Sylvain Barbot

Seismic and geodetic evidence for extensive, long-lived fault damage zones

During earthquakes, slip is often localized on preexisting faults, but it is not well understood how the structure of crustal faults may contribute to slip localization and energetics. Growing evidence suggests that the crust along active faults undergoes anomalous strain and damage during large earthquakes. Seismic and geodetic data from the Calico fault in the eastern California shear zone reveal a wide zone of reduced seismic velocities and effective elastic moduli. Using seismic traveltimes, trapped waves, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations, we document seismic velocities reduced by 40%‐ 50% and shear moduli reduced by 65% compared to wall rock in a 1.5-km-wide zone along the Calico fault. Observed velocity reductions likely represent the cumulative mechanical damage from past earthquake ruptures. No large earthquake has broken the Calico fault in historic time, implying that fault damage persists for hundreds or perhaps thousands of years. These fi ndings indicate that faults can affect rock properties at substantial distances from primary fault slip surfaces, and throughout much of the seismogenic zone, a result with implications for the amount of energy expended during rupture to drive cracking and yielding of rock and development of fault systems.

Postseismic deformation due to the Mw 6.0 2004 Parkfield earthquake: Stress-driven creep on a fault with spatially variable rate-and-state friction parameters

[1] We investigate the coseismic and postseismic deformation due to the M w 6.0 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake. We produce coseismic and postseismic slip models by inverting data from an array of 14 continuous GPS stations from the SCIGN network. Kinematic inversions of postseismic GPS data over a time period of 3 years show that afterslip occurred in areas of low seismicity and low coseismic slip, predominantly at a depth of ~5 km. Inversions suggest that coseismic stress increases were relaxed by predominantly aseismic afterslip on a fault plane. The kinetics of afterslip is consistent with a velocity-strengthening friction generalized to include the case of infinitesimal velocities. We performed simulations of stress-driven creep using a numerical model that evaluates the time-dependent deformation due to coseismic stress changes in a viscoelastoplastic half-space. Starting with a coseismic slip distribution, we compute the time-dependent evolution of afterslip on a fault plane and the associated displacements at the GPS stations. Data are best explained by a rate-strengthening model with frictional parameter (a - b) = 7 x 10 -3 , at a high end of values observed in laboratory experiments. We also find that the geodetic moment due to creep is a factor of 100 greater than the cumulative seismic moment of aftershocks. The rate of aftershocks in the top 10 km of the seismogenic zone mirrors the kinetics of afterslip, suggesting that postearthquake seismicity is governed by loading from the nearby aseismic creep. The San Andreas fault around Parkfield is deduced to have large along-strike variations in rate-and-state frictional properties. Velocity strengthening areas may be responsible for the separation of the coseismic slip in two distinct asperities and for the ongoing aseismic creep occurring between the velocity-weakening patches after the 2004 rupture.

Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine: Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle

Earthquake Model Shakedown The Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault in California experiences Magnitude 6.0 earthquakes at a surprisingly regular interval—roughly every 22 years. This area is one of the most well studied fault segments in the world, yet computational models often struggle to integrate the wealth of observational data with theoretical predictions. Barbot et al. (p. 707; see the Perspective by Segall) constructed a dynamic model of a fault segment which, when integrated with previous observations, reproduces the behavior of the Parkfield segment over the entire earthquake cycle. Because the model is based on realistic fault physics, it not only explains the distribution of small earthquakes but also the recurrence interval of large earthquakes and the amount of geodetic strain accumulated postseismically. It also reveals how smaller earthquakes can influence this regions semiregular earthquake cycle. Computational models predict the long-term recurrence of earthquakes along a segment of the San Andreas Fault. Advances in observational, laboratory, and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power. To explore that possibility, we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault. The model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude (Mw) 6.0 main shocks—including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004—and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle. Such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins.

Postseismic deformation following the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan: Implication for lower-crust rheology

