Susan Thorp

Financial literacy and retirement planning in Australia

Financial literacy and numeracy are closely tied. Furthermore, financial literacy has been shown to relate to important financial behaviors. This study examines the relationship between financial literacy and retirement planning using a measure that includes questions requiring numeracy. We implement a customized survey to a representative sample of 1,024 Australians. Overall, we find aggregate levels of financial literacy similar to comparable countries with the young, least educated, those not employed, and those not in the labor force most at risk. Our financial literacy measure is positively related to retirement planning in our sample.

Annuitization and asset allocation with HARA utility

A new explanation for the well-known reluctance of retirees to buy life annuities is due to Milevsky and Young (2002, 2003). Specifically, the decision to buy longevity insurance is largely irreversible, so that the real option to delay annuitization generally has value. Milevsky and Young analyticaly identify and numerically estimate the RODA in a setting of constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). This paper extends the analysis of Milevsky and Young to the case of hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA),the simplest representation of a consumption habit.The formula for the optimal timing of annuitization ias surprisingly simple, but yields only a myopic solution, that is, the precise date of annuitization cannot be ascertained in advance. The effect of increasing the subsistence consumption rate on the timing of annuity purchase is similar to the effect of increasing the curvature function of the utility function. As in the CRRA case studied by Milevsky and Young, delayed annuitization is associated with optimistic forward-looking estimates of the Sharpe ratio.

Retirement Investor Risk Tolerance in Tranquil and Crisis Periods: Experimental Survey Evidence

We conduct a choice experiment to investigate the impact of the financial crisis of 2008 on retirement saver investment choice and risk aversion. Analysis of estimated individual risk parameters shows a small increase in mean risk aversion between the relatively tranquil period of early 2007 and the crisis conditions of late 2008. Investment preferences of survey respondents, estimated using the scale-adjusted version of a latent class choice model, also change during the crisis. We identify age and income as important determinants of preference classes in both surveys and age is also identified as a key determinant of variability (scale). Young and low income individuals make choices that are more consistent with standard mean-variance analysis but older and higher income individuals react positively to both higher returns and increasing risk in returns. Overall we find a mild moderating of retirement investor risk tolerance in 2008.

Financial Competence and Expectations Formation: Evidence from Australia

We study the financial competence of Australian retirement savers using self-assessed and quantified measures. Responses to financial literacy questions show large variation and compare poorly with some international surveys. Basic and sophisticated financial literacy vary significantly with most demographics, self-assessed financial competence, income, superannuation accumulation and net worth. General numeracy scores are largely constant across gender, age, higher education and income. Financial competence also significantly affects expectations of stock market performance. Using a discrete choice model, we show that individuals with a higher understanding of risk, diversification and financial assets are more likely to assign a probability to future financial crises rather than expressing uncertainty.

Financial Competence, Risk Presentation and Retirement Portfolio Preferences

Financial regulators are weighing up the effectiveness of different templates for communicating investment risk to retirement savers since welfare depends on comprehension of risk information. We compare nine standard risk presentations using a discrete choice experiment where subjects choose between three retirement accounts. Switching between graphical or textual presentations, or between formats that emphasize benchmarks rather than return ranges or values at risk, affects predicted choices more than large changes in underlying risk. Innumerate individuals are more susceptible to presentation, and those with weak basic financial literacy are insensitive to increasing risk levels, regardless of presentation. Presentation effects are moderated but not eliminated as financial literacy improves.

Infrastructure: Real Assets and Real Returns

Little empirical work has been done on the return properties of infrastructure as an asset class despite increased allocations by institutional investors. Managers claim infrastructure investments offer real return benefits via a combination of monopolistic and defensive assets. We build a robust factor model of infrastructure returns and estimate the model using U.S. and Australian infrastructure and utility data. We find evidence of excess returns and inflation hedging, but not of defensive characteristics during equity market downturns. We also compare the performance of regulated infrastructure assets to option-based models designed to synthetically replicate infrastructure asset returns, and identify the regulatory risk premium (the premium for government regulation of infrastructure investments). We find that the returns from infrastructure have outperformed option-based replicating strategies over the period from 1995-2009 in Australia, for historical reasons. Finally, we suggest how improved defensive and inflation hedging characteristics can be obtained using a combination of inflation linked bonds and covered call strategies.

Decentralized investment management: an analysis of non-profit pension funds

We investigate delegated investment management in private pension accounts using data from Australian accumulation (superannuation) funds. In Australian non-profit pension funds, trustees choose investment managers on behalf of members. We find that funds with many delegated managers have higher risk-adjusted returns than those with few. However funds with 13 or less specialized managers show no improvement over funds with a single diversified manager. All do worse than a benchmark portfolio of asset-class indices. Further, by using random selection to mimic the choices of an uninformed individual choosing from the same menu of delegate managers as used by trustees, we show that returns from pension funds with large numbers of trustee-selected managers compare favorably with returns from randomly selected, equally weighted portfolios. However this improvement falls off quickly for funds with fewer trustee-selected managers, or when randomly selected portfolios are also diversified across asset classes. Results indicate that an uninformed individual following a naive diversification strategy would have done as well as most trustee boards in this sample.

Means‐Tested Public Pensions, Portfolio Choice and Decumulation in Retirement

Age Pension means‐testing buffers retired households against shocks to wealth and may influence decumulation patterns and portfolio allocations. Simulations from a simple model of optimal consumption and allocation strategies for a means‐tested retired household indicate that, relative to benchmark, eligible and near‐eligible households should optimally decumulate faster, and choose more risky portfolios, especially early in retirement. Empirical modelling of a Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia panel of pensioner households confirms a riskier portfolio allocation by wealthier retired households. Poorer pensioner households decumulate at around 5 per cent p.a. on average; however, better‐off households continue to add around 3 per cent p.a. to wealth, even when facing a steeper implicit tax rate on wealth.

Financial Engineering for Australian Annuitants

The past few decades have witnessed a global move towards private provision for retirement through individual defined contribution pensions at the expense of publicly provided and employer-sponsored defined benefit pensions. As a consequence, workers and retirees are becoming increasingly exposed to uncertainties in financial, labour and economic markets. The contributors to this book analyse the implications for retirement income policy, workers and retirees in view of the current climate of heightened exposure to scary markets. The implications of a broad range of scary market scenarios are presented, and novel solutions prescribed. Retirement incomes across a number of countries including the US, the UK, Japan and Australia are explored.

Choices and Constraints over Retirement Income Streams: Comparing Rules and Regulations

The new Simplified Superannuation regulations for Australian superannuation provide tax concessions to retirement income streams which comply with legislated minimum drawdown rules. We evaluate these new drawdown rules against four alternatives, including three formula-based ‘rules of thumb’ and the previous legislated minimum drawdown limits for allocated pensions. We find that the new regulations are a substantial improvement on the previous rules for allocated pensions and, when compared with the four formula-based rules, are a good compromise in terms of simplicity, a dequacy and risk. We also find that welfare is lower for most individuals who follow the Simplified Superannuation compared with welfare under an optimal path or a simple fixed percentage drawdown rule, but that outcomes could be improved through a further simplification of the rules.