T W Meade

Aspirin in the primary and secondary prevention of vascular disease: collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised trials.

Summary Background Low-dose aspirin is of definite and substantial net benefit for many people who already have occlusive vascular disease. We have assessed the benefits and risks in primary prevention. Methods We undertook meta-analyses of serious vascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death) and major bleeds in six primary prevention trials (95 000 individuals at low average risk, 660 000 person-years, 3554 serious vascular events) and 16 secondary prevention trials (17 000 individuals at high average risk, 43 000 person-years, 3306 serious vascular events) that compared long-term aspirin versus control. We report intention-to-treat analyses of first events during the scheduled treatment period. Findings In the primary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a 12% proportional reduction in serious vascular events (0·51% aspirin vs 0·57% control per year, p=0·0001), due mainly to a reduction of about a fifth in non-fatal myocardial infarction (0·18% vs 0·23% per year, p<0·0001). The net effect on stroke was not significant (0·20% vs 0·21% per year, p=0·4: haemorrhagic stroke 0·04% vs 0·03%, p=0·05; other stroke 0·16% vs 0·18% per year, p=0·08). Vascular mortality did not differ significantly (0·19% vs 0·19% per year, p=0·7). Aspirin allocation increased major gastrointestinal and extracranial bleeds (0·10% vs 0·07% per year, p<0·0001), and the main risk factors for coronary disease were also risk factors for bleeding. In the secondary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a greater absolute reduction in serious vascular events (6·7% vs 8·2% per year, p<0.0001), with a non-significant increase in haemorrhagic stroke but reductions of about a fifth in total stroke (2·08% vs 2·54% per year, p=0·002) and in coronary events (4·3% vs 5·3% per year, p<0·0001). In both primary and secondary prevention trials, the proportional reductions in the aggregate of all serious vascular events seemed similar for men and women. Interpretation In primary prevention without previous disease, aspirin is of uncertain net value as the reduction in occlusive events needs to be weighed against any increase in major bleeds. Further trials are in progress. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, and the European Community Biomed Programme.BACKGROUND Low-dose aspirin is of definite and substantial net benefit for many people who already have occlusive vascular disease. We have assessed the benefits and risks in primary prevention. METHODS We undertook meta-analyses of serious vascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death) and major bleeds in six primary prevention trials (95,000 individuals at low average risk, 660,000 person-years, 3554 serious vascular events) and 16 secondary prevention trials (17,000 individuals at high average risk, 43,000 person-years, 3306 serious vascular events) that compared long-term aspirin versus control. We report intention-to-treat analyses of first events during the scheduled treatment period. FINDINGS In the primary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a 12% proportional reduction in serious vascular events (0.51% aspirin vs 0.57% control per year, p=0.0001), due mainly to a reduction of about a fifth in non-fatal myocardial infarction (0.18%vs 0.23% per year, p<0.0001). The net effect on stroke was not significant (0.20%vs 0.21% per year, p=0.4: haemorrhagic stroke 0.04%vs 0.03%, p=0.05; other stroke 0.16%vs 0.18% per year, p=0.08). Vascular mortality did not differ significantly (0.19%vs 0.19% per year, p=0.7). Aspirin allocation increased major gastrointestinal and extracranial bleeds (0.10%vs 0.07% per year, p<0.0001), and the main risk factors for coronary disease were also risk factors for bleeding. In the secondary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a greater absolute reduction in serious vascular events (6.7%vs 8.2% per year, p<0.0001), with a non-significant increase in haemorrhagic stroke but reductions of about a fifth in total stroke (2.08%vs 2.54% per year, p=0.002) and in coronary events (4.3%vs 5.3% per year, p<0.0001). In both primary and secondary prevention trials, the proportional reductions in the aggregate of all serious vascular events seemed similar for men and women. INTERPRETATION In primary prevention without previous disease, aspirin is of uncertain net value as the reduction in occlusive events needs to be weighed against any increase in major bleeds. Further trials are in progress. FUNDING UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, and the European Community Biomed Programme.

