Taegu Kim

A Parameter Estimation of Bass Diffusion Model by the Hybrid of NLS and OLS

Department of Business Administration, Chungnam National UniversityThe Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it’s performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.

Characteristics of Korean Film Market by Using Social Network Analysis

최근 한국 영화시장은 높은 성장률을 거듭하면서 그 영향력을 해외로 넓히고 있다. 그에 따라 다양한 학문 영역에서 영화시장의 특성을 분석하기 위한 시도가 이루어져 왔다. 본 연구에서는 영화 간의 유사성 과 관련성을 기반으로 한 사회 연결망 분석을 통해 국내 시장에서 개봉된 영화들을 몇 개의 군집으로 나누 어 그 특성을 분석하였다. 장르, 등급, 배급사, 국적, 규모, 수익성 등의 여러 특성을 활용하여 얻은 연결망 은 몇 개의 군집으로 나뉘며, 각각의 군집에 대하여 군집을 규정지을 수 있는 대표적인 특성과 군집 별 대표로 선정된 영화들의 특성을 살펴보았다. 분석결과 장르에 비해 상영등급과 국적이 전체 영화시장을 각각의 군집으로 나누는 중요한 기준인 것으로 나타났으며, 영화의 수익성에 있어서도 군집 간 차이가 두 드러졌다. 더 나아가 확산 모형의 추정 결과는 영화의 성공과 입소문 효과의 연관성을 보여주고 있으며, 상대적으로 성공을 거두지 못한 영화들의 경우에는 높은 초기수요와 빠른 최대 시점을 갖는 단조 감소의 확산 패턴을 가지는 것으로 나타났다.

A Study on a Long-term Demand Forecasting and Characterization of Diffusion Process for Medical Equipments based on Diffusion Model

In this study, we explore the long-term demand forecasting of high-price medical equipments based on logistic and Bass diffusion model. We analyze the specific pattern of each equipment`s diffusion curve by interpreting the parameter estimates of Bass diffusion model. Our findings are as follows. First, ultrasonic imaging system, CT are in the stage of maturity and so, the future demands of them are not too large. Second, medical image processing unit is between growth stage and maturity stage and so, the demand is expected to increase considerably for two or three years. Third, MRI is in the stage of take-off and Mammmography X-ray system is in the stage of maturity but, estimates of the potential number of adopters based on logistic model is considerably different to that based on Bass diffusion model. It means that additional data for these two equipments should be collected and analyzed to obtain the reliable estimates of their demands. Fourth, medical image processing unit have the largest q value. It means that the word-of-mouth effect is important in the diffusion of this equipment. Fifth, for MRI and Ultrasonic system, q/p values have the relatively large value. It means that collective power has an important role in adopting these two equipments.

Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market

Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

Success Factors of Game Products by Using a Diffusion Model and Cluster Analysis

As the global game market has been more competitive, it has been important to analyze success factors of game products. In this paper, we applied a Bass Diffusion Model and Clustering Analysis to identify the success factors of games based on data from Steam, an international game platform. By using a diffusion model, we first categorize game products into two groups : successful and unsuccessful games. Then, each group has been analyzed by using clustering analysis based on product features such as genres, price, and minimum system requirements. As a result, success factors of a game have been identified. The result shows that customers in game industry appreciate sophisticated contents. Unlike many other industries, price is not considered as a key success factor in the game industry. Expecially, advanced independent video games (commonly referred to as indie games) with killer contents show competitiveness in the market.