Takanori Matsui

Initial design process of the sustainability science ontology for knowledge-sharing to support co-deliberation

Implementation of the sustainability science (SS) approach is often difficult because of poor communication between experts from different academic fields. We focused on ontology engineering as a method of knowledge structuring that supports the co-deliberation process. However, SS is too broad for a few experts to construct an ontology because SS targets and covers almost all existing research fields from the viewpoint of problem-solving. The N-iteration process is required for completing an SS ontology. In the present paper, we discuss the initial design process for constructing an ontology on SS from the aspect of a knowledge-sharing tool to support co-deliberation. First, we identified the SS ontology by referring to the existing literature. Second, we traced the structuring process of the SS ontology, which is independent of the existing research domain. Third, we compared the SS ontology with existing ontologies or concept structures on SS. Fourth, we assessed the SS ontology produced in the initial process in terms of relevance and coverage and addressed areas for improvement in order to facilitate co-deliberation among researchers from different domains. As a result of developing the SS ontology and applying it to the mapping tool that we developed based on the ontology, we found the following three points: the SS ontology enables us to define concepts relevant to SS without overlapping by distinguishing part-of and attribute-of relationships at the upper level of the ontology; the SS-based mapping tool successfully represents the potential countermeasures required by the targeted problem for all scientific fields except experimental engineering; however, the SS ontology requires further improvement in order to represent the conceptual linkage arising from compound and secondary problems and the fulfillment of classes at the lower hierarchy of Shortage problem, and requires slots for the entire hierarchy. In addition, based on the discussion of the areas for improvement, we found that missing slots and classes should be added in the process in which we use or improve tools corresponding to a variety of requirements for supporting co-deliberation. In this way, we are able to propose an incremental process for constructing the SS ontology from the aspect of a knowledge-sharing tool to support co-deliberation.

Co-design of national-scale future scenarios in Japan to predict and assess natural capital and ecosystem services

Although the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services has revealed that the development of scenarios is crucial for helping decision makers identify the potential impact of different policy options, there is a lack of reported scenario approach studies in Asia. A new 5-year research project (PANCES) has been developed for predicting and assessing the natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan using an integrated social–ecological system approach via the participation of 15 research institutions and more than 100 researchers. PANCES conducts the development of national-scale future scenarios for exploring potential changes in natural capital and ecosystem services, as well as human well-being, up to 2050 using key direct and indirect drivers including climate change, depopulation, and super-aging, as well as globalization and technological innovation. The Delphi method is employed to generate key drivers that determine different future pathways. Based on the two drivers for scenario axes identified by the Delphi survey and extensive discussion with project members and policy makers, four future scenarios are created, “Natural capital-based compact society”, “Natural capital-based dispersed society”, “Produced capital-based compact society”, and “Produced capital-based dispersed society”, respectively, in addition to the business-as-usual scenario. This study describes a novel approach for collectively designing national-scale future scenarios with qualitative storylines and a visual illustration of the developed scenarios in Japan.

Assessment of the challenge of sustainable recycling of municipal solid waste management in India

Municipal solid waste management is one of the most serious and most neglected areas of urban development which create environmental hazards confronting municipalities. Qualitative analysis of municipal solid waste in India identified barriers or incentives for recycling, resulted in the development factors. The PSIR framework with sensitive analysis is approach towards the focus on sustainable development. Necessary and beneficial relationship drawn among development factors revealed the collaborative web model for sustainable municipal solid waste management. The functionality of other factors in collaborative relationship greatly influences the success of sustainable municipal solid waste management in developing countries as India.

Spatially explicit residential and working population assumptions for projecting and assessing natural capital and ecosystem services in Japan

In scenario studies of biodiversity and ecosystem services, the population distribution is one of the key driving forces. In this study, we developed a coupling method for narrative scenarios and spatially explicit residential and working population designs for all of Japan as a common dataset for ecosystem scenario analysis implemented by 5-year project entitled “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)”. Four narrative scenarios were proposed by the PANCES project using two axes as major uncertainties: the population distribution and the capital preference. The residential population and the working population in primary industries were calculated using a gravity-based allocation algorithm in a manner consistent with the storylines of the PANCES scenarios. Using the population distribution assumption by scenario, the population was overlaid with the natural capital and the supply potential of ecosystem services. The results supported to understand the gaps between natural capital and maintainability, and the potential of ecosystem services and realizability. The spatially explicit population distribution data products are expected to help design the nature conservation strategy and governance option in terms of both social system and ecological system.

Knowledge Structuring Tool for Sustainability Science Based on Ontology Engineering

In Sustainability Science (SS) it is not only difficult to identify what needs to be solved but how to solve the problems once identified. There has been no consensus on underlying question of “What is structuring in SS?” This paper focuses on articulating in the form of a reference model a set of required elements, functions, and actions for structuring SS knowledge and on realizing a part of that reference model by developing a prototype knowledge system for mapping relevant concepts and their linkages in SS. First, we develop a reference model composed of five layers. Second, we develop an ontology-based mapping tool as a tentative solution at Layer 2 of the reference model. Third, we assess whether the developed tool is compliant with the reference model for SS. This study concluded that the developed tool can facilitate divergent exploration, the function of Layer 2.

