Susan H. Cannon

Wildfire-related debris-flow initiation processes, Storm King Mountain, Colorado

A torrential rainstorm on September 1, 1994 at the recently burned hillslopes of Storm King Mountain, CO, resulted in the generation of debris flows from every burned drainage basin. Maps (1:5000 scale) of bedrock and surficial materials and of the debris-flow paths, coupled with a 10-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of topography, are used to evaluate the processes that generated fire-related debris flows in this setting. These evaluations form the basis for a descriptive model for fire-related debris-flow initiation. The prominent paths left by the debris flows originated in 0- and 1st-order hollows or channels. Discrete soil-slip scars do not occur at the heads of these paths. Although 58 soil-slip scars were mapped on hillslopes in the burned basins, material derived from these soil slips accounted for only about 7% of the total volume of material deposited at canyon mouths. This fact, combined with observations of significant erosion of hillslope materials, suggests that a runoff-dominated process of progressive sediment entrainment by surface runoff, rather than infiltration-triggered failure of discrete soil slips, was the primary mechanism of debris-flow initiation. A paucity of channel incision, along with observations of extensive hillslope erosion, indicates that a significant proportion of material in the debris flows was derived from the hillslopes, with a smaller contribution from the channels. Because of the importance of runoff-dominated rather than infiltration-dominated processes in the generation of these fire-related debris flows, the runoff-contributing area that extends upslope from the point of debris-flow initiation to the drainage divide, and its gradient, becomes a critical constraint in debris-flow initiation. Slope-area thresholds for fire-related debris-flow initiation from Storm King Mountain are defined by functions of the form Acr(tanθ)3=S, where Acr is the critical area extending upslope from the initiation location to the drainage divide, and tanθ is its gradient. The thresholds vary with different materials.

Predicting the probability and volume of postwildfire debris flows in the intermountain western United States

Empirical models to estimate the probability of occurrence and volume of postwildfire debris flows can be quickly implemented in a geographic information system (GIS) to generate debris-flow hazard maps either before or immediately following wildfires. Models that can be used to calculate the probability of debris-flow production from individual drainage basins in response to a given storm were developed using logistic regression analyses of a database from 388 basins located in 15 burned areas located throughout the U.S. Intermountain West. The models describe debris-flow probability as a function of readily obtained measures of areal burned extent, soil properties, basin morphology, and rainfall from short-duration and low-recurrence-interval convective rainstorms. A model for estimating the volume of material that may issue from a basin mouth in response to a given storm was developed using multiple linear regression analysis of a database from 56 basins burned by eight fires. This model describes debris-flow volume as a function of the basin gradient, aerial burned extent, and storm rainfall. Applications of a probability model and the volume model for hazard assessments are illustrated using information from the 2003 Hot Creek fire in central Idaho. The predictive strength of the approach in this setting is evaluated using information on the response of this fire to a localized thunderstorm in August 2003. The mapping approach presented here identifies those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and thus provides information necessary to prioritize areas for postfire erosion mitigation, warnings, and prefire management efforts throughout the Intermountain West.

The Increasing Wildfire and Post-Fire Debris-Flow Threat in Western USA, and Implications for Consequences of Climate Change

In southern California and the intermountain west of the USA, debris flows generated from recently-burned basins pose significant hazards. Increases in the frequency and size of wildfires throughout the western USA can be attributed to increases in the number of fire ignitions, fire suppression practices, and climatic influences. Increased urbanization throughout the western USA, combined with the increased wildfire magnitude and frequency, carries with it the increased threat of subsequent debris-flow occurrence. Differences between rainfall thresholds and empirical debris-flow susceptibility models for southern California and the intermountain west indicate a strong influence of climatic and geologic settings on post-fire debris-flow potential. The linkages between wildfires, debris-flow occurrence, and global warming suggests that the experiences in the western United States are highly likely to be duplicated in many other parts of the world, and necessitate hazard assessment tools that are specific to local climates and physiographies.

Predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California

Timely hazard assessments are needed to assess post-fire debris flows that may impact communities located within and adjacent to recently burned areas. Implementing existing models for debris-flow probability and magnitude can be time-consuming because the geographic extent for applying the models is manually defined. In this study, a model is presented for predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion. This model is further calibrated to identify the geographic extent for applying post-fire hazard assessment models. Aerial photographs were used to map locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion and deposition in the San Gabriel Mountains. Terrain, burn severity, and soil characteristics expected to influence debris-flow erosion and deposition were calculated for each mapped location using 10-m resolution DEMs, GIS data for burn severity, and soil surveys. Multiple logistic regression was used to develop a model that predicts the probability of erosion as a function of channel slope, planform curvature, and the length of the longest upstream flow path. The model was validated using an independent database of mapped locations of debris-flow erosion and deposition and found to make accurate and precise predictions. The model was further calibrated by identifying the average percentage of the drainage network classified as erosion for mapped locations where debris flows transitioned from eroding to depositing material. The calibrated model provides critical information for consistent and timely application of post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment models and the ability to identify locations of post-fire debris-flow erosion.

Limiting the Immediate and Subsequent Hazards Associated with Wildfires

Wildfire is a unique natural hazard because it poses immediate threats to life and property as well as creating conditions that can lead to subsequent debris flows. In recent years, the immediate destructive force of wildfires has been decreased through better understanding of fire behavior. Lightning detection networks now identify the number and locations of this common ignition source. Measurements of wind speed, temperature, slope, fuel types and fire boundaries are routinely incorporated into models for fire spread, permitting real-time adjustments to fire-fighting strategies, thus increasing fire-fighting effectiveness.

Relations Between Rainfall and Postfire Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes for Emergency-Response Planning, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

5 Introduction 6 Previous Work 7 Postfire Debris Flows 7 Rainfall Conditions that Result in Postfire Debris Flows and Floods 8 Approach 9 Results 11 National Weather Service (NWS) Rainfall Forecasts for the San Gabriel Mountains 11 Debris-Flow and Flood Magnitudes 12 Storm Rainfall Data 13 Relations Between Rainfall and Debris Flow and Flood Magnitudes 13 Emergency Response Decision Chart 15 Limitations of Approach 18 Summary and Conclusions 18 References Cited 20

Timing of Susceptibility to Post-fire Debris Flows in the Western USA

Watersheds recently burned by wildfires can have an increased susceptibility to debris flow, although little is known about how long this susceptibility persists, and how it changes over time. We here use a compilation of 75 debris-flow response and fire-ignition dates, vegetation and bedrock class, rainfall regime, and initiation process from throughout the western U.S. to address these issues. The great majority (85 percent) of debris flows occurred within the first 12 months following wildfire, with 71 percent within the first six months. Seven percent of the debris flows occurred between 1 and 1.5 years after a fire, or during the second rainy season to impact an area. Within the first 1.5 years following fires, all but one of the debris flows initiated through runoff-dominated processes, and debris flows occurred in similar proportions in forested and non-forested landscapes. Geologic materials affected how long debris-flow activity persisted, and the timing of debris flows varied within different rainfall regimes. A second, later period of increased debris flow susceptibility between 2.2 and 10 years after fires is indicated by the remaining 8 percent of events, which occurred primarily in forested terrains and initiated largely through landslide processes. The short time period between fire and debris-flow response within the first 1.5 years after ignition, and the longer-term response between 2.2 and 10 years after fire, demonstrate the necessity of both rapid and long-term reactions by land managers and emergency-response agencies to mitigate hazards from debris flows from recently burned areas in the western U.S.