Tammie R. Covington

Evaluation of the Uncertainty in an Oral Reference Dose for Methylmercury Due to Interindividual Variability in Pharmacokinetics

An analysis of the uncertainty in guidelines for the ingestion of methylmercury (MeHg) due to human pharmacokinetic variability was conducted using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that describes MeHg kinetics in the pregnant human and fetus. Two alternative derivations of an ingestion guideline for MeHg were considered: the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reference dose (RfD) of 0.1 microgram/kg/day derived from studies of an Iraqi grain poisoning episode, and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry chronic oral minimal risk level (MRL) of 0.5 microgram/kg/day based on studies of a fish-eating population in the Seychelles Islands. Calculation of an ingestion guideline for MeHg from either of these epidemiological studies requires calculation of a dose conversion factor (DCF) relating a hair mercury concentration to a chronic MeHg ingestion rate. To evaluate the uncertainty in this DCF across the population of U.S. women of child-bearing age, Monte Carlo analyses were performed in which distributions for each of the parameters in the PBPK model were randomly sampled 1000 times. The 1st and 5th percentiles of the resulting distribution of DCFs were a factor of 1.8 and 1.5 below the median, respectively. This estimate of variability is consistent with, but somewhat less than, previous analyses performed with empirical, one-compartment pharmacokinetic models. The use of a consistent factor in both guidelines of 1.5 for pharmacokinetic variability in the DCF, and keeping all other aspects of the derivations unchanged, would result in an RfD of 0.2 microgram/kg/day and an MRL of 0.3 microgram/kg/day.

Review and evaluation of the potential impact of age- and gender-specific pharmacokinetic differences on tissue dosimetry.

In standard risk assessment methods for carcinogenic or noncarcinogenic chemicals, quantitative methods for evaluating interindividual variability are not explicitly considered. These differences are currently considered by the use of statistical confidence limits or default uncertainty factors. This investigation consisted of multiple tasks aimed at making quantitative predictions of interindividual differences in susceptibility by using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. Initially, a systematic, comprehensive review of the literature was conducted to identify any quantitative information related to gender- or age-specific physiological and biochemical factors that could influence susceptibility to chemical exposure. These data were then organized from a pharmacokinetic perspective by process and by chemical class to identify key factors likely to have a significant impact on susceptibility as it relates to internal target tissue dose. Overall, a large number of age- and gender-specific quantitative differences in pharmacokinetic parameters were identified. The majority of these differences were identified between neonates/children and adults, with fewer differences identified between young adults and the elderly. The next phase of this work consists of using PBPK models to develop examples of approaches through the development of case studies. The goal of the case studies is to continue to develop a methodology that incorporates PBPK modeling to assess the likelihood that a chemical or class of chemicals may present an age- or gender-specific risk. The case studies should also demonstrate practical methods for quantitatively incorporating information on age- and gender-specific pharmacokinetic differences in risk assessments for chemicals.

Investigation of the impact of pharmacokinetic variability and uncertainty on risks predicted with a pharmacokinetic model for chloroform

A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was performed on the Reitz et al. (Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol., 1990: 105, 443) physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model for chloroform. The analytical approach attempted to separately consider the impacts of interindividual variability and parameter uncertainty on the predicted values of the dose metrics in the model, as well as on liver cancer risk estimates obtained with the model. An important feature of the analytical approach was that an attempt was made to incorporate information on correlation between important parameters, for example, the observed correlation between total blood flow and alveolar ventilation rate. Using the published PBPK model for chloroform, the best estimate of the average population risk based on the preferred pharmacodynamic dose metric (PTDEAD), representing cell death, is 9.2 x 10(-7); this estimate is more than 500-fold lower than the risk estimate of 5.3 x 10(-4) based on an alternative pharmacokinetic dose metric (AVEMMB), which represents tissue adduct formation. However, when interindividual variability was considered the range of individual risks (from the 5th to the 95th percentile of the population) predicted with PTDEAD was extremely broad (from 3.0 x 10(-13) to 3.2 x 10(-4)), while individual risks predicted with AVEMMB only varied over a factor of four (from 1.9 x 10(-4) to 7.4 x 10(-4)). As a result, the upper 95th percentile of the distribution of individual risk estimates based on the preferred cell death metric were within a factor of three of the 95th percentile for the pharmacokinetic alternative. The crucial factor with respect to the much greater variability of chloroform risk estimates based on cell death is that the dose metric, PTDEAD, is exquisitely sensitive to variation of the parameters in the model defining the response of cells to the cytotoxicity of chloroform. Unfortunately, these key parameters are also highly uncertain, as well as strongly correlated. As a result it proved impossible to accurately quantify the additional impact of parameter uncertainty on the dose metrics and risk estimates for chloroform. In general, however, the approach used in this study should be useful for differentiating the impact of interindividual variability and parameter uncertainty on PBPK-based risk assessments of other chemicals where the sensitivity, uncertainty, and correlation of the key parameters are more limited.