Accounting shadow benefits of non-market food through food-sharing networks on Hachijo Island, Japan

People in rural areas often grow foods in their home gardens and share them through food-sharing networks. Besides the obvious economic benefits, such shared food via non-market transactions enriches the inhabitants’ lives by strengthening their social relationships and nutritional quality. These shadow benefits of non-market food are qualitatively recognized, but have not been fully integrated into formal accounting systems. Thus, the present study quantifies the shadow benefits of food-sharing networks by considering the non-market food distribution on Hachijo Island, Japan. Based on interviews and questionnaire surveys, we graphically visualized the structure of the food-sharing networks and the seasonality of the shared-food species. The study revealed the proportions of foods acquired through self-production, sharing networks and purchases by systematic food category, and quantified the monetary and nutritional values of the non-market foods. The island residents shared various seasonal foods within and beyond the island, and the non-market food was beneficial to their health. More than 20% of the islanders’ annual consumption of potatoes, vegetables, seafood, and fruits were obtained through the food-sharing networks. Non-market food largely saved the household expenditure and provided a wide variety of nutrients. As future perspectives of food-sharing networks, we suggest balancing market-based and non-market food provisions, promoting local production for local consumption, and designing local food resilience in disaster events.

Development of land-use scenarios using vegetation inventories in Japan

Abstract Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have major effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land change models can simulate future trends of ecosystem services under different scenarios to inform the actions of decision makers towards building a more sustainable society. LULC data are essential inputs for predicting future land changes. It is now possible to derive high-resolution LULC maps from satellite data using remote sensing techniques. However, the classification of land categories in these maps is too limited to sufficiently assess biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study aims to develop land-use scenarios, using an appropriate LULC map, to enable assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services at the national scale. First, we developed an LULC dataset using vegetation inventories based on field records of vegetation collected throughout the country in the periods 1978–1987, 1988–1998 and 1999–2014. The vegetation maps consist of over 905 vegetation categories, from which we aggregated the most prevalent categories into 9 LULC categories. Second, we created a business-as-usual scenario and plausible future scenarios on the land use change maps using the Land Change Model tool. In the process of developing the model, we considered key drivers including biophysical and socio-economic factors. The results showed some key land changes as consequences of intensive/extensive land-use interventions. These derived scenario maps can be used to assess the impacts of future land change on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Scenario analysis of land-use and ecosystem services of social-ecological landscapes: implications of alternative development pathways under declining population in the Noto Peninsula, Japan

Population-decline and subsequent underuse of social-ecological landscapes are increasingly being recognized as one of the crucial drivers behind the loss and deterioration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In line with this, the study aimed to explore how alternative development pathways influence future land-use patterns, biodiversity and ecosystem services against a rapidly declining population in the Noto peninsula of Japan. By combining land-use simulation and evaluation of ecosystem services, the study formulated four exploratory scenarios for 2050, assuming a contrasting level of the society’s reliance on domestic natural capital and different demographic patterns. At first, we analyzeds historical land-use changes between 1997 and 2007 and thereby simulated four plausible alternative scenarios using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network model. These scenarios were further used to quantify ecosystem services and landscape heterogeneity (as biodiversity indicator). The scenario analysis demonstrated that future land-use pattern could vary drastically depending on how the society utilize local natural capital even under the severe depopulation trend, whereas demographic patterns, in general, did not make discernible differences in land-use, biodiversity and ecosystem services. Nevertheless, a land-use change made considerable differences in the level of ecosystem services and landscape heterogeneity with varying degrees. Our analysis suggested that ecosystem services such as food production and nitrogen retention as well as landscape heterogeneity would decrease considerably by 2050 under the scenarios where the utilization of local natural capital decline and a significant amount of farmland are abandoned. Our findings highlight the vital role of land-use and agricultural policy in shaping the future availability of ecosystem services and biodiversity in this area.

Simulation of natural capital and ecosystem services in a watershed in Northern Japan focusing on the future underuse of nature: by linking forest landscape model and social scenarios

A quantitative scenario approach to compare the future state of natural capital and ecosystem services (ESs) plays a key role in facilitating decision-making for the sustainable management of landscapes. In Japan, the shrinking and aging population will likely lead to a situation of underuse of natural resources, resulting in rewilding of terrestrial ecosystems. This study conducted a quantitative scenario analysis of natural capital and ESs by linking model and social scenarios on a local scale. The case study area was the Bekanbeushi River Watershed in Northern Japan. LANDIS-II model (a forest landscape model) was used to simulate the vegetation dynamics in species composition, age structure, and biomass considering impacts of forest and pasture land management. Four “population distribution” and “capital preference” scenarios were translated into forest and pasture land management. The population distribution and capital preference assumptions resulted in different consequences for natural capital and ESs. The population distribution affected the spatial allocation of abandoned pasture land and level of isolation of managed pasture land. The capital preference assumptions largely affected the consequences for ESs. Finally, these simulation results demonstrated the capacity to feed quantitative information to the narrative scenarios. Our process-based approach provides insight into the relationships among social drivers, ecological processes, and the consequences that will affect natural capital and ESs, which can contribute to decision-making and sustainability design of regions, which may face issues associated with underuse in the future.

LESSONS AND CHALLENGES OF HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS

近年，様々な人材養成事業が競争的資金によるプロジェクト方式で展開されているが，高等教育機関によるプロジェクト運営の実態は十分に明らかにされていない．本研究では，科学技術振興調整費によって運営されている40の人材養成事業を対象として，「教育体制」と「運営体制」に関するアンケート調査を実施した．その結果，(1)多くの事業で社会人の受け入れが進んでいる，(2)9割以上が修了に対する認定制度を設けている，(3)経済的，人的資源を外部に依存する傾向が強い，(4)プロジェクト終了後は半数以上が大学院の専攻となる予定であることなどが明らかになった．以上から，社会人を対象とした教育体制づくりとそれを支える財政的支援の重要性や，適切な事業評価の必要性，学位授与に限らない修了認定制度の必要性が示唆された．