Suk-Jin Choi

Development of New Ensemble Methods Based on the Performance Skills of Regional Climate Models over South Korea

AbstractIn this paper, the prediction skills of five ensemble methods for temperature and precipitation are discussed by considering 20 yr of simulation results (from 1989 to 2008) for four regional climate models (RCMs) driven by NCEP–Department of Energy and ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) boundary conditions. The simulation domain is the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia, and the number of grid points is 197 × 233 with a 50-km horizontal resolution. Three new performance-based ensemble averaging (PEA) methods are developed in this study using 1) bias, root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) and absolute correlation (PEA_BRC), RMSE and absolute correlation (PEA_RAC), and RMSE and original correlation (PEA_ROC). The other two ensemble methods are equal-weighted averaging (EWA) and multivariate linear regression (Mul_Reg). To derive the weighting coefficients and cross validate the prediction skills of the five ensemble methods, the authors considered 15-yr and 5-yr data, ...

A regional climate change simulation over East Asia

In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day−1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day−1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.

A global non-hydrostatic dynamical core using the spectral element method on a cubed-sphere grid

A new global model with a non-hydrostatic (NH) dynamical core is developed. It employs the spectral element method (SEM) in the horizontal discretization and the finite difference method (FDM) in the vertical discretization. The solver includes a time-split third-order Runge-Kutta (RK3) time-integration technique. Pursuing the quasi-uniform and pole singularity-free spherical geometry, a cubed-sphere grid is employed. To assess the performance of the developed dynamical solver, the results from a number of idealized benchmark tests for hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic flows are presented and compared. The results indicate that the non-hydrostatic dynamical solver is able to produce solutions with good accuracy and consistency comparable to reference solutions. Further evaluation of the model with a full-physics package demonstrates its capability in reproducing heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula, which confirms that coupling of the dynamical solver and full-physics package is robust.

Simulation Skills of RegCM4 for Regional Climate over CORDEX East Asia driven by HadGEM2-AO

In this study, 27-year (1979-2005) regional climate over the CORDEX East Asia domain was reproduced using a regional climate model, RegCM4, driven by HadGEM2-AO output, and the model`s simulation skill was evaluated in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation. The RegCM4 reasonably simulated the spatial distribution and interannual variability and seasonal variability of surface air temperature, while it had systematic biases in the simulation of precipitation. In particular, simulated rainband of East Asian summer monsoon was southward shifted below as compared with the observation, thereby, summer mean precipitation over South Korea was significantly underestimated. Simulated temperature from the RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM2-AO output was comparable to that driven by the reanalysis. However, the RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM2-AO had prominently poor skill in the simulation of precipitation. This can be associated with the distorted monsoon circulations in the driving data (i.e., HadGEM2-AO) such as southward shifted low-level southwesterly, which resulted in the erroneous evolution of East Asian summer monsoon simulated by RegCM4.

The Korean Integrated Model (KIM) System for Global Weather Forecasting

The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) began a national project to develop a new global atmospheric model system in 2011. The ultimate goal of this 9-year project is to replace the current operational model at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which was adopted from the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office’s unified model (UM) in 2010. The 12-km Korean Integrated Model (KIM) system, consisting of a spectral-element non-hydrostatic dynamical core on a cubed sphere grid and a state-of-the-art physics parameterization package, has been launched in a real-time forecast framework, with initial conditions obtained via the advanced hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation (4DEnVar) over its native grid. A development strategy for KIM and the evolution of its performance in medium-range forecasts toward a world-class global forecast system are described. Outstanding issues in KIM 3.1 as of February 2018 are discussed, along with a future plan for operational deployment in 2020.

