the future development of the electricity sector. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model was modified to incorporate water resource availability constraints and costs in each of its 134 Balancing Area (BA) regions along with differences in costs and efficiencies of cooling systems. Water resource availability and cost data are from recently completed research at Sandia National Laboratories (Tidwell et al. 2013b). Scenarios analyzed include a business-as-usual 3 This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. scenario without water constraints as well as four scenarios that include water constraints and allow for different cooling systems and types of water resources to be utilized. This analysis provides insight into where water resource constraints could affect the choice, configuration, or location of new electricity technologies.

Water Impacts of High Solar PV Electricity Penetration

This analysis provides a detailed national and regional description of the water-related impacts and constraints of high solar electricity penetration scenarios in the U.S. in 2030 and 2050. A modified version of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that incorporates water resource availability and costs as a constraint in each of its 134 Balancing Area (BA) regions was utilized to explore national and regional differences in water use impacts and solar deployment locations under different solar energy cost and water availability scenarios (Macknick et al. 2015). Water resource availability and cost data are from recently completed research at Sandia National Laboratories (Tidwell et al. 2013a). Scenarios analyzed include two business-as-usual solar energy cost cases, one with and one without considering available water resources, and four solar energy cost cases that meet the SunShot cost goals (i.e.,

The environmental and public health benefits of achieving high penetrations of solar energy in the United States

1/watt for utility-scale PV systems), with varying levels of water availability restrictions. This analysis provides insight into the role solar energy technologies have in the broader electricity sector under scenarios of water constraints.