Sylvia H. Vetter

Greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural food production to supply Indian diets : Implications for climate change mitigation

Highlights • Highest GHG emissions from food production are from rice and ruminant products.• Highest GHG emissions from consumption are from rice and livestock products.• Consumption choice can either increase or decrease total GHG emissions.

Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research.

Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology.

Greenhouse gas emissions and water footprints of typical dietary patterns in India

Agriculture is a major contributor to Indias environmental footprint, particularly through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock and fresh water used for irrigation. These impacts are likely to increase in future as agriculture attempts to keep pace with Indias growing population and changing dietary preferences. Within India there is considerable dietary variation, and this study therefore aimed to quantify the GHG emissions and water usage associated with distinct dietary patterns. Five distinct diets were identified from the Indian Migration Study – a large adult population sample in India – using finite mixture modelling. These were defined as: Rice & low diversity, Rice & fruit, Wheat & pulses, Wheat, rice & oils, Rice & meat. The GHG emissions of each dietary pattern were quantified based on a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach, and water use was quantified using Water Footprint (WF) data. Mixed-effects regression models quantified differences in the environmental impacts of the dietary patterns. There was substantial variability between diets: the rice-based patterns had higher associated GHG emissions and green WFs, but the wheat-based patterns had higher blue WFs. Regression modelling showed that the Rice & meat pattern had the highest environmental impacts overall, with 0.77 (95% CI 0.64–0.89) kg CO2e/capita/day (31%) higher emissions, 536 (95% CI 449–623) L/capita/day (24%) higher green WF and 109 (95% CI 85.9–133) L/capita/day (19%) higher blue WF than the reference Rice & low diversity pattern. Diets in India are likely to become more diverse with rising incomes, moving away from patterns such as the Rice & low diversity diet. Patterns such as the Rice & meat diet may become more common, and the environmental consequences of such changes could be substantial given the size of Indias population. As global environmental stress increases, agricultural and nutrition policies must recognise the environmental impacts of potential future dietary changes.

Projecting Soil C Under Future Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (Modeling)

Abstract Soil carbon sequestration can be estimated from field to global scale using numerical soil/ecosystem models. In this chapter, we describe the structure and development of models that have been widely used at international level, from simple models that include carbon only to models that include descriptions of the dynamics of a range of nutrients. We also present examples of the application from field to global scale of different models to answer a range of different questions on the impact of land use and climate changes on soil carbon sequestration. A full discussion of the impact of soil carbon modeling on political and socioeconomical aspects is included to emphasize the need of a close interaction between model developers, researchers, land owners/users and policy makers to ensure the development of robust approaches to climate change, food security and soil protection. Whatever type of models are used to meet future challenges, it is important that they continue to be tested using appropriate data, and that they are used in regions and for land uses where they have been developed and validated.

Environmental effects of shifting to healthy diets in India: a nationally representative study

Abstract Background Food production is a major driver of environmental change, while dietary risks are the leading cause of global disease burden. Dietary shifts in high-income countries can provide benefits for both health and the environment. However, little is known about such options in low-income and middle-income countries, which often face high burdens of both undernutrition and diet-related chronic disease. As an example, we assessed the changes in greenhouse gas emissions, water footprints, and land use, from shifting current nationally representative patterns of Indian food consumption to healthy diets. Methods Dietary data were derived from a national 2011–12 household expenditure survey. We modelled the changes in consumption of 36 food groups necessary to meet Indian dietary guidelines. These changes were combined with food-specific data for greenhouse gases emissions, calculated using the Cool Farm Tool, water footprints, from the Water Footprint Network, and land use adapted from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. Findings Shifts to healthy diets nationally required a minor increase in calories (3%), with larger increases in fruit (12%) and vegetables (20%). Percentage of calories from fat and protein were adequate. Meeting healthy guidelines marginally increased environmental footprints, between 1–4% for greenhouses gas emissions, water footprint, and land use. However, these national averages masked substantial variation within subpopulations. For example, shifting to healthy diets among those at risk of undernutrition would require increases of 11% in greenhouse gas emissions, 28% in water footprint, and 39% in land use, whereas decreasing environmental effects from those who currently consume above recommended calories. Environmental effects also varied substantially between six major Indian subregions. Interpretation Providing healthy diets in India, a country of 1·3 billion, might only necessitate slight increases in environmental footprints. However, major efforts could be required to prevent widespread business-as-usual shifts to caloric-intensive and environmentally intensive affluent diets. Funding Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health; Wellcome Trust (Our Planet, Our Health programme).