Regional Climate Simulations over East-Asia by using SNURCM and WRF Forced by HadGEM2-AO

In this study, the reproducibility of the simulated current climate by using two regional climate models, such as Seoul National University Regional Climate Model (SNURCM) and Weather Resuearch and Forecasting (WRF), is evaluated in advance to produce the standard regional climate scenario of future climate. Within the evaluation framework of a COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX), 28-year-long (1978-2005) regional climate simulation was conducted by using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM2-AO) global simulation data of the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) as a lateral boundary forcing. The simulated annual surface temperatures were in good agreement with the observation; the spatial correlation coefficients between each model and observation were over 0.98. The cold bias, however, were shown over the northern boundary in the both simulated results. In evaluation of the simulated precipitation, the skill was reasonable and good. The spatial correlation coefficients for the precipitation over the land area were 0.85 and 0.79 in SNURCM and WRF, respectively. It is noted that two regional climate models (RCMs) have different characteristics for the distribution of precipitation over equatorial and midlatitude areas. SNURCM shows better distribution of the simulated precipitation associated with the East Asia summer monsoon in the mid-latitude areas, but WRF shows better in the equatorial areas in comparison to each other. The simulated precipitation is overestimated in summer season (JJA) rather than in spring season (MAM), whereas the spatial distribution of the precipitation in spring season corresponds to the observation better than in summer season. Also the RCMs were capable of reproducing the annual variability of the maximum amount and its timing in July, in which the skills over the inland area were in better agreement with the observation than over the maritime area. The simulated regional climates, however, have the limitation to represent the number of days for extremely hot temperature and heavy rainfall over South Korea.

Impact of spectral nudging on the downscaling of tropical cyclones in regional climate simulations

This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment (CTL), the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

Indoor Activity Monitoring System Using an Accelerometer and Zigbee

Physical activity assessment is useful for determining both physical and mental health. The measurement of activity has been performed by several techniques such as direct observations, subjective reports, metabolic measurements and portable physical activity monitors. Each type of technique has certain strengths and weaknesses. Recently, studies on portable physical activity monitors have been increasing and presented good assessment results. Upon consideration of the characteristics of the portable monitors such as being unconstrained and long-term monitoring, an indoor portable monitor was designed and developed. It measures three dimensional acceleration and transfers data by Zigbee protocol wirelessly. This system could help to assess daily activity without subjects consciousness.

Effects of Parameterized Orographic Drag on Weather Forecasting and Simulated Climatology over East Asia during Boreal Summer

The Impact of subgrid orographic drag on weather forecasting and simulated climatology over East Asia in boreal summer is examined using two parameterization schemes in a global forecast model. The schemes consider gravity wave drag (GWD) with and without lower-level wave breaking drag (LLWD) and flow-blocking drag (FBD). Simulation results from sensitivity experiments verify that the scheme with LLWD and FBD improves the intensity of a summertime continental high over the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, which is exaggerated with GWD only. This is because the enhanced lower tropospheric drag due to the effects of lower-level wave breaking and flow blocking slows down the wind flowing out of the high pressure system in the lower troposphere. It is found that the decreased lower-level divergence induces a compensating weakening of mid- to upper-level convergence aloft. Extended experiments for medium-range forecasts for July 2013 and seasonal simulations for June to August of 2013-2015 are also conducted. Statistical skill scores for medium-range forecasting are improved not only in low-level winds but also in surface pressure when both LLWD and FBD are considered. A simulated climatology of summertime monsoon circulation in East Asia is also realistically reproduced.

Structure of Eigenvalues in the Advection-Diffusion Equation by the Spectral Element Method on a Cubed-Sphere Grid

To fundamentally understand discretized equations and differential operators, this study investigates the eigenvalues of the spherical gradient matrix and spherical Laplacian matrix discretized by the spectral element method (SEM) on the cubed-sphere grid (CS) for solid-body rotation. The gradient matrix with prescribed wind for the solid-body rotation has small positive real numbers in the eigenvalues, which implies that the solutions of the advection equation for solid-body rotation can be unstable and distorted. However, the unstable model can be effectively controlled by the Laplacian matrix, and all eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix are aligned along the negative part of the real axis. The maximum eigenvalues of the gradient matrix and Laplacian matrix exhibit the characteristic of a linear function of the resolution, which is important to determine the upper limit of the time-step size for stable time integration. This study suggests suitable e-folding time scale of the diffusion using the 6th order for applications of the advection-diffusion equation. Regarding the characteristics of the eigenvalues, the setting of the stable time step is discussed. A method to implement the diffusion operators in the third-order Runge-Kutta time integration scheme in the advection-diffusion model is also discussed.