Jackie A. Cooper

Reductions in all-cause, cancer, and coronary mortality in statin-treated patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: a prospective registry study.

Aims To examine the changes in coronary, all-cause, and cancer mortality in patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) before and after lipid-lowering therapy with statins. Methods and results A total of 3382 patients (1650 men) aged <80 years were recruited from 21 lipid clinics in the United Kingdom and followed prospectively between 1980 and 2006 for 46 580 person-years. There were 370 deaths, including 190 from coronary heart disease (CHD) and 90 from cancer. The standardized mortality ratio (compared with the population in England and Wales) was calculated before and from 1 January 1992. In patients aged 20–79 years, CHD mortality fell significantly by 37% (95% CI = 7–56) from 3.4- to 2.1-fold excess. Primary prevention resulted in a 48% reduction in CHD mortality from 2.0-fold excess to none, with a smaller reduction of nearly 25% in patients with established disease. Coronary mortality was reduced more in women than in men. In patients without known CHD at registration, all-cause mortality from 1992 was 33% (21–43), lower than in the general population, mainly due to a 37% (21–50) lower risk of fatal cancer. Conclusion The results emphasize the importance of early identification of FH and treatment with statins.

Use of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol gene score to distinguish patients with polygenic and monogenic familial hypercholesterolaemia: a case-control study

BACKGROUND Familial hypercholesterolaemia is a common autosomal-dominant disorder caused by mutations in three known genes. DNA-based cascade testing is recommended by UK guidelines to identify affected relatives; however, about 60% of patients are mutation-negative. We assessed the hypothesis that familial hypercholesterolaemia can also be caused by an accumulation of common small-effect LDL-C-raising alleles. METHODS In November, 2011, we assembled a sample of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia from three UK-based sources and compared them with a healthy control sample from the UK Whitehall II (WHII) study. We also studied patients from a Belgian lipid clinic (Hôpital de Jolimont, Haine St-Paul, Belgium) for validation analyses. We genotyped participants for 12 common LDL-C-raising alleles identified by the Global Lipid Genetics Consortium and constructed a weighted LDL-C-raising gene score. We compared the gene score distribution among patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia with no confirmed mutation, those with an identified mutation, and controls from WHII. FINDINGS We recruited 321 mutation-negative UK patients (451 Belgian), 319 mutation-positive UK patients (273 Belgian), and 3020 controls from WHII. The mean weighted LDL-C gene score of the WHII participants (0.90 [SD 0.23]) was strongly associated with LDL-C concentration (p=1.4 x 10(-77); R(2)=0.11). Mutation-negative UK patients had a significantly higher mean weighted LDL-C score (1.0 [SD 0.21]) than did WHII controls (p=4.5 x 10(-16)), as did the mutation-negative Belgian patients (0.99 [0.19]; p=5.2 x 10(-20)). The score was also higher in UK (0.95 [0.20]; p=1.6 x 10(-5)) and Belgian (0.92 [0.20]; p=0.04) mutation-positive patients than in WHII controls. 167 (52%) of 321 mutation-negative UK patients had a score within the top three deciles of the WHII weighted LDL-C gene score distribution, and only 35 (11%) fell within the lowest three deciles. INTERPRETATION In a substantial proportion of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia without a known mutation, their raised LDL-C concentrations might have a polygenic cause, which could compromise the efficiency of cascade testing. In patients with a detected mutation, a substantial polygenic contribution might add to the variable penetrance of the disease. FUNDING British Heart Foundation, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Schering-Plough, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Health and Safety Executive, Department of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, National Institute on Aging, Agency for Health Care Policy Research, John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation Research Networks on Successful Midlife Development and Socio-economic Status and Health, Unilever, and Departments of Health and Trade and Industry.

