Susan E. Howell

The Changing Face of the Environmental Coalition A Research Note

This research examines changes in the environmental coalition over the 1980s. During these years, concern over environmental problems has increased. How has the coalition favoring greater environmental protection changed? We use logistic regression to examine changing determinants of support for increased environmental spending. In brief, ideology, party identification, and age become less important as determinants, and education and urban residence become more important. The implications are discussed.

Complexities of the Gender Gap

Gender differences in political attitudes among whites arise from a variety of sources that may vary from issue to issue. Explanations based on gender-based social roles, basic value differences, socioeconomic status, and womens autonomy are tested in this study through an examination of both compositional and conditional effects. Compositional effects occur when men and women differ on an explanatory variable. Conditional effects occur when a variable has differential effects on the policy preferences of women and men. Using data from the 1996 National Election Study, OLS regression and logit results demonstrate the complex sources of gender gaps across issue areas. Some factors such as education have more of a liberalizing effect on women, while such factors as religiosity have more of a conservatizing effect on men. Overall, issue gender gaps arise both from womens cultural role and from womens increasing autonomy from men.

Racism, Cynicism, Economics, and David Duke

In this article, a model is proposed and tested that explains support for David Duke in three statewide Louisiana elections. The model, which is tested at the individual level, includes independent variables to reflect the impact of racism, cynicism toward government, economic factors, and a variety of demographic characteristics. Symbolic racial attitudes were by far the most influential factor in explaining Duke support in all three contests. This held true even when Duke faced conservative opponents and in the fact of controls for ideology and other confounding factors. The notion of the Duke vote as being a protest vote or an expression of antigovernment feelings was only borne out in the campaign against the incumbent. Modest economic effects were also observed.

Abortion Attitudes and the Louisiana Governor's Election

Research on the impact of the abortion issue on electoral outcomes has yielded mixed results. Although no such impact has been found at the national level, recent research indicates that abortion attitudes may be influential in state-level elections. Using survey data gathered in 1990 and 1991, the present research studies the influence of the abortion issue on the recent Louisiana gubernatorial race. Louisiana serves as an appropriate case for analysis due to the high visibility of controversial antiabortion legislation passed by the state legislature and the incumbent governors veto of that legislation. The findings indicate that the influence of the abortion issue on vote is conditioned by a number of factors, and that its impact is likely to be felt only under very specific circumstances.

The Behavioral Component of Changing Partisanship

This article examines the impact of prior voting behavior on future party identification using the CPS 1972-74-76 Panel Study. The probability of changed partisanship increases with the occurrence of defection among Republicans and Democrats, and with the occurrence of one-party voting among Independents. However, most partisan change is not preceded by nonreinforcing behavior. Several alternative models are offered which fit many of the remaining changers. The behavioral patterns that accompany the adoption of Independence are different from the patterns accompanying the adoption of partisanship in a manner confirming the notion of two dimensions in the party ID measure, partisanship and Independence.

Short term forces and changing partisanship

This research stemmed from the growing realization that party ID is not purely the long-term force originally conceptualized. The current conception is that it is a combination of a standing decision and responses to political events. The research addresses two questions: For what proportion of partisan changers is party ID a lagging, stable attachment to be changed only after a period of disaffection from ones party? What is the relative power of the various time 1 short term forces to alter party ID time 2?Among the short term forces, time 1voting behavior showed the strongest relationship to future change in ID. Criteria were established to identify changers whose change was based in past attitudes or behavior. For these criteria a typology was created to categorize the possible time 1 reasons and motivations for changing partisanship.The distribution of changers among categories illustrated that past voting behavior is the major instrument of partisan change. Only a small percentage were motivated by attitudes alone. Thus, overall the distribution confirmed the conception of party ID as lagging and stable. However, a substantial minority, 31 percent, showed no prior signs of partisan change.

SURVEY RESEARCH AND RACIALLY CHARGED ELECTIONS: THE CASE OF DAVID DUKE IN LOUISIANA

Accuracy in measuring vote intention has become a particular problem in elections involving candidates who take “conservative” positions on racial issues and who emphasize these issues in their campaigns. Consistent understatement of support for such candidates in preelection polls would seem to indicate a reluctance on the part of some survey respondents to honestly express their vote intention, perhaps due to the fear that their intended action might be interpreted as an expression of racism. This research, which utilizes surveys conducted during the 1991 Louisiana governors election in which David Duke was prominently featured, attempts to develop more accurate alternative measures of support for racially conservative candidates. The findings indicate that more accurate and valid vote intention measures can be constructed through the use of candidate image variables. The findings also call into question the practice of attempting to develop more accurate measures of vote intention through simple reallocation of undecided voters based solely on race.

Candidates and Attitudes: Revisiting the Question of Causality

This research explores the question of how people rationalize their choice of a candidate by changing other attitudes. Too often we use opinions to predict candidate choice. Many attitudes are created or changed to be consistent with a candidate. This paper takes a comprehensive look at the reciprocal effects on a wide range of opinions. Results indicate that, with the exception of party ID, the attitudes which influence choice are also the most likely consequences of choice. The key to determining the direction of causality is locating the most salient among all the attitudes and choices. A salient attitude or choice will be strong enough to influence many of the others. In this research a choice (or rejection) of Carter is actually a cause of other attitudes, not an effect. On the other hand, a choice of Reagan is best conceived of as a product, not a determinant, of other attitudes. In studying election attitudes we need to discover the focal points (salient attitudes) that change and create other opinions.

Partisan Conversion in the Northeast An Analysis of Split Ticket Voting, 1952-1976

Gerald Pomper and others who have studied realignment/ dealignment contend that the study of change in geographic subunits is necessary to understand change observed from a national perspective. The South has been the most common regional focus, yet the Northeast has experienced disproportionate partisan change as well. This research documents declining Republicanism in the Northeast since the early 1960s, draws parallels with the South, identifies social and political sources of that decline, and speculates about the future of partisan identification in the Northeast.

Chasing an elusive concept: Ideological identifications and candidate choice

This research examines the manner in which ideological identifications covary with candidate choice. Ideological ID is not purely an independent variable for evaluating candidates; evaluations of the candidates affect both individual identification and candidate placements. Prospective voters try to create a consistent cognitive system of candidate preference, ideological ID, and ideological placement of their candidate. Results demonstrate that candidate preference has a strong effect on less salient attitudes.