Suzana Cavenaghi

Fertility and development: evidence from Brazil

Using microdata from the Brazilian demographic censuses of 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1991, aggregated into 518 consistently defined spatial units called microregions, we estimated fertility and mortality and constructed indicators of development and living conditions in the rural and urban areas of the microregions in each census. We then estimated cross-sectional and fixed-effects models to answer questions about the degree to which changes in these indicators are associated with changes in fertility and whether the relationship between fertility and development shifts through time. We found strong and consistent relationships between the decline in fertility and measurable changes in social and economic circumstances.

Reproductive rights of women and men in light of new legislation on voluntary sterilization in Brazil

O objetivo deste trabalho e analisar os impactos e as possiveis mudancas que a implementacao da nova legislacao sobre planejamento familiar teve nas praticas reprodutivas, especialmente na esterilizacao voluntaria, e observar se os diretos reprodutivos de mulheres e homens tem sido satisfeitos. A abordagem metodologica e baseada em uma pesquisa follow-up, aplicada a uma amostra de 159 individuos durante seis meses e em seis diferentes capitais de estado. Alem de verificar se os criterios estabelecidos na lei estavam sendo seguidos pelo setor publico de saude, nos analisamos o tempo de espera entre a solicitacao pela esterilizacao e a realizacao da cirurgia, utilizando analise de sobrevivencia. Adicionalmente, foram realizadas entrevistas com profissionais de saude, as quais sao muito elucidativas dos procedimentos adotados na pratica da esterilizacao. Os resultados mostram que, por diferentes motivos, a lei mudou pouco a pratica usual da esterilizacao e ainda nao satisfaz os direitos reprodutivos de mulheres e homens no Brasil.This paper aims to analyze the impacts and possible changes that the implementation of a new Brazilian family planning law has on reproductive practices, especially voluntary sterilization, and to determine whether mens and womens reproductive rights are being respected. The methodological approach is based on a six-month follow-up survey taken monthly, applied to a sample of 159 individuals in six contextually different State capitals. Besides verifying whether the health sector is complying with the criteria set by the law, we analyze the waiting time between the request for sterilization and the surgery itself, utilizing survival analysis. We also conduct interviews with health professionals, shedding light on the procedures adopted in the practice of sterilization. For various reasons, the law has produced little change in the usual practice of sterilization, besides failing to satisfy individual reproductive rights.

EMPIRICAL BAYES ESTIMATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC SCHEDULES FOR SMALL AREAS

In this article, we analyze empirical Bayes (EB) methods for estimating small-area rate schedules. We develop EB methods that treat schedules as vectors and use adaptive neighborhoods to keep estimates appropriately local. This method estimates demographic rates for local subpopulations by borrowing strength not only from similar individuals elsewhere but also from other groups in the same area and from regularities in schedules across locations. EB is substantially better than standard methods when rates have strong spatial and age patterns. We illustrate this method with estimates of age-specific fertility schedules for over 3,800 Brazilian municipalities.

Notas sobre os diferenciais educacionais e econômicos da fecundidade no Brasil

No Brasil, assim como em outros paises, com a fecundidade em transicao ou quase em seu final, a educacao e o rendimento se apresentam negativamente correlacionados com o nivel da fecundidade. Com a queda desta ultima, apesar de certa tendencia de convergencia nas taxas entre os grupos socioeconomicos, observa-se que a fecundidade ainda mantem um diferencial bastante elevado entre as mulheres pertencentes as categorias extremas destes grupos populacionais. Assim, apesar de a taxa de fecundidade de periodo (TFT) ter alcancado nivel abaixo da reposicao entre 2000 e 2010, chegando de fato a 1,9 filho por mulher em media, em 2010, conforme dados do Censo Demografico, nao e surpreendente encontrar variacoes importantes em torno dessa media nacional, diante da diversidade de comportamentos e diferencas no acesso aos meios contraceptivos e de interrupcao da gravidez. Em trabalhos anteriores, Berquo e Cavenaghi (2004; 2005) buscaram quantificar, localizar e qualificar os grupos que ja se encontravam com fecundidade abaixo do nivel de reposicao e aqueles que ainda estavam com taxas de fecundidade elevadas, no periodo de 1991 a 2000. Para atualizar estas informacoes e entender as tendencias recentes dos diferenciais de fecundidade no Brasil, as autoras desenvolvem o projeto Mapeamento socioeconomico e demografico dos regimes de fecundidade no Brasil em 2010,

Bayes plus Brass: Estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data

Estimates of fertility in small areas are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. In these circumstances estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required; they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas; and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step procedure for estimating total fertility in such circumstances and illustrate it by applying the method to data from the 2000 Brazilian Census for over 5,000 municipalities. Our proposed procedure first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods and then applies a new variant of Brasss P/F parity correction procedure that is robust to conditions of rapid fertility decline. Supplementary material at the project website (http://schmert.net/BayesBrass) will allow readers to replicate all the authors’ results in this paper using their data and programs.

Análise espacial dos acidentes de trânsito com vítimas fatais: comparação entre o local de residência e de ocorrência do acidente no Rio de Janeiro

The purpose of this study is to compare the spatial distribution of deaths by traffic accidents in the City of Rio de Janeiro in 2003, based on three different types of addresses: the victims’ residential addresses, address of accident, and that of death, by census track levels. The Kernel Estimation was utilized to estimate risk areas, in order to check for possible differences in the spatial patterns among different ways of classifying addresses. The results show that there are major differences in risk patterns according to address type. Especially, it shows that it is essential to know the place of the accident for clearly pointing out risk areas. This enables authorities to take informed actions in public policies aimed at reducing and preventing traffic accidents. Nonetheless, to enable such analyses in the future, administrative steps should be taken that will allow suitable information to be systematized and organized.