Utility of genetic and non-genetic risk factors in prediction of type 2 diabetes: Whitehall II prospective cohort study

Objectives To assess the performance of a panel of common single nucleotide polymorphisms (genotypes) associated with type 2 diabetes in distinguishing incident cases of future type 2 diabetes (discrimination), and to examine the effect of adding genetic information to previously validated non-genetic (phenotype based) models developed to estimate the absolute risk of type 2 diabetes. Design Workplace based prospective cohort study with three 5 yearly medical screenings. Participants 5535 initially healthy people (mean age 49 years; 33% women), of whom 302 developed new onset type 2 diabetes over 10 years. Outcome measures Non-genetic variables included in two established risk models—the Cambridge type 2 diabetes risk score (age, sex, drug treatment, family history of type 2 diabetes, body mass index, smoking status) and the Framingham offspring study type 2 diabetes risk score (age, sex, parental history of type 2 diabetes, body mass index, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose)—and 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with susceptibility to type 2 diabetes. Cases of incident type 2 diabetes were defined on the basis of a standard oral glucose tolerance test, self report of a doctor’s diagnosis, or the use of anti-diabetic drugs. Results A genetic score based on the number of risk alleles carried (range 0-40; area under receiver operating characteristics curve 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.58) and a genetic risk function in which carriage of risk alleles was weighted according to the summary odds ratios of their effect from meta-analyses of genetic studies (area under receiver operating characteristics curve 0.55, 0.51 to 0.59) did not effectively discriminate cases of diabetes. The Cambridge risk score (area under curve 0.72, 0.69 to 0.76) and the Framingham offspring risk score (area under curve 0.78, 0.75 to 0.82) led to better discrimination of cases than did genotype based tests. Adding genetic information to phenotype based risk models did not improve discrimination and provided only a small improvement in model calibration and a modest net reclassification improvement of about 5% when added to the Cambridge risk score but not when added to the Framingham offspring risk score. Conclusion The phenotype based risk models provided greater discrimination for type 2 diabetes than did models based on 20 common independently inherited diabetes risk alleles. The addition of genotypes to phenotype based risk models produced only minimal improvement in accuracy of risk estimation assessed by recalibration and, at best, a minor net reclassification improvement. The major translational application of the currently known common, small effect genetic variants influencing susceptibility to type 2 diabetes is likely to come from the insight they provide on causes of disease and potential therapeutic targets.

Lipid-related markers and cardiovascular disease prediction.

CONTEXT The value of assessing various emerging lipid-related markers for prediction of first cardiovascular events is debated. OBJECTIVE To determine whether adding information on apolipoprotein B and apolipoprotein A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 to total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) improves cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual records were available for 165,544 participants without baseline CVD in 37 prospective cohorts (calendar years of recruitment: 1968-2007) with up to 15,126 incident fatal or nonfatal CVD outcomes (10,132 CHD and 4994 stroke outcomes) during a median follow-up of 10.4 years (interquartile range, 7.6-14 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Discrimination of CVD outcomes and reclassification of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<10%), intermediate (10%-<20%), and high (≥20%) risk. RESULTS The addition of information on various lipid-related markers to total cholesterol, HDL-C, and other conventional risk factors yielded improvement in the models discrimination: C-index change, 0.0006 (95% CI, 0.0002-0.0009) for the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I; 0.0016 (95% CI, 0.0009-0.0023) for lipoprotein(a); and 0.0018 (95% CI, 0.0010-0.0026) for lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass. Net reclassification improvements were less than 1% with the addition of each of these markers to risk scores containing conventional risk factors. We estimated that for 100,000 adults aged 40 years or older, 15,436 would be initially classified at intermediate risk using conventional risk factors alone. Additional testing with a combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I would reclassify 1.1%; lipoprotein(a), 4.1%; and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass, 2.7% of people to a 20% or higher predicted CVD risk category and, therefore, in need of statin treatment under Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. CONCLUSION In a study of individuals without known CVD, the addition of information on the combination of apolipoprotein B and A-I, lipoprotein(a), or lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 mass to risk scores containing total cholesterol and HDL-C led to slight improvement in CVD prediction.

