Suzanna L. De Boef

The Dynamics of the Partisan Gender Gap

Gender differences in vote choice, opinion, and party identification have become a common feature of the American political landscape. We examine the nature and causes of gender differences in partisanship using a time series approach. We show that gender differences are pervasive—existing outside of the context of specific elections or issues—and that they are a product of the interaction of societal conditions and politics. We find that from 1979 to 2000, the partisan gender gap has grown when the political climate moved in a conservative direction, the economy deteriorated, and the percentage of economically vulnerable, single women increased. The gender gap is likely to be a continual feature of the American political landscape: one that shapes everything from elite political behavior to election outcomes.

The Dynamic Structure of Congressional Elections

We address three questions. First we ask to what degree elections to the U.S. House of Representatives may be understood to reflect the influence of current public opinion? This requires us to entertain models of House elections with incumbency effects as a dynamic system. We ask, second, how do the effects of exogenous influences of all sorts work their way into ultimate House composition? Third, we ask if some portion of the effects attributed to incumbency might not be simply these dynamics, reasserted effects of previous elections, in addition to the well-known advantages individual incumbents accrue? We estimate pooled models of state-level aggregate voting for the House. We add Policy Mood to the usual set of explanations as a means to specify the central focus of democratic theories of elections. We focus on how incumbency translates contemporaneous effects of the explanatory variables into dynamic effects and on how this translation differentially affects the various inputs to the system.

The Decline of the Death Penalty and the Discovery of Innocence: The Death Penalty in America

Since 1996, death sentences in America have declined more than 60 percent, reversing a generation-long trend toward greater acceptance of capital punishment. In theory, most Americans continue to support the death penalty. But it is no longer seen as a theoretical matter. Prosecutors, judges, and juries across the country have moved in large numbers to give much greater credence to the possibility of mistakes – mistakes that in this arena are potentially fatal. The discovery of innocence, documented through painstaking analyses of media coverage and with newly developed methods, has led to historic shifts in public opinion and to a sharp decline in the use of the death penalty by juries across the country. A social cascade, starting with legal clinics and innocence projects, has snowballed into a national phenomenon that may spell the end of the death penalty in America.

The Decline of the Death Penalty and the Discovery of Innocence: A Chronology of Innocence

Since 1996, death sentences in America have declined more than 60 percent, reversing a generation-long trend toward greater acceptance of capital punishment. In theory, most Americans continue to support the death penalty. But it is no longer seen as a theoretical matter. Prosecutors, judges, and juries across the country have moved in large numbers to give much greater credence to the possibility of mistakes – mistakes that in this arena are potentially fatal. The discovery of innocence, documented through painstaking analyses of media coverage and with newly developed methods, has led to historic shifts in public opinion and to a sharp decline in the use of the death penalty by juries across the country. A social cascade, starting with legal clinics and innocence projects, has snowballed into a national phenomenon that may spell the end of the death penalty in America.

The Decline of the Death Penalty and the Discovery of Innocence: Notes

1. Innocence and the death penalty debate 2. The death penalty in America 3. A chronology of innocence 4. The shifting terms of debate 5. Innocence, resonance, and old arguments made new again 6. Public opinion 7. The rise and fall of a public policy 8. Conclusion.