T. Chatterton

Modelling SO2 concentration at a point with statistical approaches

In this paper, the results obtained by inter-comparing several statistical techniques for modelling SO2 concentration at a point such as neural networks, fuzzy logic, generalised additive techniques and other recently proposed statistical approaches are reported. The results of the inter-comparison are the fruits of collaboration between some of the partners of the APPETISE project funded under the Framework V Information Societies and Technologies (IST) programme. Two different cases for study were selected: the Siracusa industrial area, in Italy, where the pollution is dominated by industrial emissions and the Belfast urban area, in the UK, where domestic heating makes an important contribution. The different kinds of pollution (industrial/urban) and different locations of the areas considered make the results more general and interesting. In order to make the inter-comparison more objective, all the modellers considered the same datasets. Missing data in the original time series was filled by using appropriate techniques. The inter-comparison work was carried out on a rigorous basis according to the performance indices recommended by the European Topic Centre on Air and Climate Change (ETC/ACC). The targets for the implemented prediction models were defined according to the EC normative relating to limit values for sulphur dioxide. According to this normative, three different kinds of targets were considered namely daily mean values, daily maximum values and hourly mean values. The inter-compared models were tested on real cases of poor air quality. In the paper, the inter-compared techniques are ranked in terms of their capability to predict critical episodes. A ranking in terms of their predictability of the three different targets considered is also proposed. Several key issues are illustrated and discussed such as the role of input variable selection, the use of meteorological data, and the use of interpolated time series. Moreover, a novel approach referred to as the technique of balancing the training pattern set, which was successfully applied to improve the capability of ANN models to predict exceedences is introduced. The results show that there is no single modelling approach, which generates optimum results in terms of the full range of performance indices considered. In view of the implementation of a warning system for air quality control, approaches that are able to work better in the prediction of critical episodes must be preferred. Therefore, the artificial neural network prediction models can be recommended for this purpose. The best forecasts were achieved for daily averages of SO2 while daily maximum and hourly mean values are difficult to predict with acceptable accuracy.

Multiple models to inform climate change policy: a pragmatic response to the 'beyond the ABC' debate

We have followed with interest the debate in this journal between Shove (2010; 2011) and Whitmarsh & colleagues (2011) on contrasting theoretical approaches and representations of pro-environmental behaviour and social change, and of the potential, rationale and merit of interdisciplinarity or integration. In this commentary, we offer a pragmatic response to the issues being debated from the perspective of policymakers concerned with near-term reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This response is informed by the recent experience of one of us (Chatterton) during a year-long Research Council UK (RCUK) Energy Programme Fellowship as a social scientist based in the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). The title of this Fellowship, “Individuals’ and Communities’ Energy Behaviour”, reflects the dominant conceptualisation of behaviour among policymakers as elaborated by Shove (2010), as well as the prevailing interest within government in the potential for behaviour change to contribute towards policy goals. ‘Behaviour change’ policies are being promoted as an attractive alternative to the more established approaches of legislation, regulation, and taxation (p4, Dolan et al. 2010). The current UK government’s coalition agreement argues for “shunning the bureaucratic levers of the past and finding intelligent ways to encourage, support and enable people to make better choices for themselves” (pp7-8, HMG 2010b). Supporting institutional developments include the creation of the Cabinet Office’s Behavioural Insights Team in 2010, and the recent House of Lords Science & Technology Select Committee’s inquiry into “the use of behaviour change interventions to achieve policy goals” (p88, House_of_Lords 2011). Here, we are primarily concerned with climate change mitigation as the policy goal, itself often framed within broader sustainability objectives.

The ‘Four Dimensions of Behaviour’ framework: a tool for characterising behaviours to help design better interventions

This paper sets out the rationale and structure of a tool for assisting policy-makers and practitioners to understand behavioural challenges and open up thinking on the design of effective ‘behaviour change’ interventions. The ‘Four Dimensions of Behaviour’ (4DB) framework is based on the theoretical and empirical research in a range of policy domains including transport and pro-environmental behaviour more generally. The 4DB framework characterises multifaceted behaviours along dimensions of actor, domain, durability and scope. Its application in workshop or structured settings opens up diverse and non-exclusive discussion on designing interventions to match salient behavioural characteristics. The use of the 4DB framework in the transport domain is demonstrated for travel behaviours of interest to policy-makers using examples of buying plug-in vehicles (PiVs), commuting by bicycle, eco-driving and making business trips by train.

Co-managing carbon and air quality: pros and cons of local sustainability initiatives

This paper reports the pros and cons of co-management (i.e. concerted actions towards climate change and air quality management) through local sustainability initiatives using three case studies, each encompassing the planning and management issues at local government levels. Case study I is policy-based and reports the outcome of a consultation exercise while case studies II and III have greater scientific bearing. These case studies pave the way for development of a more integrated Climate Change Strategy Action Plan at local scales, specifically regarding policies on emissions sources from transportation and decentralised energy. They highlight the merits and the trade-offs of implementing local scale co-management practices, using a more integrated planning framework than what is currently under offer. We recognise that delivery of such ambitious, cross-cutting agenda may be impeded, primarily owing to limited expertise in assessing the synergies and the expected outcomes from cross-fertility between these two arenas. This calls for a step-change through more cohesive, cross-disciplinary policy frameworks, going beyond the local administrative spheres to maximise the co-management potentials while mitigating the wider environmental impacts.

