Sunčica Vujić

The Crime Reducing Effect of Education

In this paper, we present evidence on empirical connections between crime and education, using various data sources from Britain. A robust finding is that criminal activity is negatively associated with higher levels of education. However, it is essential to ensure that the direction of causation flows from education to crime. Therefore, we identify the effect of education on participation in criminal activity using changes in compulsory school leaving age laws over time to account for the endogeneity of education. In this causal approach, for property crimes, the negative crime-education relationship remains strong and significant. The implications of these findings are unambiguous and clear. They show that improving education can yield significant social benefits and can be a key policy tool in the drive to reduce crime.

Barriers to International Student Mobility Evidence From the Erasmus Program

In this article, we look at the barriers to international student mobility, with particular reference to the European Erasmus program. Much is known about factors that support or limit student mobility, but very few studies have made comparisons between participants and nonparticipants. Making use of a large data set on Erasmus and non-Erasmus students in seven European countries, we look at the barriers for participation. Results reveal the overall impact of financial barriers but suggest that it is personal barriers that help us to better differentiate between Erasmus and non-Erasmus students. The analysis suggests a two-pronged approach to increase participation: one focusing on better information and communication and the other stressing the benefits of Erasmus mobility.

Youth Crime and Education Expansion

Abstract We present new evidence on the causal impact of education on crime, by considering a large expansion of the UK post-compulsory education system that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The education expansion raised education levels across the whole education distribution and, in particular for our analysis, at the bottom end enabling us to develop an instrumental variable strategy to study the crime- education relationship. At the same time as the education expansion, youth crime fell, revealing a significant cross-cohort relationship between crime and education. The causal crime reducing effect of education is estimated to be negative and significant, and considerably bigger in (absolute) magnitude than ordinary least squares estimates. The education boost also significantly impacted other productivity-related economic variables (qualification attainment and wages), demonstrating that the incapacitation effect of additional time spent in school is not the sole driver of the results.

The Effect of Childhood Conduct Disorder on Human Capital

This paper estimates the longer-term effects of childhood conduct disorder on human capital accumulation and violent and criminal behavior later in life using data of Australian twins. We measure conduct disorder with a rich set of indicators based on diagnostic criteria from psychiatry. Using ordinary least squares and twin fixed effects estimation approaches, we find that early-age (pre-18) conduct disorder problems significantly affect both human capital accumulation and violent and criminal behavior over the life course. In addition, we find that conduct disorder is more deleterious if these behaviors occur earlier in life.

Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA models that form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited support for the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using univariate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variable. Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a multivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of the new legislation.

Intervention time series analysis of crime rates:The case of sentence reform in Virginia

Abstract We review the basic concepts of intervention analysis in the context of structural time series models and we apply this methodology to investigate the possible reduction in monthly crime rates reported from January 1984 up to and including December 2010 after Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing in January 1995. We find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. The robustness of our results is investigated with an automatic detection of breaks procedure as well as with analyses of quarterly rather than monthly data.

The effects of competition on the quality of primary schools in the Netherlands

We investigate the impact of competition between primary schools on the quality of education in the Netherlands. Do schools facing more competition in their neighbourhood perform better than schools facing less competition? As a measure of school quality, we look at the performance of pupils at the nationwide standard test (the so-called ‘Cito test’) in the final year of primary education. Since competition is likely to be endogenous to the quality of schools, we use the distance between the school and the city centre as an instrument for the level of competition faced by a school. Using a large range of data on pupil, school, and market characteristics, we find that school competition has a positive significant effect on pupil achievement, although the effect is very small. An increase in competition by one standard deviation (comparable to five additional schools in the market) increases pupil achievement as measured by the Cito test by 5% to 10% of the mean standard deviation, which is less than one point (on the Cito test scale from 500 to 550 points).

Structural Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates: The Impact of Sentence Reform in Virginia

We adopt a structural time series analysis to investigate the impact of parole abolition and sentence reform in Virginia on reported crime rates. The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony offences committed on or after January 1, 1995. To examine the impact of Virginias change in legislation on reported crime rates from 1995 onwards, we perform an intervention time series analysis based on structural time series models. We empirically find that the change in legislation has significantly reduced the burglary rates and to a lesser extent the murder rates in Virginia. For other violent crimes such as rape and aggravated assault the evidence of a significant reduction in crime rates is less evident or is not found. This empirical study for Virginia also provides an illustration of how an effective intervention time series analysis can be carried out in crime studies.

Evaluation of House Price Models Using an ECM Approach: The Case of the Netherlands

The research question of this paper is whether the Dutch housing market is overvalued or not. This is investigated by using different types of error correction models and by examining the impact of different variables that can explain house price changes in the Netherlands. The current financial crisis confirms the notion that developments in the residential property sector are important for the economy as a whole. For that reason it is important to fully understand the factors that affect the housing market. Therefore we need a long-run model approach that relates house prices to fundamentals. However the model should also be able to detect bubbles in the short run. As a first step, we look at the affordability of house prices and mortgage payments in order to check how well the housing market performs in the short run. In the medium to long-run, we estimate an error correction model relating prices to fundamentals, using variables like interest rate, labour income, financial assets of households, and household stock. The error correction model tests whether prices tend to revert to some equilibrium price level. We evaluate existing house price models for the Netherlands, which we use as a benchmark for comparison to our improved model. Finally, we try to forecast housing prices based on a few simple economic scenarios.

Does Twitter chatter matter? Online reviews and box office revenues

ABSTRACT With a rapid rise of text-based social media and online Word-of-Mouth (WOM) activity, millions of people express their thoughts and opinions on a variety of topics. Considering that nowadays WOM is a most influential source of information when guiding consumers’ choice and purchase decisions, in this paper we look at the relationship between Twitter messages (tweets) and cinema box office revenues. Using static and dynamic panel data regression approaches, we show that the frequency, sentiment and timing of tweets posted about a film are correlated to different extent with the movie’s box office revenues, with negative tweets being particularly damaging to the box office revenues. From a managerial perspective, this is important to know, such that film production companies and distributors can adjust their strategy accordingly.