Factor VIII, ABO blood group and the incidence of ischaemic heart disease

Summary. Relations of factor VIII activity, FVIIIC, and von Willebrand factor antigen (vWFAg), with ischaemic heart disease (IHD) were examined in 1393 men aged between 40 and 64 years at entry to the Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHS) who experienced 178 first major episodes of IHD during an average follow‐up period of 16.1 years. After allowing for the large factor VIII differences between the main ABO blood groups, FVIIIC was probably associated with IHD incidence, possibly more strongly with fatal than non‐fatal episodes. Thus, an increase of 1 standard deviation in FVIIIC raised the risk of fatal IHD by about 28%. vWFAg was also significantly associated with fatal events. The observed relation of FVIIIC with IHD incidence probably underestimates the true strength of the association because of the considerable within‐person and laboratory variability in factor VIII measurements. FVIIIC and vWFAg were strongly correlated (r= 0.57) and in statistical terms there may be little to choose between them in long‐term studies of IHD. Taking account of evidence that haemophiliacs seem to experience less IHD than expected, high factor VIII levels may contribute to the incidence of IHD by increasing thrombogenic potential. The incidence of IHD was significantly higher in those of blood group AB than in those of groups O, A or B, particularly for fatal events. There was no evidence that the FVIIIC and vWFAg associations with IHD are determined by ABO group. The factor VIII and ABO blood group effects therefore appeared to be independent. Group AB may be a genetic marker of characteristics influencing other indices of IHD risk such as short stature, NPHS men (though not women) of group AB being about 2 cm shorter than those of other groups.

Critical appraisal of CRP measurement for the prediction of coronary heart disease events: new data and systematic review of 31 prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND Non-uniform reporting of relevant relationships and metrics hampers critical appraisal of the clinical utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) measurement for prediction of later coronary events. METHODS We evaluated the predictive performance of CRP in the Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHS-II) and the Edinburgh Artery Study (EAS) comparing discrimination by area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration and reclassification. We set the findings in the context of a systematic review of published studies comparing different available and imputed measures of prediction. Risk estimates per-quantile of CRP were pooled using a random effects model to infer the shape of the CRP-coronary event relationship. RESULTS NPHS-II and EAS (3441 individuals, 309 coronary events): CRP alone provided modest discrimination for coronary heart disease (AUC 0.61 and 0.62 in NPHS-II and EAS, respectively) and only modest improvement in the discrimination of a Framingham-based risk score (FRS) (increment in AUC 0.04 and -0.01, respectively). Risk models based on FRS alone and FRS + CRP were both well calibrated and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 8.5% in NPHS-II and 8.8% in EAS with four risk categories, falling to 4.9% and 3.0% for 10-year coronary disease risk threshold of 15%. Systematic review (31 prospective studies 84 063 individuals, 11 252 coronary events): pooled inferred values for the AUC for CRP alone were 0.59 (0.57, 0.61), 0.59 (0.57, 0.61) and 0.57 (0.54, 0.61) for studies of <5, 5-10 and >10 years follow up, respectively. Evidence from 13 studies (7201 cases) indicated that CRP did not consistently improve performance of the Framingham risk score when assessed by discrimination, with AUC increments in the range 0-0.15. Evidence from six studies (2430 cases) showed that CRP provided statistically significant but quantitatively small improvement in calibration of models based on established risk factors in some but not all studies. The wide overlap of CRP values among people who later suffered events and those who did not appeared to be explained by the consistently log-normal distribution of CRP and a graded continuous increment in coronary risk across the whole range of values without a threshold, such that a large proportion of events occurred among the many individuals with near average levels of CRP. CONCLUSIONS CRP does not perform better than the Framingham risk equation for discrimination. The improvement in risk stratification or reclassification from addition of CRP to models based on established risk factors is small and inconsistent. Guidance on the clinical use of CRP measurement in the prediction of coronary events may require updating in light of this large comparative analysis.

