Swati R. Ghosh

East Asia in the aftermath: Was there a crunch?

This paper investigates whether there was a credit crunch in East Asia during the recent financial and economic crises. Motivated by widespread concern that, over and above any increases in real interest rates, corporates may have also faced credit rationing, we adopt an explicit disequilibrium framework for analyzing the behavior of real credit with a view to assessing whether the supply of, or demand for credit has been a binding constraint. The findings highlight the dynamics associated with a credit crunch. We find evidence of a »credit crunch« in all three crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, Thailand) in the period immediately following the crisis as the banking system distress deepened, and the supply of (real) credit declined. Thereafter, however, credit demand also fell sharply as economic recession took hold and corporate bankruptcies increased. By the end of the first quarter of 1998, therefore, the constraining factor was the demand for credit. We conclude that, beyond the initial crisis period, there is little evidence of a credit crunch at the aggregate level, although high real interest rates - and credit rationing of individual firms - may have continued to contribute to the difficulties of the corporate sector.

Macro-Prudential Policies to Mitigate Financial System Vulnerabilities

Macro-prudential policies aimed at mitigating systemic financial risks have become part of the policy toolkit in many emerging markets and some advanced countries. Their effectiveness and efficacy are not well-known, however. Using panel data regressions, we analyze how changes in balance sheets of some 2,800 banks in 48 countries over 2000–2010 respond to specific macro-prudential policies. Controlling for endogeneity, we find that measures aimed at borrowers––caps on debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios––and at financial institutions––limits on credit growth and foreign currency lending––are effective in reducing asset growth. Countercyclical buffers are little effective through the cycle, and some measures are even counterproductive during downswings, serving to aggravate declines, consistent with the ex-ante nature of macro-prudential tools.

Structural Vulnerabilities and Currency Crises

This paper examines the role of structural factors – governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure – as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows for interactions between the various explanatory variables. It is found that structural vulnerabilities play an important role in the occurrence of “deep” currency crises (those with a real GDP growth decline of at least 3 percentage points) and that there are complex interactions between these structural vulnerabilities and macroeconomic imbalances.

East Asian finance : the road to robust markets

This study analyzes the key issues and constraints - in terms of efficiency, access and safety and soundness - faced by East Asian countries in developing their financial markets which are at different stages of development, drawing on global experience. The study takes stock of the initiatives being undertaken at the regional level to foster greater financial integration as a means of deepening and diversifying financial markets, and on the policy issues that need to be addressed at the domestic level to deepen and diversify financial markets and to actually benefit from the actions that are being taken at the regional level.

Has the emergence of China hurt Asian exports

It is investigated as to whether the exports of manufactured products by the South Asian and South East Asian countries have been negatively affected by the rise of China. Using a panel data approach, it is found that increases in world market shares of China are statistically correlated with declines in world market shares for some Asian countries since 1994, but not before 1994.

Enhancing the efficiency of securities markets in East Asia

The authors explore the relative efficiency of stock markets across countries using newly available data on transactions costs and the quality of the informational environment of stock markets. These new measures are constructed from firm-level stock returns in a panel of 60 countries for the period 2000-04. The authors then develop a framework to understand the linkages between efficiency, liquidity, and their determinants. To give empirical content to the framework, they study the determinants of transactions costs and the quality of the informational environment. They find that some institutional arrangements-such as the availability of stock lending and short selling-and the openness of markets are associated with lower transactions costs. The authors also find that, although disclosure rules for directors and officers of listed firms are essential, the ability of shareholders to seek redress is more conducive to a better informational environment in stock markets. This in turn serves as the basis for the policy framework and recommendations for the East Asian region. In particular, the region needs to continue to strengthen the implementation and enforcement of corporate governance, to further enhance the market and institutional infrastructure, and focus on policy measures to foster a larger and more diversified investor base to continue to see gains in the efficiency of stock markets.

