Naotaka Sugawara

Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean

This paper studies the causes and consequences of informality and applies the analysis to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. It starts with a discussion on the definition and measures of informality, as well as on the reasons why widespread informality should be of great concern. The paper analyzes informalitys main determinants, arguing that informality is not single-caused but results from the combination of poor public services, a burdensome regulatory regime, and weak monitoring and enforcement capacity by the state. This combination is especially explosive when the country suffers from low educational achievement and features demographic pressures and primary production structures. Using cross-country regression analysis, the paper evaluates the empirical relevance of each determinant of informality. It then applies the estimated relationships to most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in order to assess the country-specific relevance of each proposed mechanism.

The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region has been hit by a crisis on multiple fronts. Countries in ECA are facing major, interrelated, external macro-financial shocks. The first is the global growth slowdown leading to falling export market demand. In addition, the prospects for inflows of remittances to low-income countries have been downgraded as economic activity in migrant host countries has declined. The second is the financial deleveraging by major banks and other financial institutions in developed economies, which has markedly reduced the availability, and increased the cost, of external finance across public, corporate, and financial sectors. The third is the recent commodity price changes, which have involved a reversal of much of the commodity price boom of 2007 and 2008. The main objective of the study is to understand the impact of these macroeconomic shocks on household well-being. In particular, it seeks to understand the key macroeconomic shocks confronted by the region and the impact of such shocks on household welfare, including the effect on household income flows, consumption levels, and liabilities. It will also assess possible strategies to cope with the crisis and manage the adverse social impact.

From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries

This paper examines the effect of stabilization funds on the volatility of government expenditure in resource-rich countries. Using a panel data set of 68 resource-rich countries over 1988–2012, the results find that the existence of stabilization funds contributes to smoothing government expenditure. The spending volatility in countries that have established such funds is found to be 13 percent lower in the main estimation, and similar impacts are found in robustness tests. The analysis also shows that political institutions and fiscal rules are significant factors in reducing the expenditure volatility, while highlighting the roles of the size of economy, diversified exports, real sector management, and financial markets.

Regulating Capital Flows at Both Ends: Does it Work?

This paper examines whether cross-border capital flows can be regulated by imposing capital account restrictions (CARs) in both source and recipient countries, as was originally advocated by John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White. To this end, we use data on bilateral cross-border bank flows from 31 source to 76 recipient (advanced and emerging market) countries over 1995–2012, and combine this information with a new and comprehensive dataset on various outflow and inflow related capital controls and prudential measures in these countries. Our findings suggest that CARs at either end can significantly influence the volume of cross-border bank flows, with restrictions at both ends associated with a larger reduction in flows. We also find evidence of cross-border spillovers whereby inflow restrictions imposed by countries are associated with larger flows to other countries. These findings suggest a useful scope for policy coordination between source and recipient countries, as well as among recipient countries, to better manage potentially disruptive flows.

Credit-Less Recoveries: Neither a Rare Nor an Insurmountable Challenge

This paper examines why some countries experience economic recoveries without pick-up of bank credit (credit-less) and how different this recovery pattern is from the case where credit is increased as an economy recovers (credit-with). To answer these questions, the paper uses quarterly data covering 96 countries and identifies 272 recovery episodes. It finds that more than 25 percent of all recoveries are credit-less and around 45 percent of all credit-less recoveries occurred in 2009-10. It also finds that output and investment growth tends to be lower in credit-less events but, by eight quarters after the trough date, the gap between credit-less and credit-with episodes is mostly exhausted. Results of the probit estimations show that the size of the downturn and the extent of external adjustment are associated with the likelihood of credit-less recoveries. Moreover, fiscal loosening tends to be related to credit-less events while monetary easing and a countrys decision to seek an International Monetary Fund-supported program reduce the probability of credit-less recoveries. Finally, the model suggests that many countries in the Europe and Central Asia region were likely to experience credit-less recoveries following the global financial crisis in 2008/09. What is more worrisome for them is the fact that they are facing another negative external shock.