On 1999 September 21, the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake ruptured a segment of the Chelungpu Fault, a frontal thrust fault of the Western Foothills of Taiwan. The stress perturbation induced by the rupture triggered a transient deformation across the island, which was well recorded by a wide network of continuously operating GPS stations. The analysis of more than ten years of these data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of postseismic displacements, with relaxation times varying by a factor of more than ten, and large cumulative displacements at great distances, in particular along the Longitudinal Valley in eastern Taiwan, where relaxation times are also longer. We show that while afterslip is the dominant relaxation process in the epicentral area, viscoelastic relaxation is needed to explain the pattern and time evolution of displacements at the larger scale. We model the spatiotemporal behavior of the transient deformation as the result of afterslip on the decollement that extends downdip of the Chelungpu thrust, and viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and in the mid-crust below the Central Range. We construct a model of deformation driven by coseismic stress change where afterslip and viscoelastic flow are fully coupled. The model is compatible with the shorter relaxation times observed in the near field, which are due to continued fault slip, and the longer characteristic relaxation times and the reversed polarity of vertical displacements observed east of the Central Range. Our preferred model shows a viscosity of 0.5–1 X 10^(19) Pa s at lower-crustal depths and 5 X 10^(17) Pa s in the mid-crust below the Central Range, between 10 and 30 km depth. The low-viscosity zone at mid-crustal depth below the Central Range coincides with a region of low seismicity where rapid advection of heat due to surface erosion coupled with underplating maintain high temperatures, estimated to be between 300°C and 600°C from the modeling of thermo-chronology and surface heat flow data.

The 2014 Mw 6.1 South Napa earthquake : a unilateral rupture with shallow asperity and rapid afterslip

The Mw 6.1 South Napa earthquake occurred near Napa, California, on 24 August 2014 at 10:20:44.03 (UTC) and was the largest inland earthquake in northern California since the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. The first report of the earthquake from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) indicates a hypocentral depth of 11.0 km with longitude and latitude of (122.3105° W, 38.217° N). Surface rupture was documented by field observations and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imaging (Brooks et al., 2014; Hudnut et al., 2014; Brocher et al., 2015), with about 12 km of continuous rupture starting near the epicenter and extending to the northwest. The southern part of the rupture is relatively straight, but the strike changes by about 15° at the northern end over a 6 km segment. The peak dextral offset was observed near the Buhman residence with right‐lateral motion of 46 cm, near the location where the strike of fault begins to rotate clockwise (Hudnut et al., 2014). The earthquake was well recorded by the strong‐motion network operated by the NCEDC, the California Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). There are about 12 sites within an epicentral distance of 15 km that had relatively good azimuthal coverage (Fig. 1). The largest peak ground velocity (PGV) of nearly 100  cm/s was observed on station 1765, which is the closest station to the rupture and lies about 3 km east of the northern segment (Fig. 1). The ground deformation associated with the earthquake was also well recorded by the high resolution COSMO–SkyMed (CSK) satellite and Sentinel-1A satellite, providing independent static observations.

Evidence for postseismic deformation of the lower crust following the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquake

Previous studies have shown that postseismic relaxation following the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield, CA, earthquake is dominated by afterslip. However, we show that some fraction of the afterslip inferred from kinematic inversion to have occurred immediately below the seismically ruptured area may in fact be a substitute for viscous postseismic deformation of the lower crust. Using continuous GPS and synthetic aperture radar interferometry, we estimate the relative contribution of shallow afterslip (at depth less than 20km) and deeper seated deformation required to account for observed postseismic surface displacements. Exploiting the possible separation in space and time of the time series of displacements predicted from viscoelastic relaxation, we devise a linear inversion scheme that allows inverting jointly for the contribution of afterslip and viscoelastic flow as a function of time. We find that a wide range of models involving variable amounts of viscoelastic deformation can fit the observations equally well provided that they allow some fraction of deep-seated deformation (at depth larger than ∼20 km). These models require that the moment released by postseismic relaxation over 5 years following the earthquake reached nearly as much as 200% of the coseismic moment. All the models show a remarkable complementarity of coseismic and shallow afterslip distributions. Some significant deformation at lower crustal depth (20–26 km) is required to fit the geodetic data. The condition that postseismic deformation cannot exceed complete relaxation places a constraint on the amount of deep seated deformation. The analysis requires an effective viscosity of at least ~10^(18) Pa s of the lower crust (assuming a semi-infinite homogeneous viscous domain). This deep-seated deformation is consistent with the depth range of tremors which also show a transient postseismic response and could explain as much as 50% of the total postseismic geodetic moment (the remaining fraction being due to afterslip at depth shallower than 20 km). Lower crustal postseismic deformation could reflect a combination of localized ductile deformation and aseismic frictional sliding.