Global liquidity and external bond issuance in emerging markets and developing economies

Using the universe of all externally issued bonds by corporates and sovereigns in emerging and developing economies during 2000-14, this paper analyzes various issuance trends, including the unprecedented post-crisis surge. The paper focuses on external issuance at the country-industry and individual bond levels and finds that global factors matter greatly for emerging and developing economies issuance. A decrease in U.S. expected equity market (or interest rate) volatility, U.S. corporate credit spreads, and U.S. interbank funding costs and an increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (i) raise the odds that the monthly issuance volume of a country-industry is above its historical average; (ii) decrease individual bond yields and spreads; and (iii) raise bond maturities, after controlling for country pull factors, bond characteristics (for example, type of issuer, industry, and riskiness). Additionally, we document support that the risk-taking channel of exchange rate appreciation also operates for external bond issuance. Moreover, while the paper finds that country pull factors affect the impact of global factors, it does not find consistent evidence for this across the board. This result suggests that, during loose global funding conditions, flows are mostly driven by push factors and do not systematically discriminate between emerging and developing economies. Taken together, the findings suggest that although issuers might be able to benefit from benign international funding conditions, the large issuance volumes, currency risks, and high exposure to global factors could pose external and domestic challenges for policy makers, particularly when global cycles reverse.

Dealing with the Challenges of Macro Financial Linkages in Emerging Markets

The 2008 financial crisis has highlighted the challenges associated with global financial integration and emphasized the importance of macro financial linkages. In the financial sector, attention is being directed toward macro prudential regulations that are geared toward the stability of the financial system as a whole. The Third Basel Accord (Basel III) aims to dampen the pro-cyclicality of the financial sector and to reduce cross sectional systemic risks partly by introducing measures to address liquidity and issues of banks being too big to fail. In the macro arena, the facts that price stability was not sufficient to guarantee macroeconomic stability and that financial imbalances developed despite low inflation and small output gaps have highlighted the need for additional tools (macro prudential policies) to complement monetary policy in countercyclical management. Emerging markets face different conditions and have key structural features that can have a bearing on the relevance and efficacy of the measures. The chapters in this volume discuss the challenges of dealing with macro financial linkages and explore the policy toolkit available for dealing with systemic risks with particular reference to emerging markets. This report is organized as follows: chapter one is adapting macro prudential approaches to emerging and developing economies; chapter two is adapting micro prudential regulation for emerging markets; chapter three presents capital flow volatility and systemic risk in emerging markets: the policy toolkit; chapter four presents monetary policy and macro prudential regulation: whither emerging markets; chapter five deals with macro prudential policies to mitigate financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets; chapter six presents sailing through the global financial storm; and chapter seven presents operation of macro prudential policy measures.

Korea’s Financial Sector Reforms

Korea has made great strides in its financial sector reforms, but manychallenges remain. Most importantly these concern the deep links between corporate and financial sector reforms and the large fiscal resources required to resolve the current under capitalization of banks. This paper draws on work of other World Bank colleagues, in particular Ira Lieberman and Bill Mako. It also draws on information from the Korea government, in particular, Korean Government’s Economic Reform Progress Report. Helpful comments were received from Jose De Luna Martinez and participants in the conference, Asia: An Analysis of Financial Crisis, Chicago, October 8-10, 1998, jointly organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and International Monetary Fund. The opinions expressed are the authors’ own, however, and do not necessarily reflect those of the World Bank. For comments, please contact Stijn Claessens, e-mail: CClaessens@worldbank.org fax: (202) 522-2031.

Banking Flows and Financial Crisis -- Financial Interconnectedness and Basel Iii Effects

This paper examines the factors that determine banking flows from advanced economies to emerging markets. In addition to the usual determinants of capital flows in terms of global push and local pull factors, it examines the role of bilateral factors, such as growth differentials and economic size, as well as contagion factors and measures of the depth in financial interconnectedness between lenders and borrowers. The analysis finds profound differences across regions. In particular, in spite of the severe impact of the global financial crisis, banking flows in emerging Europe stand out as a more stable region than is the case in other developing regions. Assuming that the determinants of banking flows remain unchanged in the presence of structural changes, the authors use these results to explore the short-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on banking flows to emerging markets.