Determination of a site-specific reference dose for methylmercury for fish-eating populations

Environmental risk-management decisions in the U.S. involving potential exposures to methylmercury currently use a reference dose (RfD) developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). This RfD is based on retrospective studies of an acute poisoning incident in Iraq in which grain contaminated with a methylmercury fungicide was inadvertently used in the baking of bread.1 The exposures, which were relatively high but lasted only a few months, were associated with neurological effects in both adults (primarily paresthesia) and infants (late walking, late talking, etc.). It is generally believed that the developing fetus represents a particularly sensitive subpopulation for the neurological effects of methylmercury. The USEPA derived an RfD of 0.1 g/kg/day based on benchmark dose (BMD) modeling of the combined neurological endpoints reported for children exposed in utero. This RfD included an uncertainty factor of 10 to consider human pharmacokinetic variability and database limitations (lack of data on multigeneration effects or possible long-term sequelae of perinatal exposure). Alcoa signed an Administrative Order of Consent for the conduct of a remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) at their Point Comfort Operations and the adjacent Lavaca Bay in Texas to address the effects of historical discharges of mercury-containing wastewater. In cooperation with the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission and USEPA Region VI, Alcoa conducted a baseline risk assessment to assess potential risk to human health and the environment. As a part of this assessment, Alcoa pursued the development of a site-specific RfD for methylmercury to specifically address the potential human health effects associated with the ingestion of contaminated finfish and shellfish from Lavaca Bay. Application of the published USEPA RfD to this site is problematic; while the study underlying the RfD represented acute exposure to relatively high concentrations of methylmercury, the exposures of concern for the Point Comfort site are from the chronic consumption of relatively low concentrations of methylmercury in fish. Since the publication of the USEPA RfD, several analyses of chronic exposure to methylmercury in fish-eating populations have been reported. The purpose of the analysis reported here was to evaluate the possibility of deriving an RfD for methylmercury, specifically for the case of fish ingestion, on the basis of these new studies. In order to better support the risk-management decisions associated with developing a remediation approach for the site in question, the analysis was designed to provide information on the distribution of acceptable ingestion rates across a population, which could reasonably be expected to be consistent with the results of the epidemiological studies of other fish-eating populations. Based on a review of the available literature on the effects of methylmercury, a study conducted with a population in the Seychelles Islands was selected as the critical study for this analysis. The exposures to methylmercury in this population result from chronic, multigenerational ingestion of contaminated fish. This prospective study was carefully conducted and analyzed, included a large cohort of mother-infant pairs, and was relatively free of confounding factors. The results of this study are essentially negative, and a no-observed-adverse-effect level (NOAEL) derived from the estimated exposures has recently been used by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) as the basis for a chronic oral minimal risk level (MRL) for methylmercury. In spite of the fact that no statistically significant effects were observed in this study, the data as reported are suitable for dose-response analysis using the BMD method. Evaluation of the BMD method used in this analysis, as well as in the current USEPA RfD, has demonstrated that the resulting 95% lower bound on the 10% benchmark dose (BMDL) represents a conservative estimate of the traditional NOAEL, and that it is superior to the use of “average” or “grouped” exposure estimates when dose-response information is available, as is the case for the Seychelles study. A more recent study in the Faroe Islands, which did report statistically significant associations between methylmercury exposure and neurological effects, could not be used for dose-response modeling due to inadequate reporting of the data and confounding from co-exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). BMD modeling over the wide range of neurological endpoints reported in the Seychelles study yielded a lowest BMDL for methylmercury in maternal hair of 21 ppm. This BMDL was then converted to an expected distribution of daily ingestion rates across a population using Monte Carlo analysis with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to evaluate the impact of interindividual variability. The resulting distribution of ingestion rates at the BMDL had a geometric mean of 1.60 g/kg/day with a geometric standard deviation of 1.33; the 1st, 5th, and 10th percentiles of the distribution were 0.86, 1.04, and 1.15 g/kg/day. In place of the use of an uncertainty factor of 3 for pharmacokinetic variability, as is done in the current RfD, one of these lower percentiles of the daily ingestion rate distribution provides a scientifically based, conservative basis for taking into consideration the impact of pharmacokinetic variability across the population. On the other hand, it was felt that an uncertainty factor of 3 for database limitations should be used in the current analysis. Although there can be high confidence in the benchmark-estimated NOAEL of 21 ppm in the Seychelles study, some results in the New Zealand and Faroe Islands studies could be construed to suggest the possibility of effects at maternal hair concentrations below 10 ppm. In addition, while concerns regarding the possibility of chronic sequelae are not supported by the available data, neither can they be absolutely ruled out. The use of an uncertainty factor of 3 is equivalent to using a NOAEL of 7 ppm in maternal hair, which provides additional protection against the possibility that effects could occur at lower concentrations in some populations. Based on the analysis described above, the distribution of acceptable daily ingestion rates (RfDs) recommended to serve as the basis for site-specific risk-management decisions at Alcoa’s Point Comfort Operations ranges from approximately 0.3 to 1.1 g/kg/day, with a population median (50th percentile) of 0.5 g/kg/day. By analogy with USEPA guidelines for the use of percentiles in applications of distributions in exposure assessments, the 10th percentile provides a reasonably conservative measure. On this basis, a site-specific RfD of 0.4 g/kg/day is recommended.