Estimativas e projeções populacionais para pequenos domínios: uma avaliação da precisão para municípios do Rio de Janeiro em 2000 e 2007

Demographic projections have been used more and more frequently to generate information for planning economic, social, political and environmental development in many different countries. But the broader the levels of geographic, demographic and temporal details required, the less precise are the projections. In small domains, such as municipalities, difficulties come up that include small populations, volatility of the data on growth patterns, poor quality of information, and others. The objective of this article is to evaluate several different methodologies of demographic projections for small domains, taking the municipalities of the State of Rio de Janeiro (of which the City of Rio de Janeiro is the Capital), Brazil, as a set of examples. The techniques studied are the apportionment method (AiBi), Duchesne’s relationship of cohorts and ratio correlations, used for comparisons with the results of the Federal Census of 2000 and with the Counting carried out in 2007. The comparative results with the Census of 2000 indicate that, on the average, the estimates and projections produced by applying the three methods show a precision level within acceptable margins, but the errors vary from -21.4% to 24.1%, and the projections tend to be underestimated. In contrast, the comparison of the results from the Counting of 2007 proved to be less precise. As described in this article, the method of ratio correlations, which uses symptomatic variables, was seen to be the best of the three methods used to evaluate the municipalities in the State of Rio de Janeiro.

Cambios en el perfil religioso de la población indígena del Brasil entre 1991 y 2010

El Brasil atraviesa una importante transicion en la composicion demografica de sus afiliaciones religiosas, que se observa en el conjunto de la poblacion, pero especialmente entre la poblacion indigena. El objetivo de este articulo es analizar los cambios religiosos que tuvieron lugar en la poblacion indigena del Brasil entre 1991 y 2010, a partir de una contextualizacion historica y con base en los microdatos de los censos demograficos. Los resultados muestran que la proporcion de indigenas catolicos —que constituyen la mayoria— presenta una tendencia decreciente a lo largo de los anos, mientras que la de evangelicos —que presentan una gran heterogeneidad de afiliaciones— registra un crecimiento constante. Tambien aumentaron las otras denominaciones y el numero de quienes se declaran sin religion. Evidentemente, el ritmo y las motivaciones de esa transicion religiosa son diferentes en los diversos segmentos de la poblacion. Este analisis de las dos ultimas decadas contribuye a la comprension de la dinamica religiosa y de las modificaciones cuantitativas en el porcentaje de catolicos y evangelicos, los dos mayores grupos religiosos, en el contexto de la pluralidad y la diversidad cultural de los pueblos nativos del Brasil.

Estimaciones y proyecciones poblacionales para pequeños dominios: una evaluación de la precisión para municipios de Río de Janeiro en el año 2000 y 2007

Demographic projections have been used more and more frequently to generate information for planning economic, social, political and environmental development in many different countries. But the broader the levels of geographic, demographic and temporal details required, the less precise are the projections. In small domains, such as municipalities, difficulties come up that include small populations, volatility of the data on growth patterns, poor quality of information, and others. The objective of this article is to evaluate several different methodologies of demographic projections for small domains, taking the municipalities of the State of Rio de Janeiro (of which the City of Rio de Janeiro is the Capital), Brazil, as a set of examples. The techniques studied are the apportionment method (AiBi), Duchesne’s relationship of cohorts and ratio correlations, used for comparisons with the results of the Federal Census of 2000 and with the Counting carried out in 2007. The comparative results with the Census of 2000 indicate that, on the average, the estimates and projections produced by applying the three methods show a precision level within acceptable margins, but the errors vary from -21.4% to 24.1%, and the projections tend to be underestimated. In contrast, the comparison of the results from the Counting of 2007 proved to be less precise. As described in this article, the method of ratio correlations, which uses symptomatic variables, was seen to be the best of the three methods used to evaluate the municipalities in the State of Rio de Janeiro.

Demographic estimates and projections for small domains: an evaluation of the precision for the municipalities in the State of Rio de Janeiro in 2000 and 2007

Demographic projections have been used more and more frequently to generate information for planning economic, social, political and environmental development in many different countries. But the broader the levels of geographic, demographic and temporal details required, the less precise are the projections. In small domains, such as municipalities, difficulties come up that include small populations, volatility of the data on growth patterns, poor quality of information, and others. The objective of this article is to evaluate several different methodologies of demographic projections for small domains, taking the municipalities of the State of Rio de Janeiro (of which the City of Rio de Janeiro is the Capital), Brazil, as a set of examples. The techniques studied are the apportionment method (AiBi), Duchesne’s relationship of cohorts and ratio correlations, used for comparisons with the results of the Federal Census of 2000 and with the Counting carried out in 2007. The comparative results with the Census of 2000 indicate that, on the average, the estimates and projections produced by applying the three methods show a precision level within acceptable margins, but the errors vary from -21.4% to 24.1%, and the projections tend to be underestimated. In contrast, the comparison of the results from the Counting of 2007 proved to be less precise. As described in this article, the method of ratio correlations, which uses symptomatic variables, was seen to be the best of the three methods used to evaluate the municipalities in the State of Rio de Janeiro.