Long-term effect of aspirin on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: 20-year follow-up of five randomised trials

BACKGROUND High-dose aspirin (≥500 mg daily) reduces long-term incidence of colorectal cancer, but adverse effects might limit its potential for long-term prevention. The long-term effectiveness of lower doses (75-300 mg daily) is unknown. We assessed the effects of aspirin on incidence and mortality due to colorectal cancer in relation to dose, duration of treatment, and site of tumour. METHODS We followed up four randomised trials of aspirin versus control in primary (Thrombosis Prevention Trial, British Doctors Aspirin Trial) and secondary (Swedish Aspirin Low Dose Trial, UK-TIA Aspirin Trial) prevention of vascular events and one trial of different doses of aspirin (Dutch TIA Aspirin Trial) and established the effect of aspirin on risk of colorectal cancer over 20 years during and after the trials by analysis of pooled individual patient data. RESULTS In the four trials of aspirin versus control (mean duration of scheduled treatment 6·0 years), 391 (2·8%) of 14 033 patients had colorectal cancer during a median follow-up of 18·3 years. Allocation to aspirin reduced the 20-year risk of colon cancer (incidence hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 0·60-0·96, p=0·02; mortality HR 0·65, 0·48-0·88, p=0·005), but not rectal cancer (0·90, 0·63-1·30, p=0·58; 0·80, 0·50-1·28, p=0·35). Where subsite data were available, aspirin reduced risk of cancer of the proximal colon (0·45, 0·28-0·74, p=0·001; 0·34, 0·18-0·66, p=0·001), but not the distal colon (1·10, 0·73-1·64, p=0·66; 1·21, 0·66-2·24, p=0·54; for incidence difference p=0·04, for mortality difference p=0·01). However, benefit increased with scheduled duration of treatment, such that allocation to aspirin of 5 years or longer reduced risk of proximal colon cancer by about 70% (0·35, 0·20-0·63; 0·24, 0·11-0·52; both p<0·0001) and also reduced risk of rectal cancer (0·58, 0·36-0·92, p=0·02; 0·47, 0·26-0·87, p=0·01). There was no increase in benefit at doses of aspirin greater than 75 mg daily, with an absolute reduction of 1·76% (0·61-2·91; p=0·001) in 20-year risk of any fatal colorectal cancer after 5-years scheduled treatment with 75-300 mg daily. However, risk of fatal colorectal cancer was higher on 30 mg versus 283 mg daily on long-term follow-up of the Dutch TIA trial (odds ratio 2·02, 0·70-6·05, p=0·15). INTERPRETATION Aspirin taken for several years at doses of at least 75 mg daily reduced long-term incidence and mortality due to colorectal cancer. Benefit was greatest for cancers of the proximal colon, which are not otherwise prevented effectively by screening with sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy. FUNDING None.

Fibrinolytic activity, clotting factors, and long-term incidence of ischaemic heart disease in the Northwick Park heart study

Fibrinolytic activity (FA) was measured by dilute blood clot lysis time at entry to the Northwick Park Heart Study in 1382 white men aged 40-64, of whom 179 subsequently experienced episodes of ischaemic heart disease during a mean follow-up period of 16.1 years. There was a significant interaction between age and low FA (p = 0.02) with respect to ischaemic heart disease: a difference of one standard deviation in FA was associated with a difference of about 40% in ischaemic heart disease risk (p = 0.002) in those aged 40-54 at entry. The FA association remained after adjusting for plasma fibrinogen. High fibrinogen concentrations themselves were also associated with ischaemic heart disease, as was high factor VII activity with fatal events. Low FA in younger men may exert a long-term influence by impairing the removal of fibrin deposits that contribute to atherogenesis. Low FA appears to be a leading determinant of ischaemic heart disease in younger men and methods of enhancing fibrinolytic activity, whether by life-style changes or pharmacologically, should be considered.