Data for Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling in Neonatal Animals: Physiological Parameters in Mice and Sprague-Dawley Rats

ABSTRACTRecent scientific and policy initiatives have resulted in increased interest in risk to fetuses, infants, and children and consideration of how such risks should be evaluated. A useful way of addressing this issue is to use physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to compare the tissue dose that children and adults receive for a given amount of a chemical ingested or inhaled. The response in children and adults for a given tissue dose can also be compared. To aid in the development of age-specific PBPK models for experimental animals, we have collected information on physiological parameters in neonates and young animals, through 60 days of age. Our effort focused on generic physiological values, such as tissue weight (termed tissue volume in the context of PBPK modeling), intake (alveolar ventilation, food intake, water intake), and flows (blood flows to tissues, bile flow, creatinine clearance, and glomerular filtration rate). To date, parameters for Sprague-Dawley rats and mice of mu...

CHAPTER 8:Modeling Organophosphorus Chemical Warfare Nerve Agents: A Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic–Pharmacodynamic (PBPK-PD) Model of VX

In order to improve the risk estimates for VX exposures, the pharmacodynamics and, consequently, the pharmacokinetics must be better understood. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PBPK-PD) models have proven to be useful analytical tools for this task. To date, relatively few PBPK models have been developed to describe the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of chemical warfare nerve agents. The model described in this chapter is a PBPK-PD model for VX exposure based upon previous PBPK-PD models with the goal of developing a multispecies and multi-route model. The current model simulates exposure in guinea pigs via the intravenous, subcutaneous or dermal route and predicts the pharmacokinetics of VX in the blood and various tissues as well as the pharmacodynamics through the incorporation of B-esterase inhibition. Datasets used for model development and validation include doses via the intravenous, subcutaneous and dermal routes that ranged from 0.1 to 2 lethal doses, 50% (LD50). In general, the simulations are quite good with predictions within 2 standard deviations for most of the data points. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted for all three dose routes. While sensitivity coefficients for the intravenous route are more varied, those for the subcutaneous and dermal routes are primarily less than or equal to 2 in absolute value.