Regional collaborative urban air quality management: case studies across Great Britain

Almost a third of local authorities across Great Britain have declared air quality management areas (AQMAs), which are the focus of concerted actions to reduce unacceptably high concentrations of prescribed air pollutants by a date specified in regulations. Local government has been provided with guidance from central governments on the use of modelling and monitoring tools, as part of a local air quality review and assessment process. Use of the various tools and the interpretation of the findings have not been consistent across Great Britain. As a result, AQMAs are neither uniform in shape nor in the decision-making processes leading to their declaration. Local authorities have collaborated in many parts of the country, using working groups to share experiences and resources. This paper examines groupings from three regions of Great Britain; London, the West Midlands and the former-Avon area of Southwest England. An examination of the methods and tools used collaboratively has illustrated variation in local air quality management decision-making and AQMA designation. This has implications for delivering the necessary improvements to achieve the UKs national air quality objectives.

Air quality action planning: why do barriers to remediation in local air quality management remain?

UK local air quality action planning has failed to remediate exceedances of air quality targets, particularly for nitrogen dioxide, which are widespread and persistent a decade after the first local action plans were drafted. This paper is relevant to a range of administrations charged with managing air quality. Using a literature review and local authority survey, it explores barriers to improving air quality, i.e. resource limitations, absence of local authority powers, and a lack of intra-governmental co-operation and inter-governmental co-ordination. It concludes that the causes of these inefficiencies are flawed subsidiarity and devolved responsibility decoupled from the powers necessary to implement required actions. Challenging opportunities to reconceptualise air quality action planning to protect public health are suggested.

Air quality action plans in the UK: An overview and evaluation of process and practice

Local Air Quality Management is an effects-based process by which local authorities are required to review and assess their local air quality in relation to health-based air quality objectives. Where it is predicted that objectives will not be met and members of the public are exposed to elevated levels of pollutants, authorities are required to declare Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) and subsequently develop and implement Air Quality Action Plans (AQAPs) to improve air quality to acceptable levels. The majority of AQMAs (>90%) are predominantly transport related, and as such Local Transport Plans (LTPs) will be critical to the successful implementation of measures to improve air quality. LTPs are currently moving into the second round of a 5-year cycle of planning, with Plans being submitted to Government in July 2005 to cover the 2006-2011 period. In order to align AQAP and LTP more closely, and to reduce the number of policies and plans required of councils, local authorities with air quality problems arising from transport emissions have the freedom to include AQAPs within their LTP. LTP’s now include air quality as one of the four priorities. This move to integrate the two processes is seen largely as positive, but it is still unknown how the two processes (which still work to different timescales and report to different government departments) will be implemented in practice. This paper will provide an overview of the air quality action planning and local transport planning processes and then review three case study local authorities to examine the practice of air quality action planning in the context of air quality, organisational and political challenges.

Techniques for the inference of mileage rates from MOT data

Abstract Mathematical and computational techniques are developed for the processing and analysis of annual Ministry of Transport roadworthiness (MOT) test data that the UK Department for Transport has placed in the public domain. First, techniques are given that clean erroneous records and a linking procedure is provided that permits the inference of an individual vehicles mileage between consecutive tests. Methods are then developed that analyse aggregate mileage totals, as a function of vehicle age, class and geography. The inference of aggregate mileage rates as a function of time is then considered.

Air quality management in Auckland, New Zealand

Air quality in New Zealand is perceived by many to be very good. This is facilitated by low population density, geographical isolation and a maritime climate. The climate and weather of New Zealand is also affected by large scale wind systems which promote westerly winds and aid dispersion. Despite favourable conditions, air pollution is a problem in many urban centres in New Zealand. Although industrial emissions contribute to pollution, emissions from domestic and traffic sources are significant. Outdoor burning and domestic fires are common, and are a major source of air pollutants and complaints. National Environmental Standards for Ambient Air Quality were introduced in 2004 but these are unlikely to be achieved in a number of locations including Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city, where traffic emissions are the major source of air pollution. Auckland’s population is 1.3 million people (almost one third of the national total). The city covers an area approximately equal in size to London. Poorly developed public transport services and urban sprawl have resulted in reliance on private vehicles, and ownership rates in New Zealand are among the highest in the world. In conjunction with an aged vehicle fleet and severe traffic congestion, the resulting air pollution has become a significant issue in Auckland. This paper considers the process of air quality management in New Zealand, illustrated by the particular problems systemic to Auckland. Policy responses include a Regional Land Transport Strategy with health protection as a key objective. However, it is far from certain whether these will successfully deliver cleaner air, and further national guidance and additional transport focussed regulations may be needed to achieve the air quality improvements in Auckland necessary to meet the national Standards.

Outcomes of the first round of local authority air quality Review and Assessments under the UK's air quality strategy.

In 1997, the UK government instigated the practice of Local Air Quality Management (LAQM) in the UK. This process is based on local authorities undertaking Review and Assessments of air quality within their areas. The first round of Review and Assessments have now been completed and represents the most extensive and coordinated analysis of air pollution ever undertaken in the UK, and probably in Europe. This paper takes a broad look at the outcomes of this process so far and identifies some of the key areas where lessons have/can be learnt both about patterns of air pollution in the UK and about the framework for investigating these that has been implemented under the LAQM regime. The process has led to a much higher number of local authorities finding problems with air pollution than initially expected. It has also challenged many assumptions about the significance of various pollutants and their sources.