Takashi Sekiya

Roles of transport and chemistry processes in global ozone change on interannual and multidecadal time scales

This study investigates ozone changes and the individual impacts of transport and chemistry on those changes. We specifically examine (1) variation related to El Nino Southern Oscillation, which is a dominant mode of interannual variation of tropospheric ozone, and (2) long-term change between the 2000s and 2100s. During El Nino, the simulated ozone shows an increase (1 ppbv/K) over Indonesia, a decrease (2–10 ppbv/K) over the eastern Pacific in the tropical troposphere, and an increase (50 ppbv/K) over the eastern Pacific in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. These variations fundamentally agree with those observed by Microwave Limb Sounder/Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer instruments. The model demonstrates that tropospheric chemistry has a strong impact on the variation over the eastern Pacific in the tropical lower troposphere and that transport dominates the variation in the midlatitude lower stratosphere. Between the 2000s and 2100s, the model predicts an increase in the global burden of stratospheric ozone (0.24%/decade) and a decrease in the global burden of tropospheric ozone (0.82%/decade). The increase in the stratospheric burden is controlled by stratospheric chemistry. Tropospheric chemistry reduces the tropospheric burden by 1.07%/decade. However, transport (i.e., stratosphere-troposphere exchange and tropospheric circulation) causes an increase in the burden (0.25%/decade). Additionally, we test the sensitivity of ozone changes to increased horizontal resolution of the representation of atmospheric circulation and advection apart from any aspects of the nonlinearity of chemistry sensitivity to horizontal resolution. No marked difference is found in medium-resolution or high-resolution simulations, suggesting that the increased horizontal resolution of transport has a minor impact.

Evolution of stratospheric sulfate aerosol from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: Roles of aerosol microphysical processes

This study investigates the role of aerosol microphysics in stratospheric sulfate aerosol changes after the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption using an atmospheric general circulation model that is coupled interactively with a chemistry module and a modal aerosol microphysical module with three modes. Our model can reproduce the global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) observed by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II during June 1991 to January 1993. The model underestimates the observed SAOD before the eruption and after January 1993. The model also underestimates the integrated backscatter coefficient observed by ground-based lidar at Tsukuba, Naha, and Lauder. The modeled effective radius becomes larger (about 0.5 μm) and agrees with the balloon-borne measurements at Laramie, Wyoming (41°N, 105°W). We further investigate effects of the inclusion of evaporation along with the condensation processes and the inclusion of van der Waals and viscous forces in the coagulation processes. The inclusion of evaporation along with the condensation processes reduces the global mean effective radius by up to 0.04 μm and increases the global burden of stratospheric sulfate aerosols (about 15% in late 1993). The inclusion of van der Waals and viscous forces in the coagulation processes increases the global mean effective radius by up to 0.06–0.07 μm and decreases the global burden (15–30% in late 1993). The effects of van der Waals and viscous forces differ between two schemes. However, we do not conclude which simulation is superior because all simulations fall within error bars.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) tracks 2-3 peta-gram increase in carbon release to the atmosphere during the 2014-2016 El Niño

The powerful El Niño event of 2015–2016 – the third most intense since the 1950s – has exerted a large impact on the Earth’s natural climate system. The column-averaged CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) observations from satellites and ground-based networks are analyzed together with in situ observations for the period of September 2014 to October 2016. From the differences between satellite (OCO-2) observations and simulations using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we estimate that, relative to the mean annual fluxes for 2014, the most recent El Niño has contributed to an excess CO2 emission from the Earth’s surface (land + ocean) to the atmosphere in the range of 2.4 ± 0.2 PgC (1 Pg = 1015 g) over the period of July 2015 to June 2016. The excess CO2 flux is resulted primarily from reduction in vegetation uptake due to drought, and to a lesser degree from increased biomass burning. It is about the half of the CO2 flux anomaly (range: 4.4–6.7 PgC) estimated for the 1997/1998 El Niño. The annual total sink is estimated to be 3.9 ± 0.2 PgC for the assumed fossil fuel emission of 10.1 PgC. The major uncertainty in attribution arise from error in anthropogenic emission trends, satellite data and atmospheric transport.

Seasonal Response of North Western Pacific Marine Ecosystems to Deposition of Atmospheric Inorganic Nitrogen Compounds from East Asia

The contribution of the atmospheric deposition of inorganic nitrogen compounds produced in East Asia to the marine ecosystems of the North Western Pacific Ocean (NWPO) was investigated in this study using a 3-D lower trophic-marine ecosystem model (NEMURO) combined with an atmospheric regional chemical transport model (WRF-CMAQ). The monthly mean values for the wet and dry deposition of nitrogen compounds, including gases (HNO3 and NH3) and aerosol particles (NO3− and NH4+), were determined using the WRF-CMAQ for the NWPO from 2009–2016. These values were input into the NEMURO as an additional nitrogen source. The NEMURO indicated that the annual average chlorophyll mass concentration at the surface in the subtropical region (20°N–30°N; 125°E–150°E) of the NWPO increased from 0.04 to 0.10 mg/m3. Similarly, the gross primary productivity, integrated over sea depths of 0–200 m, increased from 85 to 147 mg C/m2/day because of this deposition. This study indicates that the supply of atmospheric inorganic nitrogen compounds from East Asia to the NWPO could have a high nutrient impact on the marine ecosystem in the subtropical region.