Genetic causes of familial hypercholesterolaemia in patients in the UK: relation to plasma lipid levels and coronary heart disease risk

Aims: To determine the relative frequency of mutations in three different genes (low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR), APOB, PCSK9), and to examine their effect in development of coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients with clinically defined definite familial hypercholesterolaemia in UK. Patients and methods: 409 patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia patients (158 with CHD) were studied. The LDLR was partially screened by single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) (exons 3, 4, 6–10 and 14) and by using a commercial kit for gross deletions or rearrangements. APOB (p.R3500Q) and PCSK9 (p.D374Y) were detected by specific assays. Coding exons of PCSK9 were screened by SSCP. Results: Mutations were detected in 253 (61.9%) patients: 236 (57.7%) carried LDLR, 10 (2.4%) carried APOB p.Q3500 and 7 (1.7%) PCSK9 p.Y374. No additional mutations were identified in PCSK9. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking and systolic blood pressure, compared to those with no detectable mutation, the odds ratio of having CHD in those with an LDLR mutation was 1.84 (95% CI 1.10 to 3.06), for APOB 3.40 (0.71 to 16.36), and for PCSK9 19.96 (1.88 to 211.5; p = 0.001 overall). The high risk in patients carrying LDLR and PCSK9 p.Y374 was partly explained by their higher pretreatment cholesterol levels (LDLR, PCSK9 and no mutation, 10.29 (1.85), 13.12 and 9.85 (1.90) mmol/l, respectively, p = 0.001). The post-statin treatment lipid profile in PCSK9 p.Y374 carriers was worse than in patients with no identified mutation (LDL-C, 6.77 (1.82) mmol/l v 4.19 (1.26) mmol/l, p = 0.001, HDL-C 1.09 (0.27) mmol/l v 1.36 (0.36) mmol/l, p = 0.03). Conclusions: The higher CHD risk in patients carrying PCSK9 p.Y347 or a detected LDLR mutation supports the usefulness of DNA testing in the diagnosis and management of patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia. Mutations in PCSK9 appear uncommon in patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia in UK.

Effect modification by population dietary folate on the association between MTHFR genotype, homocysteine, and stroke risk: a meta-analysis of genetic studies and randomised trials

Summary Background The MTHFR 677C→T polymorphism has been associated with raised homocysteine concentration and increased risk of stroke. A previous overview showed that the effects were greatest in regions with low dietary folate consumption, but differentiation between the effect of folate and small-study bias was difficult. A meta-analysis of randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions showed no reduction in coronary heart disease events or stroke, but the trials were generally set in populations with high folate consumption. We aimed to reduce the effect of small-study bias and investigate whether folate status modifies the association between MTHFR 677C→T and stroke in a genetic analysis and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Methods We established a collaboration of genetic studies consisting of 237 datasets including 59 995 individuals with data for homocysteine and 20 885 stroke events. We compared the genetic findings with a meta-analysis of 13 randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering treatments and stroke risk (45 549 individuals, 2314 stroke events, 269 transient ischaemic attacks). Findings The effect of the MTHFR 677C→T variant on homocysteine concentration was larger in low folate regions (Asia; difference between individuals with TT versus CC genotype, 3·12 μmol/L, 95% CI 2·23 to 4·01) than in areas with folate fortification (America, Australia, and New Zealand, high; 0·13 μmol/L, −0·85 to 1·11). The odds ratio (OR) for stroke was also higher in Asia (1·68, 95% CI 1·44 to 1·97) than in America, Australia, and New Zealand, high (1·03, 0·84 to 1·25). Most randomised trials took place in regions with high or increasing population folate concentrations. The summary relative risk (RR) of stroke in trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions (0·94, 95% CI 0·85 to 1·04) was similar to that predicted for the same extent of homocysteine reduction in large genetic studies in populations with similar folate status (predicted RR 1·00, 95% CI 0·90 to 1·11). Although the predicted effect of homocysteine reduction from large genetic studies in low folate regions (Asia) was larger (RR 0·78, 95% CI 0·68 to 0·90), no trial has evaluated the effect of lowering of homocysteine on stroke risk exclusively in a low folate region. Interpretation In regions with increasing levels or established policies of population folate supplementation, evidence from genetic studies and randomised trials is concordant in suggesting an absence of benefit from lowering of homocysteine for prevention of stroke. Further large-scale genetic studies of the association between MTHFR 677C→T and stroke in low folate settings are needed to distinguish effect modification by folate from small-study bias. If future randomised trials of homocysteine-lowering interventions for stroke prevention are undertaken, they should take place in regions with low folate consumption. Funding Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Association of telomere length with type 2 diabetes, oxidative stress and UCP2 gene variation