Effect of daily aspirin on risk of cancer metastasis: a study of incident cancers during randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND Daily aspirin reduces the long-term incidence of some adenocarcinomas, but effects on mortality due to some cancers appear after only a few years, suggesting that it might also reduce growth or metastasis. We established the frequency of distant metastasis in patients who developed cancer during trials of daily aspirin versus control. METHODS Our analysis included all five large randomised trials of daily aspirin (≥75 mg daily) versus control for the prevention of vascular events in the UK. Electronic and paper records were reviewed for all patients with incident cancer. The effect of aspirin on risk of metastases at presentation or on subsequent follow-up (including post-trial follow-up of in-trial cancers) was stratified by tumour histology (adenocarcinoma vs other) and clinical characteristics. FINDINGS Of 17,285 trial participants, 987 had a new solid cancer diagnosed during mean in-trial follow-up of 6·5 years (SD 2·0). Allocation to aspirin reduced risk of cancer with distant metastasis (all cancers, hazard ratio [HR] 0·64, 95% CI 0·48-0·84, p=0·001; adenocarcinoma, HR 0·54, 95% CI 0·38-0·77, p=0·0007; other solid cancers, HR 0·82, 95% CI 0·53-1·28, p=0·39), due mainly to a reduction in proportion of adenocarcinomas that had metastatic versus local disease (odds ratio 0·52, 95% CI 0·35-0·75, p=0·0006). Aspirin reduced risk of adenocarcinoma with metastasis at initial diagnosis (HR 0·69, 95% CI 0·50-0·95, p=0·02) and risk of metastasis on subsequent follow-up in patients without metastasis initially (HR 0·45, 95% CI 0·28-0·72, p=0·0009), particularly in patients with colorectal cancer (HR 0·26, 95% CI 0·11-0·57, p=0·0008) and in patients who remained on trial treatment up to or after diagnosis (HR 0·31, 95% CI 0·15-0·62, p=0·0009). Allocation to aspirin reduced death due to cancer in patients who developed adenocarcinoma, particularly in those without metastasis at diagnosis (HR 0·50, 95% CI 0·34-0·74, p=0·0006). Consequently, aspirin reduced the overall risk of fatal adenocarcinoma in the trial populations (HR 0·65, 95% CI 0·53-0·82, p=0·0002), but not the risk of other fatal cancers (HR 1·06, 95% CI 0·84-1·32, p=0·64; difference, p=0·003). Effects were independent of age and sex, but absolute benefit was greatest in smokers. A low-dose, slow-release formulation of aspirin designed to inhibit platelets but to have little systemic bioavailability was as effective as higher doses. INTERPRETATION That aspirin prevents distant metastasis could account for the early reduction in cancer deaths in trials of daily aspirin versus control. This finding suggests that aspirin might help in treatment of some cancers and provides proof of principle for pharmacological intervention specifically to prevent distant metastasis. FUNDING None.