The 2012 Mw 8.6 Wharton Basin sequence: A cascade of great earthquakes generated by near-orthogonal, young, oceanic mantle faults

We improve constraints on the slip distribution and geometry of faults involved in the complex, multisegment, Mw 8.6 April 2012 Wharton Basin earthquake sequence by joint inversion of high-rate GPS data from the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr), teleseismic observations, source time functions from broadband surface waves, and far-field static GPS displacements. This sequence occurred under the Indian Ocean, ∼400 km offshore Sumatra. The events are extraordinary for their unprecedented rupture of multiple cross faults, deep slip, large strike-slip magnitude, and potential role in the formation of a discrete plate boundary between the Indian and Australian plates. The SuGAr recorded static displacements of up to ∼22 cm, along with time-varying arrivals from the complex faulting, which indicate that the majority of moment release was on young, WNW trending, right-lateral faults, counter to initial expectations that an old, lithospheric, NNE trending fracture zone played the primary role. The new faults are optimally oriented to accommodate the present-day stress field. Not only was the greatest moment released on the younger faults, but it was these that sustained very deep slip and high stress drop (>20 MPa). The rupture may have extended to depths of up to 60 km, suggesting that the oceanic lithosphere in the northern Wharton Basin may be cold and strong enough to sustain brittle failure at such depths. Alternatively, the rupture may have occurred with an alternative weakening mechanism, such as thermal runaway.

Effect of a compliant fault zone on the inferred earthquake slip distribution

[1] We present a new semi-analytic method to evaluate the deformation due to a screw dislocation in arbitrarily heterogeneous and/or anisotropic elastic half plane. The method employs integral transformations to reduce the governing partial differential equations to the integral Fredholm equation of the second kind. Dislocation sources, as well as spatial perturbations in the elastic properties are modeled using equivalent body forces. The solution to the Fredholm equation is obtained in the Fourier domain using a method of successive over-relaxation, and is mapped into the spatial domain using the inverse Fast Fourier Transform. We apply this method to investigate the effect of a soft damage zone around an earthquake fault on the co-seismic displacement field, and on the earthquake slip distribution inferred from inversions of geodetic data. In the presence of a kilometer-wide damage zone with a reduction of the effective shear modulus of a factor of 2, inversions that assume a laterally homogeneous model tend to underestimate the amount of slip in the middle of the seismogenic layer by as much as 20%. This bias may accentuate the inferred maxima in the seismic moment release at depth between 3–6 km suggested by previous studies of large strike-slip earthquakes.

The Parkfield tremors reveal slow and fast ruptures on the same asperity

The deep extension of the San Andreas Fault is believed to be creeping, but the recent observations of tectonic tremors from these depths indicate a complex deformation style. In particular, an isolated tremor source near Parkfield has been producing a sequence of low-frequency earthquakes that indicates an uncommon mechanism of stress accumulation and release. The tremor pattern regularly oscillated between three and six days from mid-2003 until it was disrupted by the 2004 magnitude 6.0 Parkfield earthquake. After that event, the tremor source ruptured only about every three days, but over the next two years it gradually returned to its initial alternating recurrence pattern. The mechanism that drives this recurrence pattern is unknown. Here we use physics-based models to show that the same tremor asperity—the region from which the low-frequency earthquakes radiate—can regularly slip in slow and fast ruptures, naturally resulting in recurrence intervals alternating between three and six days. This unusual slip behaviour occurs when the tremor asperity size is close to the critical nucleation size of earthquakes. We also show that changes in pore pressure following the Parkfield earthquake can explain the sudden change and gradual recovery of the recurrence intervals. Our findings suggest a framework for fault deformation in which the same asperity can release tectonic stress through both slow and fast ruptures.

The mechanism of partial rupture of a locked megathrust: The role of fault morphology

Assessment of seismic hazard relies on estimates of how large an area of a tectonic fault could potentially rupture in a single earthquake. Vital information for these forecasts includes which areas of a fault are locked and how the fault is segmented. Much research has focused on exploring downdip limits to fault rupture from chemical and thermal boundaries, and along-strike barriers from subducted structural features, yet we regularly see only partial rupture of fully locked fault patches that could have ruptured as a whole in a larger earthquake. Here we draw insight into this conundrum from the 25 April 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) earthquake. We invert geodetic data with a structural model of the Main Himalayan thrust in the region of Kathmandu, Nepal, showing that this event was generated by rupture of a decollement bounded on all sides by more steeply dipping ramps. The morphological bounds explain why the event ruptured only a small piece of a large fully locked seismic gap. We then use dynamic earthquake cycle modeling on the same fault geometry to reveal that such events are predicted by the physics. Depending on the earthquake history and the details of rupture dynamics, however, great earthquakes that rupture the entire seismogenic zone are also possible. These insights from Nepal should be applicable to understanding bounds on earthquake size on megathrusts worldwide.