Objective High oxidative stress potentially leads to accelerated telomere shortening and consequent premature cell senescence, implicated in type 2 diabetes (T2D) development. Therefore, we studied the association of leukocyte telomere length (LTL) with the presence of T2D, as well as the effect on the patients’ LTL of plasma oxidative stress and of variation in UCP2, a gene involved in the mitochondrial production of reactive oxygen species. Methods Mean LTL was determined in 569 Caucasian, 103 South Asian and 70 Afro-Caribbean T2D patients aged from 24 to 92 years, 81 healthy Caucasian male students aged from 18 to 28 years and 367 healthy Caucasian men aged from 40 to 61 years by real-time PCR. Plasma total antioxidant status (TAOS) was measured in the T2D patients by a photometric microassay. The patients were also genotyped for the UCP2 functional variants −866G>A and A55V. Results Afro-Carribeans had 510 bp longer mean length compared to Caucasians (p < 0.0001) and 500 bp longer than South Asians (p = 0.004). T2D subjects displayed shorter age-adjusted LTL compared to controls [6.94(6.8–7.03) vs. 7.72(7.53–7.9), p < 0.001] with subjects in the middle and the lowest tertile of LTL having significantly higher odds ratios for T2D compared to those in the highest tertile [1.50(1.08–2.07) and 5.04(3.63–6.99), respectively, p < 0.0001]. In the patients, LTL was correlated negatively with age (r = −0.18, p < 0.0001) and positively with TAOS measures (r = 0.12, p = 0.01) after adjusting for age, while carriers of the UCP2 −866A allele had shorter age-adjusted LTL than common homozygotes [6.86(6.76–6.96) kb vs. 7.03(6.91–7.15) kb, p = 0.04]. Conclusion The present data suggest that shorter LTL is associated with the presence of T2D and this could be partially attributed to the high oxidative stress in these patients. The association of the UCP2 functional promoter variant with the LTL implies a link between mitochondrial production of reactive oxygen species and shorter telomere length in T2D.

A single serum glucose measurement predicts adverse outcomes across the whole range of acute coronary syndromes

Objectives: To analyse the relation between serum glucose concentration and hospital outcome across the whole spectrum of acute coronary syndromes. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of 2127 patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes. The patients were stratified into quartile groups (Q1 to Q4) defined by serum glucose concentrations of 5.8, 7.2, and 10.0 mmol/l. The relation between quartile group and major in-hospital complications was analysed. Results: The proportion of patients with acute myocardial infarction increased incrementally across the quartile groups, from 21.4% in Q1 to 47.9% in Q4 (p < 0.0001). The trend for frequency of in-hospital major complications was similar, particularly left ventricular failure (LVF) (Q1 6.4%, Q4 25.2%, p < 0.0001) and cardiac death (Q1 0.7%, Q4 6.1%, p < 0.0001). The relations were linear, each glucose quartile increment being associated with an odds ratio of 1.46 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27 to 1.70) for LVF and 1.52 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.97) for cardiac death. Although complication rates were higher for a discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction than for unstable angina, there was no evidence that the effects of serum glucose concentration were different for the two groups, there being no significant interaction with discharge diagnosis in the associations between glucose quartile and LVF (p = 0.69) or cardiac death (p = 0.17). Similarly there was no significant interaction with diabetic status in the associations between glucose quartile and LVF (p = 0.08) or cardiac death (p = 0.09). Conclusion: Admission glycaemia stratified patients with acute coronary syndromes according to their risk of in-hospital LVF and cardiac mortality. There was no detectable glycaemic threshold for these adverse effects. The prognostic correlates of admission glycaemia were unaffected by diabetic status and did not differ significantly between patients with acute myocardial infarction and those with unstable angina.