Short-term effects of daily aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality, and non-vascular death: Analysis of the time course of risks and benefits in 51 randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND Daily aspirin reduces the long-term risk of death due to cancer. However, the short-term effect is less certain, especially in women, effects on cancer incidence are largely unknown, and the time course of risk and benefit in primary prevention is unclear. We studied cancer deaths in all trials of daily aspirin versus control and the time course of effects of low-dose aspirin on cancer incidence and other outcomes in trials in primary prevention. METHODS We studied individual patient data from randomised trials of daily aspirin versus no aspirin in prevention of vascular events. Death due to cancer, all non-vascular death, vascular death, and all deaths were assessed in all eligible trials. In trials of low-dose aspirin in primary prevention, we also established the time course of effects on incident cancer, major vascular events, and major extracranial bleeds, with stratification by age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS Allocation to aspirin reduced cancer deaths (562 vs 664 deaths; odds ratio [OR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·76-0·96, p=0·008; 34 trials, 69,224 participants), particularly from 5 years onwards (92 vs 145; OR 0·63, 95% CI 0·49-0·82, p=0·0005), resulting in fewer non-vascular deaths overall (1021 vs 1173; OR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78-0·96, p=0·003; 51 trials, 77,549 participants). In trials in primary prevention, the reduction in non-vascular deaths accounted for 87 (91%) of 96 deaths prevented. In six trials of daily low-dose aspirin in primary prevention (35,535 participants), aspirin reduced cancer incidence from 3 years onwards (324 vs 421 cases; OR 0·76, 95% CI 0·66-0·88, p=0·0003) in women (132 vs 176; OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·59-0·94, p=0·01) and in men (192 vs 245; OR 0·77, 95% CI 0·63-0·93, p=0·008). The reduced risk of major vascular events on aspirin was initially offset by an increased risk of major bleeding, but effects on both outcomes diminished with increasing follow-up, leaving only the reduced risk of cancer (absolute reduction 3·13 [95% CI 1·44-4·82] per 1000 patients per year) from 3 years onwards. Case-fatality from major extracranial bleeds was also lower on aspirin than on control (8/203 vs 15/132; OR 0·32, 95% CI 0·12-0·83, p=0·009). INTERPRETATION Alongside the previously reported reduction by aspirin of the long-term risk of cancer death, the short-term reductions in cancer incidence and mortality and the decrease in risk of major extracranial bleeds with extended use, and their low case-fatality, add to the case for daily aspirin in prevention of cancer. FUNDING None.

Seasonal variations of plasma fibrinogen and factor VII activity in the elderly: winter infections and death from cardiovascular disease

There are approximately 20,000 excess deaths from cardiovascular disease each winter in England and Wales. The reasons for the excess have not been fully elucidated. For one year, we studied 96 men and women aged 65-74 living in their own homes in order to examine seasonal variation in plasma fibrinogen and factor VII clotting activity (FVIIc), and to investigate relationships with infection and other cardiovascular-disease risk factors. Both fibrinogen and FVIIc plasma values were greater in winter with estimated winter-summer differences (confidence intervals) of 0.13 (0.05-0.20) g/L for fibrinogen and 4.2 (1.2-7.1)% of standard for FVIIc. These differences could account for 15% and 9% increases in ischaemic heart disease risk in winter respectively. After adjustment for confounding by season, fibrinogen was strongly related to neutrophil count (p < 0.0001), C-reactive protein (p < 0.0001), alpha 1-antichymotrypsin (p < 0.0001), and self-reported cough (p < 0.0001) and coryza (p = 0.0004), but not to ambient temperature. Therefore, we suggest that seasonal variation in fibrinogen might be induced by winter respiratory infections via activation of the acute phase response. Seasonal variations in the cardiovascular risk factors fibrinogen and FVIIc provide further possible explanations for the marked seasonal variation in death from ischaemic heart disease and stroke in the elderly.

Fetal and infant growth and cardiovascular risk factors in women.

Abstract Objective: To examine whether cardiovascular risk factors in women are related to fetal and infant growth. Design: Follow up study of women born 1923-30 whose birth weights and weights at one year were recorded. Setting: Hertfordshire. Subjects: 297 women born and still living in East Hertfordshire. Main outcome measures: Plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during a standard oral glucose tolerance test; fasting plasma proinsulin and 32-33 split proinsulin concentrations; blood pressure; fasting serum total, low density lipoprotein and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and apolipoprotein A I and B concentrations; and plasma fibrinogen and factor VII concentrations. Results: Fasting plasma concentrations of glucose, insulin, and 32-33 split proinsulin fell with increasing birth weight (P=0.04, P=0.002, and P=0.0002 respectively, when current body mass index was allowed for). Glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after an oral glucose load showed similar trends (P=0.03 and P=0.02). Systolic blood pressure, waist:hip ratio, and serum triglyceride concentrations also fell with increasing birth weight (P=0.08, P=0.07, and P=0.07 respectively), while serum high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations rose (P=0.04). At each birth weight women who currently had a higher body mass index had higher levels of risk factors. Conclusion: In women, as in men, reduced fetal growth leads to insulin resistance and the associated disorders: raised blood pressure and high serum triglyceride and low serum high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. The highest values of these coronary risk factors occur in people who were small at birth and become obese. In contrast with men, low rates of infant growth did not predict levels of risk factors in women. Key messages Key messages They have increased levels of cardiovascular risk factors associated with insulin resistance The highest levels of these risk factors are in people who were small at birth and obese as adults Unlike in men, low rates of growth in infancy are not linked to coronary heart disease in women