Stress-testing croatian households with debt -- implications for financial stability

The purpose of this paper is to stress test the resilience of Croatian households with debt to economic shocks. The shocks not only impact a households welfare, but also increase the probability of loan default. As a result, there is a direct link between these stress-testing exercises and financial stability risks. The authors find that very few households are at risk as a result of the shocks experienced over the past few years; new vulnerable households represent about 2 percent of all households, 6 percent of households with debt, and 2-3 percent of aggregate banking system assets. This suggests that household over-indebtedness in Croatia is unlikely to become a drag on aggregate economic activity and that financial stability risks remain manageable. One caveat should be noted. Some 27-31 percent of households with debt, representing 8-9 of banking system assets, are vulnerable even before being subjected to an economic shock. Since NPLs were low before the global financial crisis, it can be argued that banks knew something about some of these households that is not captured by household budget surveys. It follows that the calculations in this paper should primarily focus on the increased vulnerability of households as a result of shocks and are likely to represent an upper bound to the financial stability risks faced by Croatia on account of household indebtedness.

Banking Flows and Financial Crisis -- Financial Interconnectedness and Basel Iii Effects

This paper examines the factors that determine banking flows from advanced economies to emerging markets. In addition to the usual determinants of capital flows in terms of global push and local pull factors, it examines the role of bilateral factors, such as growth differentials and economic size, as well as contagion factors and measures of the depth in financial interconnectedness between lenders and borrowers. The analysis finds profound differences across regions. In particular, in spite of the severe impact of the global financial crisis, banking flows in emerging Europe stand out as a more stable region than is the case in other developing regions. Assuming that the determinants of banking flows remain unchanged in the presence of structural changes, the authors use these results to explore the short-term implications of Basel III capital regulations on banking flows to emerging markets.

Financial Integration in Emerging Europe: an Enviable Development Opportunity with Tail Risks

This paper draws on the experience of emerging Europe and argues that foreign capital is an enviable development opportunity with tail risks. Financial integration and foreign savings supported growth in the EU12 and EU candidate countries. We argue that this was possible because of EU membership (actual or potential) and its role as an anchor for expectations. In contrast, the eastern partnership states did not benefit from the foreign savings-growth link. But financial integration also led to a buildup of vulnerabilities and now exposes emerging Europe to prolonged uncertainty and financial deleveraging due to eurozone developments. Nonetheless, we believe that external imbalances should not be eradicated—nor should emerging Europe pursue a policy of self-insurance. Instead, what we refer to as an acyclical fiscal policy stance could serve to counterbalance private sector behavior. Going forward, a more proactive macroprudential policy will also be needed to limit financial system vulnerabilities when external imbalances are large.

Would liberalization lead to epidemic cocaine consumption

This article uses cross-country data to estimate the potential effect of drastic reductions in the price of cocaine on the share of the population that consumes this drug. In order to identify movements along the cocaine consumption/demand function, this article instruments for cocaine prices with variables that affect the supply of cocaine. Liberalization of drug policies would produce an increase in the prevalence of cocaine consumption. However, the quantitative evidence presented here suggests that, even if substantial, this increase would not amount to epidemic cocaine use.

A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space

This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200 countries over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal space grouped into four categories: debt sustainability, balance sheet vulnerability, external and private sector debt related risks as potential causes of contingent liabilities, and market access. The authors illustrate potential applications of the database by analyzing developments in fiscal space across three time frames: over the past quarter century; during financial crises; and during oil price plunges. The main results are as follows. First, fiscal space had improved in many countries before the global financial crisis. In advanced economies, following severe deteriorations during the crisis, many indicators of fiscal space have virtually returned to levels in the mid-2000s. In contrast, fiscal space has shrunk in many emerging market and developing economies since the crisis. Second, financial crises tend to coincide with deterioration in multiple indicators of fiscal space, but they are often followed by reduced reliance on short-term borrowing. Finally, fiscal space narrows in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies during oil price plunges but later expands, often because of procyclical fiscal tightening and, in some episodes, a recovery in oil prices.