Characteristics affecting fibrinolytic activity and plasma fibrinogen concentrations.

As part of a study to determine the extent to which the haemostatic system is implicated in the onset of clinically manifest ischaemic heart disease, characteristics influencing fibrinolytic activity (FA) and plasma fibrinogen concentrations were examined in 1601 men aged 18-64 and 707 women aged 18-59 in several occupational groups in North-west London. In men FA noticeably decreased till the age of about 58, when there was a small rise. In women a small increase in FA between 18 and about 40 was followed by a slightly larger fall between 40 and 59. There was a pronounced negative association of FA with obesity. FA was significantly less in smokers than non-smokers, though the effect was not large. FA increased with alcohol consumption. FA in men appeared to be greatest in the lower social classes, and men on night shift had poorer FA than those on day work. FA was greater in women using oral contraceptives than in those not using these preparations. In both sexes FA increased with exercise, but there were no associations between any of the characteristics studied and the increase. Plasma fibrinogen concentrations increase with age and obesity, are higher in smokers than non-smokers, and fall with alcohol consumption. In women the concentrations are higher in those using oral contraceptives. The general epidemiology of FA and plasma fibrinogen concentrations suggests that they may well be implicated in the pathogenesis of ischaemic heart disease.

Low back pain of mechanical origin: randomised comparison of chiropractic and hospital outpatient treatment.

OBJECTIVE--To compare chiropractic and hospital outpatient treatment for managing low back pain of mechanical origin. DESIGN--Randomised controlled trial. Allocation to chiropractic or hospital management by minimisation to establish groups for analysis of results according to initial referral clinic, length of current episode, history, and severity of back pain. Patients were followed up for up two years. SETTING--Chiropractic and hospital outpatient clinics in 11 centres. PATIENTS--741 Patients aged 18-65 who had no contraindications to manipulation and who had not been treated within the past month. INTERVENTIONS--Treatment at the discretion of the chiropractors, who used chiropractic manipulation in most patients, or of the hospital staff, who most commonly used Maitland mobilisation or manipulation, or both. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Changes in the score on the Oswestry pain disability questionnaire and in the results of tests of straight leg raising and lumbar flexion. RESULTS--Chiropractic treatment was more effective than hospital outpatient management, mainly for patients with chronic or severe back pain. A benefit of about 7% points on the Oswestry scale was seen at two years. The benefit of chiropractic treatment became more evident throughout the follow up period. Secondary outcome measures also showed that chiropractic was more beneficial. CONCLUSIONS--For patients with low back pain in whom manipulation is not contraindicated chiropractic almost certainly confers worthwhile, long term benefit in comparison with hospital outpatient management. The benefit is seen mainly in those with chronic or severe pain. Introducing chiropractic into NHS practice should be considered.

Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies.

Summary Background Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling. Methods In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125 222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51 441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136 226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6. Findings The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele ≥0·04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34·3% (95% CI 30·4–38·2) and of interleukin 6 by 14·6% (10·7–18·4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7·5% (5·9–9·1) and of fibrinogen by 1·0% (0·7–1·3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3·4% (1·8–5·0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes. Interpretation Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease. Funding British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; UK National Institute of Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; BUPA Foundation.